Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento odds at UFC St. Louis on Saturday, May 11 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
The UFC will return to the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri, this Saturday for the first time since 2018. The main event, a crucial clash in the heavyweight division, features No. 12-ranked contender Derrick Lewis – the record holder for the most knockout wins in UFC history – and No. 15 Rodrigo Nascimento.
Lewis is just 1-4 in his past five fights and appears on the downslope of his career at age 39 with 40 professional MMA bouts. Saturday will mark his 29th UFC octagon appearance and 12th main event or five-round fight.
Nascimento is 5-1-1 under the promotional banner and will compete in his first main event or five-round fight on Saturday. The Brazilian enters on a three-fight winning streak following a knockout loss to Chris Daukaus and an overturned win after he tested positive for Ritalin.
Will Lewis make Nascimento his 15th knockout victim, or can the Brazilian add the most significant name thus far to his resume and ascend toward title contention?
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC St. Louis main event and utilize those factors to bet on Nascimento vs. Lewis, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:25 p.m. ET (6:25 p.m. PT) on ESPN and ESPN+.
Tale of the Tape
| Lewis | Nascimento | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-12 | 11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:05 | 8:56 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 264 lbs. | 265 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/7/1985 | 11/26/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.43 | 4.31 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.48 | 4.76 |
| SS Defense | 40% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.53 | 1.20 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 33% |
| TD Def | 53% | 77% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Lewis is the slightly taller fighter while Nascimento has a slight reach advantage. Lewis is the bigger and stronger man, weighing in, on average, 20 pounds heavier than his opponent.
Nascimento will look to grapple in this fight – he has a significant advantage if the fight hits the mat. While Lewis is relatively easy to take down given his size (56% takedown defense), he's difficult to keep flat on the mat because he's so explosive.
His recent loss to Jailton Almeida (spent 21:10 in control positions) was an anomaly; against lesser jiu-jitsu practitioners, Lewis typically "just stands up" against his controlling opposition:
— MrTestoestrogen (@MrTestoestrogen) November 18, 2022
I noted Lewis's potential difficulty exploding to his feet against Almeida; I don't have those same reservations about Nascimento, who lacks the same levels of jiu-jitsu prowess, wrestling ability, natural strength or raw athleticism as Almeida.
Lewis also showed an incredible ability to stay safe in defensive mount in that performance, failing to get submitted despite spending nearly the entire fight in threatening positions.
Moreover, Nascimento's cardio – to pursue that style of gameplay for 25 minutes – is a relative mystery, though I think it unlikely that he could keep Lewis flat without tiring himself out.
Nascimento is the younger man and the better athlete. However, he's shown durability concerns in the past against lesser punchers, and Lewis should have opportunities to check his chin.
Nascimento leaves himself open defensively (43% striking defense), his reactions are a touch slow, and he's likely to get clipped – at some point – by one of the greatest power punchers in the sport's history.
Otherwise, Nascimento should win more minutes on the feet. Lewis is extremely hittable (40% striking defense) at this career stage and is particularly vulnerable to both the legs and body. I expect the American-Top-Team-trained athlete to come into this fight with a competent game plan.
Also, while I have questions about Nascimento's cardio, Lewis seems only to be able to fight by the 15-minute mark now (and has specifically asked the UFC to stop giving him five-round fights). And Nascimento has the grappling upside.
As a result, Nascimento has more ways to win. And Lewis is seemingly knockout or bust. What are the chances he closes the show?
Lewis vs. Nascimento Pick
I projected Derrick Lewis as a 61.1% favorite (-157 implied odds) in this fight, and I don't see value concerning either side of the moneyline.
Moreover, I expect this bout to end by finish about 89% of the time (-823 implied) and don't see value concerning the total.
However, based on the book, I project slight value on Nascimento by decision (projected +1184, listed +1400). Conversely, I set Lewis by KO/TKO at -122 (-135 listed).
I'd weigh most of Lewis's win condition to the early rounds. He has only one career finish in the fourth round or later (against Shamil Abdurakhimov in 2016) and had subsequently looked gassed by the end of Round 3 in all of his fights.
Lewis's opponents also tend to have a staring contest with him for five minutes before engaging.
As a result, I'd like to bet Lewis will win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1-2 (+125) or Rounds 2-3 (+320) in a structured wager, or bet his prop to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 (-105).
The Pick: Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 (-105 at FanDuel)
