The UFC hits the road this weekend with a card in Seattle, Washington. We've got 12 fights at the Climate Pledge Arena, including former two-division champion Henry Cejudo taking on Song Yadong in the main event. The prelims start at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card at 10.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Seattle odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Seattle Predictions & Luck Ratings
Song Yadong (-278) vs. Henry Cejudo (+225)
When this fight was first booked, I assumed it would be Cejudo's retirement fight. "Triple C" has gone 0-2 since coming back in 2023, and it would make sense to give him one last main event.
Apparently, that's not the case, as Cejudo is looking to make one more title run. The 38-year-old is obviously past his prime, but his prime was that of arguably the best combat sports athlete ever — so he can backslide a bit and still be a top fighter.
Yadong's two-fight winning streak was snapped by another former champion, Petr Yan, his last time out, but he has won five of his last seven overall. Throughout his career, he's typically fared well against everyone but the top five or so fighters.
While I'm not confident Cejudo is still at that level, he was competitive in losses to Aljamain Sterling (a split decision) and Merab Dvalshivili since returning. Coupled with his wrestling style typically being Yadong's kryptonite, I'm willing to take a sprinkle at +225.
The line seems to be rising after opening much lower, though, so no need to rush the bet.
Verdict: Henry Cejudo Undervalued
Ibo Aslan (-166) vs. Ion Cutetlaba (+140)
The featured prelim bout is between two light heavyweight knockout artists, with Ibo Aslan opening as a moderate favorite.
I'm surprised that line isn't wider, though. Aslan has just one loss in his career — a submission against Anton Turkalj that he later avenged — while Cutelaba is 3-7 across his last ten fights in the UFC.
While Cutelaba has fought tougher competition in that span, a split decision win over a UFC debutant in his last fight doesn't inspire much confidence. Either man could pick up a quick knockout here, but Aslan has more overall tools and fewer durability questions.
Jump on Aslan's -150 line at Caesars before it's gone.
Verdict: Ibo Aslan Undervalued
Andre Fili (-120) vs. Melquizael Costa (+100)
I'm not betting it myself just yet, but I wanted to draw attention to this one because of some early line movement.
This one opened with Andre Fili at -105 on DraftKings, and most books have started to creep his way early in the week. Almost 80% of Tapology predictions are also on Fili, which typically means bets will start coming in on his side.
FanDuel still has -113 on Fili, and there's a decent chance the comeback on Melquizael Costa will move past +113 at some point this week, so it's an opportunity to set up a potential arbitrage opportunity if that's something you're interested in, particularly if you have an even better line available somewhere.
Verdict: Andre Fili Undervalued
Modestas Bukauskas (-325) vs. Rafael Cerqueria (+260)
Rafael Cerqueria was set to compete in the Contender Series in 2024 but was called up to fight Ibo Aslan at UFC 308. That didn't go well, with the Brazilian suffering a knockout loss in less than a minute.
However, it also doesn't tell us much about Cerqueria, who was undefeated with ten finishes to that point in his career.
Modestas Bukauskas is a solidly mid-level UFC fighter, going 1-3 since returning to the promotion in 2023, but with those wins coming against lower-level competition.
I'm not at all confident that Cerqueria is better than that, but with odds as high as +265 at Caesars I'm willing to find out with a small (half unit) bet.
Verdict: Rafael Cerqueria Undervalued
