Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev odds at UFC St. Louis on Saturday, May 11 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
The co-main event for Saturday's event, also dubbed UFC on ESPN 56, features a potential welterweight war between Joaquin Buckley and Nusulton Ruziboev.
Although this is a short-notice spot, Ruziboev jumped at the opportunity to test himself against ranked opposition – even if said shot came down a division.
Ruziboev has fought at 170 pounds before, but he primarily plies his trade at middleweight given his lengthy frame.
Buckley, who has also competed at 185 pounds, doesn't seem too picky when it comes to an opponent given that he'll get to perform in front of his hometown of St. Louis this weekend.
Tale of the Tape
| Buckley | Ruziboev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6 | 34-8-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:49 | 2:18 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/27/1994 | 11/19/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.06 | 3.93 |
| SS Accuracy | 34% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.26 | 0.87 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 80% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.40 | 3.27 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 100% |
| TD Def | 69% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Despite both parties being deceptively well-rounded, this matchup has all the makings for a strikers' delight.
Buckley, who fits the bill as an explosive southpaw slugger at first glance, has steadily been shoring up his striking technique as of late.
Despite still being prone to moving in straight lines with rote combinations, Buckley has done a lot better at moving laterally and getting off-line after his offensive blitzes.
Buckley has also added more kicks to his already dynamic offerings, but he isn't afraid to mix in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing.
I wouldn't put it past the American to shake things up with a takedown or two in this fight given both the length difference and Ruziboev's past follies in the grappling department. However, the native of Uzbekistan has recently shifted his training stateside to work with Marquez MMA in hopes of shoring up his ground game.
On the feet, Ruziboev appears to be a confident fighter who leans on his proprioception to find the perfect shot.
🧵#TheSouthpawReport for #UFCStLouis:
Nursulton Ruziboev, who faces Joaquin Buckley, is 0-0 against UFC-level southpaws.
Was only able to find 1 regional sample of him opposite a SP (circa 2017). Ruziboev showed classic lead-side pawing and power side dependency in open stance: pic.twitter.com/lmeITuXQ0Z
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 9, 2024
Whether Ruziboev is coming forward or working off the counter, the amateur Russian MMA champion has shown a predilection to set up power shots from the rear.
Both approaches have had success on Buckley, but Ruziboev will still need to respect the power that's coming back his way.
Buckley vs. Ruziboev Pick
The oddsmakers are slightly favoring the American, listing Buckley -129 and Ruziboev +104 as of this writing.
Although Buckley isn't typically a fighter on whom I feel comfortable laying the chalk, I can't say that I disagree with him being favored in this spot.
Not only does Buckley have more experience with impromptu matchups, but Ruziboev dropping back down to 170 pounds on short notice is a huge red flag due to both his massive frame and the fact that the Uzbek is no longer in his 20s (where fighters tend to recover better from drastic weight cuts).
Moreover, Ruziboev – who hasn't fought at this weight in class in more than three years – has sustained seven of his eight career losses at welterweight.
Ruziboev will be live when it comes to replicating Buckley's losses to Kevin Holland and Alessio Di Chirico, but I believe that his win conditions drop dramatically if this fight gets out of the first.
I don't think you can bank on a window for live betting in this fight, and you could even face a more inflated spread if Ruziboev looks bad on the scales come weigh-in day.
For that reason, I suggest taking Buckley's money line pre-flop if you like the American in this spot.
Not only are you getting a slight discount on the opener (on anything under -150), but it also covers Buckley dragging this fight out to a decision via closed-quarter combat.
I'd still be taking a stab at some Buckley late-round props for fun, but at prices like these, it's "pick a side and ride."
The Pick: Joaquin Buckley moneyline (-129 at BetRivers) | Bet to -145
