Check out our UFC Seattle predictions for the Saturday, February 12, event live from the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Seattle Moneyline Projections
UFC Seattle Prop Projections
UFC Seattle Best Bets
Sean Zerillo: Nikolay Veretnnikov vs. Austin Vanderford
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:00 p.m. ET
Austin Vanderford will make his UFC debut on Saturday in a short-notice matchup against Nikolay Veretnnikov, who was initially supposed to fight on last week's card against Billy Ray Goff.
Vanderford – who challenged Gegard Mousasi for the Middleweight title in Bellator – is a former NAIA National Champion wrestler with the requisite grappling skillset to control this fight on the mat or up against the cage.
Veternnikov is the better striker and carries significantly more power, but he has questionable cardio and has looked like a fish on his back against lesser wrestlers than Vanderford.
He's undoubtedly live to an early knockout, but if Veretnnikov cannot close the show early, Vanderford should gain momentum the longer the fight goes.
I projected Vanderford as a -131 favorite (56.6% implied) in this fight and would bet his moneyline up to -120 (54.5%) at just over a two percent edge compared to my fair odds. You may find better odds live after Round 1.
I also show slight value on the fight to go the distance or reach a decision at plus money (projected -107) and for Vanderford to win by decision (projected +180, listed +220); I'll save the latter for round-robin consideration.
The Pick: Austin Vanderford -110 (DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Ricky Simon vs. Javid Basharat
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
DraftKings has gotten much sharper with their point spread lines in recent weeks, aggressively pricing them in fights expected to go the distance. However, in this case I don't think they've gone far enough.
That's because Ricky Simon is perfectly situated to take at least one round from Javid Basharat in their prelim matchup at UFC Seattle.
Basharat is yet to finish any of his UFC victories, while Simon's only stoppage loss in the last five years came in a five round fight. Both men are arguably at their best when grappling, but Simon is the more persistent wrestler averaging more than five takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.
All it would take for Simon to cover this line is controlling at least one of the three rounds with his wrestling, as well as not being finished. While Simon is on a losing streak, he's managed to win a round in all three of those fights on at least one judge's scorecard.
On the flip side, none of Basharat's UFC wins came against opponents with winning records in the promotion. Despite that, at least one judge thought he dropped a round in ever one of those wins.
Given how big of a step up in competition Simon is, I don't expect Basharat to dominate all three rounds. Besides the point spread bet at DraftKings, I'm also taking a sprinkle on Simon outright as ESPNBet, where his moneyline is a juicy +210. I talked about how I'm structuring those bets on our UFC Seattle Podcast:
The Pick: Ricky Simon +3.5 -140 (DraftKings)
John Lanfranca: Andre Fili vs. Melquizael Costa
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET
Andre Fili, a veteran of 23 fights inside the UFC organization, finds himself as a slight underdog against Melquizael Costa after opening as a favorite. I disagree with the line movement, as there are several area where Fili may still have an edge.
Fili is a 13 year veteran of the UFC, and he has taken on a who’s who of the lightweight and featherweight divisions. The perception by many at first glance of this matchup may be that Costa has the better submission game and carries an edge in the wrestling department, but I do not see it the same way.
Even with the daunting strength of schedule Fili has endured, he has more than held his own, boasting a 70% takedown defense and slick scrambling game when the fight does hit the mat. In fact, it’s Costa who has been taken down four times on two separate occasions, something that has only happened once to Andre Fili since 2017.
Costa is 2-2 in the UFC, with two wins coming in fights he was supposed to get his hand raised according to oddsmakers. The two times he had to step up in competition, he was finished inside of two rounds. When it comes to durability, Costa may be the younger of the two men, but Fili is the more battle tested. Fili has just two knockout losses on his record over his past 17 bouts inside the octagon.
I don't foresee Costa in out-grappling the veteran Fili, thus, much of this fight should play out in kickboxing range. Fili has the better movement, a three inch reach advantage, and will be able to lead the dance in output due to the lack of power coming back in his direction from Costa.
Fighting behind a strong jab and stinging leg kicking attack, Fili is undoubtedly the more proven commodity when it comes to striking against a higher level of competition. He should neutralize any grappling attempts from Costa and use his underrated power to win moments in this fight – I love the value on the more experienced fighter Fili here.
The Pick: Andre Fili +100 (DraftKings)
Bryan Fonseca: Jean Matsumoto vs. Rob Font
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx.10:15 p.m. ET
It's always a risk taking a popular underdog, but Rob Font is well-liked this week, justifiably so.This is a "fraud check" spot for the undefeated Jean Matsumoto, who will be taking a step-up in competition here.
Font is one of the better strikers (and straight up boxers) the UFC has. He also will be looking to showcase these skills against Matsumoto, who was took 89 significant strikes from Brad Katona in his last bout in October.
That also marks the last time we saw Font, who decisioned Kyler Phillips in the co-main event. Matsumoto should win if he's legitimate, but we don't know. His 16-0 seems padded, and Font has legitimate wins over Phillips, Adrian Yañez, Cody Garbrandt, Marlon Moraes, and Ricky Simón within the last five plus years of competition.
The style of this fight may also play to his hands. Matsumoto being a muay thai fighter plays into how Font wants to navigate this bout, meaning two things for me. One, Font will have opportunities to outstrike a hittable opponent. Two, the +700 win via KO/TKO for Font — of which he has nine in his career — might be worth a little nibble, even if a decision is more likely.
The Pick: Rob Font +142 DraftKings | Sprinkle on KO/TKO at +700
