The UFC is back from Christmas break, with a 14-fight card at the Apex to kick off 2025. Headlined by a rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas, the action starts at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. Mostly, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 101 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 101 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Amanda Ribas (-205) vs. Mackenzie Dern (+170)
Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas first met in Oct. 2019, with Ribas winning a fairly dominant unanimous decision victory in that bout.
Both Brazilian women have similar backgrounds, having started grappling at a very young age under the tutelage of their black belt fathers before transitioning into MMA.
What separated Ribas in the first pairing was her takedown ability. Ribas got her start in Judo — which heavily emphasizes takedowns — while Dern is one of the best women's jiu-jitsu players of all time but struggles to land takedowns.
Neither woman is an especially impressive striker, though both have shown improvements deeper into their MMA careers. I'd give Ribas the slight edge in a pure striking match, but wouldn't be surprised if Dern's reunion with coach Jason Perillo tips the scales in her favor.
Still, Ribas is the deserving favorite here. I'm not willing to lay more than two-to-one on her — but we might not have to. More than 60% of Tapology Predictions are on the popular Dern, so late money will likely follow.
If Ribas falls to around -180 or so, I'd bet her moneyline.
Verdict: Fairly Valued (But Watch the Line)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-118) vs. Carlston Harris (-102)
Given the plethora of prospects on the card, I'm slightly disappointed that the co-main event features welterweights in their late 30s, both of whom are coming off a slight loss.
With that said, both Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris typically put on exciting fights, so I understand the placement.
Ponzinibbio is 1-4 in his last five fights, but three of those losses came via split decision (and the other was to Kevin Holland). All three split decision losses had close to half of media members judging Ponzinibbio the rightful winner.
Harris was knocked out seven months ago in just 90 seconds. Prior to that, he was thoroughly dominated for two rounds by Jeremiah Wells before catching a late submission when Wells ran out of gas.
These fighters could easily have inverse records over their last few fights if not for some strange breaks, and Ponzinibbio has fought much tougher competition. He should be a heavier favorite.
The line has moved his way after he opened as a slight underdog, with the best current mark -111 at FanDuel.
Verdict: Santiago Ponzinibbio Undervalued
Thiago Moisés (-192) vs. Trey Ogden (+160)
I was a little surprised to see the line movement in this matchup, which has moved Trey Ogden from about +140 at open to around +160 over the last couple of days.
Ogden is 3-1-1 in his last five fights, with the no contest coming in a fight he clearly deserved to win against Nikolas Motta. Ogden was winning, caught Motta in a submission, but the ref incorrectly waved the fight off without a tap of loss of consciousness from Motta. That made the fight a no contest, even though Motta was mere seconds away from being submitted otherwise.
His opponent, Thiago Moisés, is 1-3 in his last three, and has consistently lost against tougher competition throughout his UFC career.
If these fighters were the same age (Ogden is six years older at 35), I'd say Ogden deserves to be favored. As it stands, I'd make it close to a pick 'em.
That makes the +162 line at FanDuel a solid value. I'm betting half of a unit now, in case it continues to move later in the week.
Verdict: Trey Ogden Undervalued
Ernesta Kareckaite (-298) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+240)
I can't believe this is the line we're getting on this fight.
Kareckaite is 0-1 in the UFC, with her last three wins all coming via split decision. That includes her fight on the Contender Series in Sept. 2023. The former boxer and kickboxer has never beat anyone with a professional win to their name by anything other than split decision.
Caliari is also primarily a striker, but she holds a BJJ purple belt and submitted a black belt on the Contender Series. She has five knockouts on the regional scene and finished two solid opponents prior to her call to D.C..
I have no idea why Caliari is such a heavy underdog here, especially considering we typically want to bet underdogs in lighter weight class women's fights anyway. The best line is +240 at DraftKings and BetMGM.
Verdict: Nicolle Caliari Undervalued
