The final UFC event of 2024 goes down this Saturday in Tampa, with welterweight contenders Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley meeting in the main event. It's a 13-fight card that starts at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. Mostly, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Tampa odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Tampa Predictions & Luck Ratings
Joaquin Buckley (-278) vs. Colby Covington (+225)
Buckley was originally supposed to face Ian Garry in the main event of this card. Garry got called up on short notice to the UFC 310 co-main event, with Covington stepping in to headline the card in his native Florida.
This could theoretically be a "title eliminator" or #1 contender matchup, for who gets the next crack at the welterweight belt following Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Belal Muhammad. Buckley has won five straight since dropping to 170 and looked great doing it.
It's harder to make a case for Covington, who's alternated wins and losses over his last five fights. Of course, those three losses have all been in title fights, as Covington somehow seems to find himself getting undeserved championship opportunities often.
Still, he's got an uphill climb against Buckley. In addition to the short notice nature of the pairing, Buckley is much bigger more athletic, and six years younger. There's a case that Buckley is undervalued even as a nearly three-to-one favorite here.
I'm not laying that myself, but he's somehow just -225 at BetWay. If you live in a state where they operate, I'd rush to make that bet.
Verdict: Joaquin Buckley Undervalued
Ramon Tavares (-125) vs. Davey Grant (+105)
This fight is the absolute ideal scenario for a Luck Ratings pick.
The favored Tavares is 1-0 in the UFC, but it was a split-decision win where 100% of media members who scored the fight saw it the other way.
Davey Grant lost his most recent fight to snap a two-fight winning streak — in a fight that 85% of media members who scored the fight saw the other way.
Had Grant won three in a row heading into this bout against an 0-1 UFC opponent, he'd surely be a favorite. That's not the case thanks to some bad judging, so let's take advantage of it and grab the plus-money line while it's still out there.
After opening at +120, Grant has moved to +105 or +110 almost everywhere — but is still +120 at BetRivers. I'd be fine with any of those lines, but obviously, take the best one available to you.
Verdict: Davey Grant Undervalued
Josefine Knutsson (-230) vs. Piera Rodriguez (+190)
Piera Rodriguez's last fight ended in a DQ loss after she was found to have intentionally headbutted her opponent multiple times despite the ref's warnings.
Thing is — she was clearly winning the fight up to that point. All three judges gave her the first round, and she had scored a knockdown in the second before the headbutts came into play.
Had she finished that fight legally, this line would be a lot closer — plus there's something to be said for betting on a fighter who's willing to cheat for your money.
She's a deserved underdog against Knutsson, who's 2-0 in the UFC against lower-level competition. The line should be closer though, so grab the +190 at DraftKings or FanDuel while you can.
Verdict: Piera Rodriguez Undervalued
