Check out our early UFC predictions for UFC St. Louis for this Saturday, May 11, with our Luck Ratings.
UFC St. Louis takes place at Enterprise Center in Missouri, and the event airs entirely on ESPN beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT). The full 13-fight event is also available on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
(UFC St. Louis odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC St. Louis with our DraftKings promo code.)
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or in which one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC St. Louis Predictions & Luck Ratings
Derrick Lewis (-148) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (+124)
Derrick Lewis is never a fighter who gives us much to work with from a luck standpoint. He's finished 14 of his 18 wins (all by knockout, a UFC record) and has been stopped in nine of 10 losses. That lone decision loss was in his last fight against Jailton Almeida and was as clear as it comes with Almeida winning all five rounds unanimously.
On the other side, Rodrigo Nasicmento gives us a bit more to work with. He's 4-1 in the UFC with a no-contest that originally was a knockout win for the Brazilian. It was overturned due to a failed drug test for Ritalin, so it goes down as a win in my book.
There are some concerning signs, though. Two of his last three wins were split decisions, and the third was a rather uninspiring decision over Don'Tale Mayes. His one UFC loss was a knockout by Chris Daukaus – whom Lewis put out in the first round.
My usual luck-based analysis points pretty heavily toward Lewis here. However, the 39-year-old has just one victory in his last five fights and often exhibits questionable motivation and preparation.
If I had to make a bet now, I'd make it on Nascimento as his moneyline seems to be shrinking. However, I prefer to wait until later in the week. Lewis' appearance on the scales and in interviews could provide some useful information here.
Verdict: Not Enough Information
Robelis Despaigne (-192) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+162)
I'm looking for an opportunity to fade Robelis Despaigne, who faces plenty of reasonable questions about his long-term UFC prospects. But this ain't it.
Despaigne is a former Olympic medalist in taekwondo, and he's knocked out his last four opponents in 37 seconds – combined. He's a freak athlete with record-setting reach and elite speed for the division.
He also might not have the slightest clue how to grapple – but we won't find that out this weekend.
Despaigne's been given a dream matchup with the "Salsa Boy" Waldo Cortes-Acosta. While taekwondo isn't historically an ideal base for MMA, neither is baseball. Crucially for this matchup, WCA has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, and he's largely gotten by on his superior athletic ability relative to the lower tier of the heavyweight division.
He won't be able to do that this time. Get your bet in on Despaigne ASAP; his line is dropping fast. The best currently available number is -180 on FanDuel, but I'd happily grab this one anywhere inside of -200 (while looking to add knockout or Round 1 props later in the week).
Verdict: Robelis Despaigne Undervalued
Tabatha Ricci (-155) vs. Tecia Pennington (+130)
As is often the case with lighter divisions and lighter women's divisions specifically, there are plenty of questionnable decisions to sift through on the records of both Tabatha Ricci and Tecia Pennington (née Torres).
Ricci is 3-1 in UFC decisions with her lone loss coming via split decision in her last fight at UFC 295 in November. Pennington is 7-6 in UFC decisions and is also coming off a split loss in her last fight.
However, that most recent fight for Torres was more than two years ago – in April 2022. Ring rust is always a factor with that long of a layoff, especially since she was out of action due to the pregnancy and birth of her daughter.
The stats on fighters returning from pregnancy are pretty poor, and Ricci is also more than five years younger. That's enough for me to get in early. The best line right now is -145 at Caesars but dropping fast.
Verdict: Tabatha Ricci Undervalued
JJ Aldrich (+114) vs. Veronica Hardy (-135)
Veronica Hardy is 2-0 in the UFC since coming off a two-year layoff of her own with decision victories over Julianna Miller and Jamie-Lynn Horth. The win over Horth was a split decision in which Hardy and Horth each landed exactly 43 significant strikes and a single takedown, so it easily could've gone either way.
JJ Aldrich is riding a two-fight winning streak of her own, but it includes a finish of Na Liang and a clear decision over Montana De La Rosa.
While neither woman built her streak off high-level opposition. At worst, they're roughly equal. Which means Aldrich's more impressive victories have to count for something.
On top of that, the Over 2.5 rounds prop is a whopping -475, so we're almost certain to need the judges here. That naturally pushes me toward the underdog, Aldrich, even if you don't put much stock in her more impressive wins.
I'd probably take either woman at plus-money in this matchup, but I don't expect it to last all week. Which means Aldrich, with her best odds of +120 at BetMGM and Caesars, is the early play. Look for arbitrage opportunities later in the week, though.
