Check out our UFC picks with our favorite long-shot UFC Vegas 100 props for Saturday, November 9.
UFC Vegas 100 takes place at the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The entire card streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET.
With 12 fights on the card, UFC Vegas 100 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found four picks they like for the 100th event at the Apex.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 100 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 100 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Vegas 100 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Tony Sartori: Cody Stamann vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:15 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a bantamweight bout between unranked contenders Cody Stamann (+210) and Da'Mon Blackshear (-265). The steam is slightly on Blackshear, who opened as a -260 favorite and has since been bet up to his current price.
I agree with the steam, but I don't agree with the 15.38% implied probability of his +550 odds to win by submission. If you don't want to lay -265 on Blackshear's moneyline, then we should look at betting favorite's various paths to victory.
The least likely outcome is for Blackshear to win by KO/TKO, which is priced as wide as +1200. This makes sense, considering that Stamann has never been knocked out across 29 professional bouts.
That leaves Blackshear's submission and decision props, which are priced at +550 and -120, respectively. To me, the value is clearly on the submission prop.
Blackshear is likely to stick to his usual game plan, which is to hunt for takedowns and look for submissions. He's a BJJ black belt and boasts nine submission wins through 22 professional fights.
Can this trend continue on Saturday, or at least possess more than a 15.38% chance of occurring? I believe so, considering that he possesses a mere 61% takedown defense rate over his past eight bouts.
Stamann is also submittable, given that he tapped against both Aljamain Sterling and Said Nurmagomedov. If you like the betting favorite, then, in my opinion, there is more value in his submission prop at +550 than his decision prop at -120.
Speaking of +550, that is a particularly good line that is available at FanDuel, a price that is 50-200 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear by Submission (+550 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Renier de Ridder vs. Gerald Meerschaert III
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
As a fan of grappling, I'm hoping the bout between GM3 and Renier de Ridder turns into a grappling match with gloves on. Meerschaert is third all-time for most UFC submissions, with 11 of his 12 Octagon victories coming via tapout.
"The Dutch Knight" is coming over from ONE FC, where he was a two-division champion, and is a Judo/BJJ double black belt with extensive wrestling experience as a youth. Like Meerschaert, more than 70% of his career wins have come via submission.
However, the path of least resistance for RDR is probably just punching Meerschaert in the face. The UFC vet has been knocked out in four of his nine UFC losses. He also holds the inglorious distinction of being the only man to suffer a knockdown from Andre Petroski in the fellow grapplers' nine-fight UFC run.
Plus, de Ridder could utilize his grappling to get to a dominant position and pick up a ground-and-pound finish. Meerschaert's BJJ experience probably precludes him from sticking out an arm or a neck when he starts taking damage, which increases the odds of a ground-and-pound loss if this one hits the mat.
de Ridder is a -210 favorite with +110 odds to win inside the distance, which makes the knockout line particularly interesting. I'd make it a much greater proportion of his win condition, making this a solid value.
The Pick: Renier de Ridder by KO/TKO/DQ +500 (DraftKings)
John LanFranca: Carlos Prates vs. Neil Magny
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
Carlos Prates has an immense amount of hype around him right now as he steps in as a massive favorite against UFC veteran Neil Magny.
The perception heading into this fight is that Prates will make quick and easy work of Magny, cutting through him early with precision to find the knockout. While this outcome clearly has merit, I am willing to make a play on Magny holding serve for ten minutes before his eventual demise.
In all of Prate's fights in the UFC, he tends to be more active in round two than he is in round one. In the only fight in which he found a finish in round one against Charles Radtke, he had landed just 15 significant strikes as the first frame neared its end. Even as recently as February of this year, Prates was out-landed by an inferior opponent in Trevin Giles in both rounds before Prates landed the strike-ending shot.
This is simply a long way of saying I like Magny’s chances of making it out of round one. Magny has no choice in this bout but to test the defensive grappling of Prates. Magny averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes and has been known to persistently push his opponent’s back against the cage, even if the takedown is not imminent.
This will, at minimum, take minutes off the clock until the kickboxing match resumes – it’s one that Magny has to fight behind his jab and do his best to stay out of danger by using his height and reach advantage over Prates.
Ultimately, the patient Prates is too precise and powerful for the 37-year-old Magny. Prates will find the KO/TKO eventually, but I am willing to wager Magny can draw this fight out and take a few minutes off the clock before the destruction occurs.
The Pick: Carlos Prates by KO/TKO in Rounds 3 or 4 +430 (Fanduel)
