We're back at the Apex for UFC Vegas 103, with a flyweight main event featuring Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. The 12-fight card goes down at 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ streaming.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 103 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 103 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Manel Kape (-245) vs. Asu Almabayev (+200)
For the second time in three fights, Manel Kape is being asked to take on a fast-rising UFC prospect.
That was a position once held by Kape, who entered the promotion as the reigning Rizin champ but has struggled with inconsistency throughout his career. He has a four fight winning streak snapped by Muhammad Mokaev last summer, but rebounded with a third round knockout of Bruno Silva.
Almabayev shares some stylistic similarities with Mokaev in that they're both relentless grapplers, with Almabayev averaging more than five takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. That's historically been the weak point for Kape, who has dropped decisions to grappling heavy fighters Mokaev, Matheus Nicolau and Alexandre Pantoja.
This being a five round fight makes it tough for a takedown and control gameplan though, with Kape certainly the more dangerous striker. As such, I'd consider this fairly valued at the time being, though if the line on Almabayev climbs any higher I'd jump in. My price target is +215.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
William Gomis (-225) vs. Hyder Amil (+185)
William Gomis is as close to a perfect "luck fade" candidate as I can remember.
The Frenchman is 4-0 in the UFC — with two splits and a majority decision among those four wins. One of those (a split against Joanderson Brito) saw about 75% of media members score the fight against Gomis, while the other two were probably correctly judged but still fairly close.
Hyder Amil is undefeated at 10-0, with two knockouts in the UFC and a unanimous decision win on the Contender Series. He's also probably be favored if even one of Gomis' close decisions had gone the other way.
For that reason, I'm jumping on the +185 lines available at both DraftKings and ESPNBet while they're available.
Verdict: Hyder Amil Undervalued
JJ Aldrich (-198) vs. Andrea Lee (+164)
We have the opposite situation with Andrea Lee's split decision luck, and it's impacting two fights on the card.
Lee has lost five straight fights, but two of those were split decisions. One of those came against top flyweight Maycee Barber in a fight most outlets scored for Lee, while the other came against fellow UFC Vegas 103 fighter Montana De La Rosa.
Statistically, Lee has better numbers than JJ Aldrich despite fighting a similar (if not higher) level of competition, but her poor results with the judges is skewing the market.
The line seems to be going against Lee so this one is no hurry, but I'll be looking to take the underdog at some point this week.
Verdict: Andrea Lee Undervalued
Luana Carolina (-130) vs. Montana De La Rosa (+110)
The aforementioned De LA Rosa is a slight underdog on this card following her split decision win over Lee, but I think the line should be longer.
That was De La Rosa's first win since 2021, with two stoppage losses and a unanimous decision loss in the interim. Her opponent Luana Carolina has won three in a row, and her last loss was via split decision.
I expect this line to widen based on the public interest in MDR, who more than 80% of Tapology predictions expect to win. For that reason, jump on Carolina now before the line gets any wider.
The best line is the -130 at DraftKings.
Verdict: Luana Carolina Undervalued
