Anthony Smith vs. Ryan Spann Odds
The UFC Singapore co-main event on Saturday morning features a rematch at light heavyweight between Anthony Smith and Ryan Spann.
Their first meeting headlined a 2021 card at the UFC Apex facility and was subsequently scheduled for five rounds.
However, between the bad blood and the volatile styles pairing in tow, the fight didn't even make it to the second frame before Smith was able to secure a rear-naked choke for the win.
Both men are coming off tough losses as they had into UFC Singapore (5 a.m. ET, ESPN+), but Smith hasn't won since their initial encounter, notably struggling with issues in and out of the octagon.
Let's preview Smith vs. Spann 2 with my best bet for the UFC Singapore co-headliner.
Tale of the Tape
| Smith | Spann | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 36-18 | 21-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:42 | 4:34 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'5" |
| Weight | 205.5 pounds | 205 pounds |
| Reach | 76 inches | 79 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/26/1988 | 8/24/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 2.96 | 3.28 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 4.49 | 3.32 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 48% |
| Take Down Average | 0.48 | 1.64 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 37% |
| TD Def | 47% | 45% |
| Submission Average | 0.7 | 1.9 |
As mentioned in the previous section, Smith and Spann are both prone to volatile fights whether or not they're facing one another.
Spann, for example, has largely been a one-round wrecking ball throughout the majority of his career.
From bombing right hands and hooks to opportunistic submissions, Spann offers his opponents very few areas for shelter.
Moving well for a man of his size, Spann is also an athletic and agile scrambler who isn't afraid to take chances and ride the proverbial lightning.
That said, those adventurous instincts – coupled with some questionable defense – have been common avenues in fights in which Spann met his demise.
I'll be curious to see who elects to grapple first this weekend, but I'm also wondering if Smith will look any better against another longer opponent this time around.
…to be continued! 👀
Anthony Smith and Ryan Spann rematch at #UFCSingapore this Saturday morning!! pic.twitter.com/bPBT8qiljQ
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) August 24, 2023
Aside from the fact that Smith has not-so-secretly been susceptible to leg kicks in past fights, the former title challenger looked shaky opposite a lengthy Johnny Walker the last time out.
Although Smith's left hooks seemed to have Spann's name written all over them in their first encounter, I'm not sure that will be Plan A this time around.
But if Smith does elect to exercise his on-paper ground advantage, then he'll need to respect the front chokes of Spann (especially if he gets stung before shooting).
Smith vs. Spann Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are slightly favoring the younger man, listing Spann -132 and Smith +107 as of this writing.
Considering that I came into this fight fully expecting to pick and play Spann to win in Round 1 (which I still believe is the best angle to play him, by the way), I can't say that I'm surprised to see the betting spread above.
However, after rewatching the tape on both men, I had a hard time finding any sort of justification for co-signing Spann as a favorite in this fight.
Lack of extended sample sizes aside, Spann still appears to make wild decisions and put himself out of position, win or lose.
Spann has also only officially clocked in two leg kicks throughout his entire UFC career, which doesn't exactly inspire my confidence in the one-round dynamo to take apart Smith in that department.
Say what you will about Smith, but even weathered and rough versions of "Lionheart" have traditionally been hard to get out of there fast – particularly at light heavyweight.
Whether he was facing Jon Jones for five rounds or fighting with broken bones and teeth, Smith has a penchant for sticking around.
Add in an opportunistic submission arsenal that lines up with multiple avenues of past Spann defeats, and I find myself being drawn to the "Smith by submission" line (which you can currently find in the neighborhood of 4-1 odds).
I find it odd that it's listed higher than Smith's knockout props, but I'm guessing that everyone from the line setters to the betting public is looking at Smith's overall finishes by strikes – and not the actual styles match at hand.
Couple that with the fact that the previous winner of this fight and the more proven party can be found at 'dog odds, and it's hard not to pick a side and ride with Smith at plus money.
The Pick: Anthony Smith (+110 at Caesars) | Smith by submission (+460 at BetRivers)
