Check out our UFC picks and our favorite long-shot UFC Vegas 101 props for Saturday, January 11.
The UFC kicks off 2025 with a card at the Apex headlined by Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas. The entire card stream on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET
With 14 fights on the card, UFC Tampa prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found four picks.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Vegas 101 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 101 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC Vegas 101 Prop Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Tony Sartori: Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC featured prelim is a flyweight bout between unranked contenders Jose Johnson (-200) and Felipe Bunes (+150). The steam is on Bunes, who opened as a +163 underdog and has since been bet up to his current price.
I agree with the steam, but I think there is even more value in his decision prop at 4/1.
There is media attention on Johnson following Friday's weight miss. Johnson came in 2.5 pounds over the flyweight limit, but the fight will proceed as scheduled (with the favorite losing 20% of his purse).
Typically, a weight miss is an advantage for the fighter who did so. However, a poor weight cut from Johnson could work in favor of Bunes, who is a grappler that will bring this fight to the mat.
Johnson will be bigger and carry more power, but will that come at the cost of his energy expenditure? It is certainly possible, which would bode very poorly for him if Bunes can get this fight to the mat.
Even if Johnson wins the first round, coming in heavy could affect his performance in the following two rounds, especially if Bunes brings him to the mat. Especially given Johnson's historically poor takedown defense.
Johnson lost his first DWCS fight to Ronnie Lawrence (now no longer in the UFC) by unanimous decision. Lawrence landed an impressive 12 takedowns on 17 attempts.
Johnson's next two losses have come against Da'Mon Blackshear and Asu Almabayev. Together, those two fighters secured eight takedowns on 15 attempts in their wins over Johnson.
Across his three losses, Johnson has a takedown defense rate of just 38%, which should provide an obvious game plan for Bunes. It remains to be seen whether Bunes will succeed once on the mat, but at 4/1, I think it is worth taking a chance on him outgrappling a fatigued Johnson to secure a decision victory.
The Pick: Felipe Bunes by Decision (+400 at BetWay)
Billy Ward: Austin Bashi vs. Christian Rodriguez
Staff Writer at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Bashi is one of the best grappling prospects to enter the UFC in a long time. The 23-year-old was a two-time all-state wrestler in high school, while simultaneously winning an IBJFF world title at Brown Belt before being promoted to black belt.
For his UFC debut, he draws an opponent in Christian Rodriguez with a massive grappling hole in his game.
"C Rod" was taken down three times by Raul Rosas and seven times before Isaac Dulgarian, before both fighters eventually ran out of gas and dropped decisions to Rodriguez. I'm not as concerned about the cardio angle for Bashi. Between his wrestling pedigree and the fact that he's a former 135 lbs fighter who's now cutting less weight, he shouldn't have too many problems.
Plus, following the wins against Rosas and Dulgarian, Rodriguez stuck his neck into a guillotine from Julian Erosa. Erosa is nowhere near the level of grappler that Bashi is.
All of which sets up perfectly for the prospect to add a sixth submission win to his record — though I'll be hedging slightly with a bet on Bashi to win inside the distance at +270 as well.
The Picks: Austin Bashi by Submission (+500 BetWay)
John Lanfranca: Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Roman Kopylov against Chris Curtis just feels like a matchup destined for a highly competitive tilt that sees the scorecards. Oddsmakers have set an implied over/under of 2.5 rounds to see the over at a 68% rate in this bout, and it’s hard to think that number is high enough considering these fighters’ history.
It is difficult to envision this fight not entirely playing out on the feet. Kopylov has leaned into his wrestling more as his career has progressed, but it’s unlikely he will crack the 82% takedown defense of Chris Curtis. Even if Kopylov was to get the fight to the mat, just last year we witnessed Curtis drag a fight to a split decision with a much better grappler, Brendan Allen, despite being taken down on six occasions. As for Curtis’ offensive prowess, he has never landed a takedown in his UFC career.
Kopylov is being given the edge in the striking, that is what makes him the favorite, but his edge may not be enough to sway the judges convincingly. While Kopylov has been credited with 54% striking accuracy to Curtis’ 51%, it’s worth noting Curtis has the advantage in activity. Curtis lands 5.7 significant strikes per minute, while Kopylov lands 4.3 significant strikes per minute.
Chris Curtis is an effective counter-striker and while he will undoubtedly have to fend off several body kicks from Kopylov, if he can get his timing down early, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him lead the dance in output starting at an earlier point in the fight than usual.
Curtis has also faced many of the top middleweights the sport has to offer. Given that he has faced a higher level of competition, I believe there is value in Curtis potentially stealing a decision victory on Saturday night.
The Pick: Chris Curtis by Decision/Technical Decision +450 (BetMGM)
Bryan Fonseca: Amanda Ribas vs. Mackenzie Dern
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
I kinda think Mackenzie Dern needs to take this to the ground to win. Maybe I'm off, and that'll definitely be easier said than done, but I consider her a live dog so long as she doesn't get lulled into trading strikes, which tends to happen in her losses.
Ribas can win this in a variety of ways and is explosive enough to end this early — she has four wins by knockout and four by submission — while Dern doesn't have a KO on her resume.
Ultimately, I think Dern by submission is worth a look at +500 at Bet 365. She hasn't gotten one since April of 2021 and Ribas has never tapped, so I wish this were even better than +500 odds, but I think her route to winning — and avenging her 2019 loss to Ribas, has to be a grounded one.
Ribas by decision will be the popular play, and likely the accurate one, but Dern submission is the longshot I like here most.
The Picks: Mackenzie Dern by Submission (+500 Bet365)
