Check out our UFC Vegas 102 predictions for the Saturday, February 15, event live from the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 102 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 102 Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 102 Best Bets
John Lanfranca: Don'Tale Mayes vs. Valter Walker
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:45 p.m. ET
Don’tale Mayes may be the lowest level fighter in the entire UFC with a ranking next to his name, but he absolutely should not be anywhere near +200 against an athlete of Valter Walker’s caliber. Bettors’ frustration with Mayes is undoubtedly baked into this line, as many that have backed him believe they have good reason to avoid taking his side once more.
Make no mistake, this is a fade of Valter Walker. Walker’s striking is below subpar, even for the heavyweight division. While he is considered to have a grappling edge in this bout, he has just two submission victories in his career. His first submission win came against a 0-0 fighter on the regional scene, and the second came against a current UFC heavyweight without any semblance of grappling skills.
Thus, Walker’s path to victory will be to repeatedly take down Mayes and control him, right? Well, Walker’s UFC main roster debut was a fight against Lukasz Brzeski, a low-level heavyweight in his own right; in that fight Walker landed four takedowns and banked over 7 minutes of control time. Despite seemingly controlling his opponent, Walker landed a grand total of 8 ground strikes over those 7 minutes. In round 3, Walker had very little gas left in the tank, attempting just 14 significant strikes the entire round en route to a unanimous decision loss.
For context, Brzeski has six UFC bouts under his belt, with his only win coming against Walker. This alone should give you pause if you are considering laying the juice with Walker, who has already burned bettors who backed him as a -260 favorite.
Don’tale Mayes has four wins in the UFC organization and officially weighed in 21 pounds heavier than Walker. Mayes being taken down and controlled by Shamil Gaziev for the majority of his most recent loss is fresh in the minds of bettors, with many expecting a similar result on Saturday. I can assure you Gaziev is a much better grappler, and fighter, than Walker.
When this fight is in striking range Mayes will be the more active fighter, landing the cleaner shots, while carrying the superior power of the two men. Even if Walker is able to land takedowns, we have already seen the lack of activity that comes with his control. Just about any heavyweight on the roster getting +200 against Walker would pique my interest as a potential bet, so I am more than happy taking the much maligned Mayes on Saturday night at his current price.
The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes +240 (DraftKings)
Bryan Fonseca: Rafael Estevam vs. Jesus Aguilar
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:15 p.m. ET
Rafael Estevam has three wins by submission in his career. This weekend he gets an opponent in Jesus Aguilar who has tapped twice, including to an armbar two years ago.
Estevam's versatility is why he should win this, but his ground game is why he could dominate. He'll look to smother Aguilar, using a distinct height and reach advantage to do so. Estevam is four inches taller with a near seven inch reach advantage.
It's more likely that he gets this done on points, perhaps, but +240 is too tempting to pass up. There's a realistic scenario where Estevam controls things on the ground with multiple submission attempts.
The best line is +240 at BetRivers, but I'd bet this down to the +175 at DraftKings.
The Pick: Rafael Estevam by Submission +240 (BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
At some point, the bottom has to fall out for 40 year old Angela Hill.
At least, that's what I've been telling myself for her past few fights, as she continues to hold steady if not improve after more than a decade in the UFC. There's nothing magical about turning 40 of course, but the odds of a steep decline certainly get higher with each passing day.
Fortunately, that's not really what my pick on Ketlen Souza is about. Souza is 2-0 since dropping down to strawweight in the UFC, recently pulling off an impressive first round submission over Yazmin Jauregui after dropping her early in the fight.
Hill is coming off a competitive loss to Tabatha Ricci, in which Ricci landed three takedowns to sway the judges over the volume punching from Hill. While Souza probably doesn't go the grappling route like Ricci, her significant power edge will likely swing some judges to her side despite Hill's activity levels. Souza has scored as many knockdowns in her three UFC fights as Hill has in her last 21 fights.
That makes this a relatively fair line — if both women are who we expect them to be based on their last fight. It's volume vs. power, technique against damage.
On the other hand, if Hill has slowed down a step, or the 29 year-old Souza has continued to improve at the rate we've seen since her debut, then the line should be heavily skewed towards the younger Brazilian. Whatever odds you assign to either of those possibilities is roughly your edge here, but I'd bet Souza down to -125.
The Pick: Ketlen Souza -110 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Saturday's main card bout between Brazilian Ismael Bonfim – whose brother Gabriel will appear on the prelims – and Longo MMA's Nazim Sadykhov has drawn plenty of moneyline betting; I prefer the total, or the goes to decision prop in what should be a close and competitive fight.
I projected this Bantamweight scrap to reach a decision 65% of the time (-186 implied odds) compared to a divisional baseline of 58% (-138 implied odds) since 2022 and listed odds as low as -130 (56.5% implied) in the betting market.
Bonfim is the more technical striker and the superior grappler, but Sadykhov is the more durable athlete with better cardio.
Moreover, Sadykhov doesn't always follow an optimal game plan, and he tends to give away minutes with poor Fight IQ.
As a result, I expect Bonfim to take the lead when both men are fresh but Sadkhov to work his way back into the fight the longer it goes on.
Bet the distance prop to -150, consider sprinkling Sadykhov by decision at +500 (projected +437), and fire on the underdog at a better number live after round 1.
The Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (-130 at BallyBet)
