Check out some early UFC Vegas 100 picks to see which fighters are over or undervalued heading into the Saturday, November 9 event.
UFC Vegas 100 takes place at the Apex Center in Las Vegas, and the entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: A market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 100 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 100 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Carlos Prates (-650) vs. Neil Magny (+470)
The historic 100th event at the UFC Apex Center gives us a headline between the veteran gatekeeper (in the best sense of the word) Neil Magny, and the "Fighting Nerds" upstart Carlos Prates.
Magny will move into a tie for sixth on the UFC's leaderboard for most career fights on Saturday as he makes his 34th walk to the Octagon. The vast majority of that time has been spent on the fringes of the official rankings, where he currently sits at No. 15.
This will be the fourth-straight fight against a much younger prospect for Magny, with losses to Ian Machado Garry and Michael Morales, plus a win over Mike Malott. He's been at least a +300 underdog in each of those bouts.
Prates is 3-0 in the UFC, with all three wins coming inside of two rounds and earning him a performance bonus. It's clear what the promotion is trying to do here.
With that said, Magny probably shouldn't be this heavy of an underdog to anyone in the UFC. The line seems to be creeping against him, but I'll take a sprinkle closer to fight time if it continues to swell.
Verdict: Neil Magny Undervalued
Nicolas Dalby (-115) vs. Elizeu Zaleski (-105)
Were it not for a controversial decision loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov, Nicolas Dalby would be riding a five-fight winning streak. Just a week shy of his 40th birthday come fight time, it's an impressive late-career resurgence for "Danish Dynamite," who's been an underdog in his past four fights.
He's a slight favorite against Elizeu Zaleski, who's past two fights include a unanimous decisions loss to Randy Brown, and a majority draw with Fakhretdinov — with a split decision win preceding that.
Early posting books opened with Dalby as an underdog, before quickly being forced to switch favorites due to the money coming in on Dalby. While their recent results are somewhat similar, Dalby has looked much better doing it and got less help from the judges along the way.
Grab Dalby now, with the best line (-111) at FanDuel, before it goes any further.
Verdict: Nicolas Dalby undervalued
Melissa Mullins (-238) vs. Klaudia Sygula (+195)
I don't know much about Klaudia Sygula, the rare UFC signee not from either the Contender Series or The Ultimate Fighter. She's a 6-1 pro out of Poland, who's only loss came in her pro debut.
What I do know is that Melissa Mullins shouldn't be a -200 favorite against anybody in the UFC. She's 1-1 in the promotion, but suffered a knockdown in the first round of her only win, and a knockout in her loss.
Sygula's past two wins have come via knockout, albeit against lesser competition. That's a decent sign against the questionable durability of Mullins. Sygula also opened north of +200 at some books, so the +195 might not last until fight day.
This is a half unit bet for me, as I'm interested in adding either her knockout prop or her +3.5 "point spread" prop later in the week, depending on the lines of either prop. Grab it at Caesars, the last book with a line north of +200.
Verdict: Klaudia Sygula Undervalued
Tresean Gore (-198) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+164)
It's been a weird UFC run for Antonio Trocoli. Originally signed as a late replacement in a light heavyweight bout in December of 2022, he finally made his UFC debut this summer at middleweight, getting reshuffled into a matchup against Shara "Bullet" Nurmagomedov.
Trocoli was knocked out by Nurmagomedov — who's now 4-0 in the UFC. Given the short notice nature of the fight and the quality of opposition, I'm willing to look past that.
Tresean Gore is 1-2 in the UFC and just 4-2 as a professional, advancing to the finale of The Ultimate Fighter Season 29 before losing to eventual winner Bryan Battle. He's also been out of action for more than two years, with separate injuries (wrist and shoulder) that both required surgery.
I'm always looking to fade fighters off injuries, and I'm always looking to grab off-market lines. Trocoli's +164 at DraftKings and +165 at Caesars are about 20 cents better than the rest of the market, so grab either one while they're available.
Verdict: Antonio Trocoli Undervalued
