Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj Odds
| Turcios Odds | +280 |
| Sopaj Odds | -355 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-210 / +160) |
| Location | Apex Center, Las Vegas Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 100 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 100 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj odds for UFC Vegas 100 on Saturday, November 9, with my betting preview and breakdown.
With the originally scheduled main event for the historic UFC Vegas 100 card getting scrapped, a bout from elsewhere had to be elevated. This time around, it's the bantamweight tilt between Ricky Turcios and Bernardo Sopaj — who are a combined 2-3 in the Octagon.
While it's not the most hotly anticipated co-main we've had, it should still be a fun scrap. The combination of the matchup and the placement on the card is also a solid sign the UFC thinks it has something with Sopaj, who put on a Fight of the Night performance in his unsuccessful debut.
Let's see if we can find some fun angles to attack, despite the relatively lopsided opening line.
Here's my Turcios vs. Sopaj pick and prediction.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Turcios | Sopaj | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-6 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:28 | 14:41 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/05/1999 | 9/25/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.63 | 3.06 |
| SS Accuracy | 37% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.34 | 4.56 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.89 | 3.06 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 75% |
| TD Def | 45% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0 |
One of the reasons the UFC might be high on Sopaj is his debut. He stepped in on short notice to take on Vinicius Oliveira in March and won the first round before understandably slowing down later in the fight.
The Albanian born prospect trains in Sweden at All-Stars Training Center, the occasional home of Khamzat Chimaev, which hosts a handful of UFC fighters. Most of those fighters have a grappling base and that DNA is present in Sopaj, who landed three takedowns in his debut.
Still just 24, Sopaj has been a pro since the age of 15. With just two decision losses on his road to the Octagon, he displayed a solid mix of finishes on the regional scene, posting three submissions and seven knockouts.
In his debut, he showcased aggressive striking, but primarily issued just one or two shots at a time. However, I don't want to read too much into that as he was fighting a much taller and left-handed opponent.
Turcios presents an easier target to hit. Sopaj is still the shorter fighter, but the matching orthodox stances make things easier. Plus, cardio issues and Octagon jitters may have been a factor as Sopaj appeared pretty tense early in the fight.
The takedowns were the most impressive part of Sopaj's game. While he doesn't appear to have any extensive grappling credentials, he displayed excellent timing and transitions on his attempts. Both of his first round takedowns on Oliveira were perfectly timed under strikes from the approaching Oliveira. He also countered an attempted trip in the second round with one of his own.
That's one advantage to learning MMA as it's own sport rather than coming from a different art — it's much easier to transition between striking and grappling when you've always trained them together than it is when they've been treated as separate activities.
Houston's Ricky Turcios holds both a black belt in BJJ and various amateur Muay Thai titles. He showed the latter in his fight against Raul Rosas Jr., opening with hard head kicks from the opening bell. Unfortunately, the former skill didn't serve him well. Rosas was able to land four takedowns and over five minutes of control time in a round and a half before finishing Turcios with a submission.
Turcios has struggled with grapplers throughout his career, surrendering seven takedowns to Kevin Natividad and six to Brady Hiestand, despite winning split decisions in both fights.
His grappling is very jiu-jitsu based, looking for sweeps and submissions from his back rather than trying to wrestle up. That works against lower-level competition, but is much harder to pull off in the UFC.
Turcios should have the minutes-winning edge on the feet here though. He's fairly active on the feet with a high pace and plenty of combinations. That partially explains the split decision win as judges are often swayed by volume, even if the strikes aren't particularly accurate or damaging.
Turcios vs. Sopaj Pick
I was hoping we'd get a moneyline discount based on the debut loss for Sopaj, but unfortunately the market seems to be considering the context.
One of the reasons I didn't touch on this fight in my Luck Ratings was the fact that Turcios' style lends itself to winning close decisions. That's also the reason I'm not interested in Sopaj's -3.5 point spread bet on DraftKings — dissenting judges could flip the result enough to not clear the line.
Instead, I'm taking Sopaj to win inside the distance, with odds of +200 on both BetMGM and DraftKings. He has solid power on the feet, and his ground and pound matches up well with Turcios' willingness to fight from the bottom.
Billy's Picks: Bernardo Sopaj Inside the Distance +200 (DraftKings)
