Check out our UFC Vegas 103 predictions for the Saturday, March 1, event live from the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 10-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 103 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 103 Prop Projections
UFC Vegas 103 Best Bets
Sean Zerillo: Charles Johnson vs. Ramazan Temirov
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:45 p.m. ET
Ramazan Temirov has an aggressively fun fighting style – winging hooks and overhands from his 5'3" frame despite a 63" reach – making him the shortest man with the second shortest reach in the men's divisions ( Jesus Aguilar is 5'4" with a 62.5" reach).
Temirov is explosive—and likely to take the lead and have an opportunity to finish any opponent early. Still, he has five consecutive first-round finishes at Flyweight (10 career), a division with the lowest finish rate in the sport (42% in 2024).
While the quick knockouts are impressive, Charles Johnson is highly durable, and Temirov likely doesn't have the cardio or durability to sustain his reckless style for three rounds.
Johnson is the much bigger man (5" taller, 7" reach advantage) with excellent range finders – including a strong jab and teep kicks to keep Temirov at range. Johnson has shown excellent recoverability throughout his career (0 finish losses) despite getting hurt in some of the fights (one knockdown by Azat Maksum, wobbled by others), and he offers elite cardio – increasing his pace in each round.
While Temirov should land the more damaging punches in round 1, Johnson has the grappling advantage and could look to neutralize his more powerful opponent and drag him to deeper waters.
Either way, I like Johnson live after Round 1; once Temirov has passed his initial burst of finishing potential. I would take plus money if Johnson loses the round, but I would still lay up to -250 if he's winning.
I also like Johnson as a pre-fight bet (projected -144; bet to -135) in case he pursues his grappling advantage from the outset. Additionally, I show value on Johnson to win by decision (projected +126, listed +190) – which I'll use on a round-robin ticket – but I wouldn't rule out his Round 3 prop (+1600) given the potential cardio discrepancy.
The Pick: Charles Johnson (-130 at DraftKings) | Johnson Live after Round 1
Bryan Fonseca: Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:15 p.m. ET
Andrea Lee, to me, has a better probability of winning this fight than Vegas would imply.And if she does win, it's likely by decision, so why not call my shot?
Lee has five straight losses, all by decision. Two of the five were split decisions that she probably should've won, especially the Maycee Barber bout two years ago. Lee is being matched-up with JJ Aldrich here, who has won two of three but dropped a unanimous decision against Veronica Hardy in May.
Lee has a five-inch reach advantage and offers more versatility with three knockouts and five submissions on her professional record. She has a background in Kyokushin Karate, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Judo and Muay Thai.
Neither Lee or Aldrich have impressive wins leading up to this, and for me, I just don't think Aldrich should be getting favored by essentially 2-to-1 odds.
Lee has fought to 11 decisions in 13 fights, and Aldrich to 13 in 16 fights. It feels like, regardless of who wins, this fight likely goes a full three rounds. Given that, Lee offers more value in a fight that projects to be closer than the moneyline would indicate.
The Pick: Andrea Lee by Decision +250 (DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
I've been on Hyder Amil all week, and it looked initially like I would be getting some CLV (closing line value) on the Amil side of the bet, with the line shifting his way early in the week. Late action has moved the line back essentially to where it started, though, so this is still one of my favorite bets on the card.
"Hurricane" Hyder Amil is a hyper-aggressive undefeated fighter, with knockout victories in his first two UFC appearances. He's facing William Gomis, who has a stronger 4-0 record in the UFC.
That explains why Amil is the underdog — until you dig a bit deeper. Three of Gomis' four wins were contested decisions, with two splits and a majority decision. He's the better technical striker in this (and most) matchups, but throws with much less volume and power than Amil.
Amil averages 6.31 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, while Gomis is at just 2.69. Additionally, Gomis is yet to land a knockdown in the UFC, though he does have a TKO via body kick as one of his four wins.
Still, rhat can be enough to sway judges to the more aggressive fighter, even if they aren't as precise with their strikes. Especially considering judges typically don't reward body and leg strikes to the extent they do shots to the head. With Amil also having nearly all of the finishing upside here, he has more "outs" despite being a +185 underdog.
I was glad to hear Sean Zerillo was also on Amil, as we discussed in our latest UFC Betting Podcast:
The Pick:
