Check out our UFC Vegas 100 predictions for the Saturday, November 9, event in Las Vegas, Nevada, which starts at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and have found plenty of value on the Apex fight card.
So, where should you look to place your UFC Vegas 100 bets? Our crew has pinpointed three picks on the Magny vs. Prates fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches, plus Sean Zerillo's projections, below.
All odds, unless stated otherwise, are from DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Billy Ward: Antonio Trocoli vs. Tresean Gore
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:45 p.m. ET
Tresean Gore is sending up a lot of fade signals prior to UFC Vegas 100.
Just 4-2 as a pro fighter, the TUF 29 finalist is 1-2 in the Octagon proper, with his lone win coming over Josh Fremd, who is 2-4 for the promotion. That was a fairly close fight in the first round, with Fremd outlanding Gore on the feet early before shooting for an ill-advised takedown and leaving his neck exposed.
That fight was more than two years ago, with Gore missing time due to multiple surgeries since. The combination of ring rust and missed time on the mats is a tough one to overcome, especially for a relatively raw and inexperienced fighter like Gore.
Antonio Trocoli made his UFC debut on short notice against Shara "Bullet" Magomedov, and struggled to get anything going against the dynamic striker. However, he's an experienced and well-rounded fighter, with a 12-4 overall record made up of three KOs and five submissions. He has the length (five-inch reach advantage) to pick Gore apart on the feet and a BJJ Brown Belt, which should be more than enough to best Gore on the ground.
Despite all of that, Mr. Mackenzie Dern is going off as a +152 underdog on FanDuel on Friday. It's not as good as the +165 odds I got in my Luck Ratings on Monday, but I'd still take it in a heartbeat.
The Pick: Antonio Trocoli +152 (FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Charles Radtke
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
In the Matthew Semelsberger (+142) vs. Charles Radtke (-170) prelim, I believe there's value on the underdog. Semelsberger is undervalued due to the fact that he has lost four of his past five bouts, including each of his past three.
However, this fight presents a solid bounce-back opportunity for the underdog, primarily due to how hard he hits. Semelsberger possesses one-touch power, with each of his past two knockout wins coming within the first 16 seconds of the fight.
Each of Radtke's past two losses have come by knockout, both by body shots. This is a targetable area, and he's coming off a devastating body shot TKO against Carlos Prates.
Semelsberger doesn't hit quite as hard as Prates, but he hits hard enough to where that is a replicable outcome, especially if that area has softened even further.
On the other hand, Radtke will likely shoot for takedowns and attempt to wrestle his way to a decision victory. This is also a very realistic outcome, but I don't project it to happen frequently enough to justify laying -170.
Radtke's only two wins in the UFC are against Blood Diamond, who went 0-3 in the UFC prior to getting cut, and Gilbert Urbina, who is 1-2. Radtke's hype was brought down following that KO/TKO loss to Prates, and Semelsberger hits hard enough to where I wouldn't be shocked if Radtke is turned away once again.
The Pick: Matthew Semelsberger (+142 at DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Gaston Bolanos vs. Cortavious Romius
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:30 p.m. ET
Gaston Bolanos comes from a striking background and has a combined 34-3 record in professional kickboxing and Muay Thai. Understandably, he's shown a grappling deficiency after transitioning to MMA, where he's 7-4 with a pair of submission losses.
Bolanos is the more technical striker and is also bigger (3" taller, 1" reach advantage) than Cortavious Romious, who earned his UFC contract with a contender series win in August as a substantial favorite (closed -480 at FanDuel).
That fight was Romious's second contender series appearance. He lost in 29 seconds (closed -240 at FanDuel) against Ramon Taveras (who subsequently stole a decision in his UFC debut) last October, the second first-minute finish loss of his career.
I don't trust either fighter's durability, but Bolanos is the more effective striker, and Romious needs to proactively grapple to justify his favoritism.
Romious was out-struck 28-26 at distance on 25 fewer attempts (82 vs. 57) in his win over Michael Imperato. Romious stuffed seven of eight takedown attempts and spent five minutes in control positions, but never initiated a takedown of his own.
In this matchup, I projected Bolanos as a +168 underdog and set his KO/TKO prop at +346. Bet his moneyline to +175, and sprinkle the knockout prop (or include it in a round-robin) to +350.
The Pick: Gaston Bolanos +185 (ESPNBet)
