After last week's PPV event, the UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 104. Headlined by the rematch between ranked middleweights Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze, the entire event streams on ESPN+ starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 104 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 104 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Marvin Vettori (-148) vs. Roman Dolidze (+124)
The main event of UFC Vegas 104 might be the least necessary rematch in UFC history, as Marvin Vettori meets Roman Dolidze just one fight removed from his previous win over Dolidze.
The case for the rematch is that a small majority of fans and media scored the initial meeting for Dolidze despite all three judges disagreeing, but both men are similarly ranked as they were for the previous matchup, which also wasn't especially memorable.
The rematch trends all point to Vettori here, as not only did he win the original meeting but he's five years younger than Dolidze. Additionally, this bout being moved to five rounds probably favors Vettori. He has way more experience in five round fights, and Dolidze lost the fourth and fifth rounds in his only previous main event (save for a point deduction).
I see no reason to expect a different outcome here, and the market has already started to move towards the Italian. Caesars and FanDuel both opened around -130 on Vettori, before moving to -140 on Monday morning. They currently share the best available odds, but don't wait too long.
Verdict: Marvin Vettori Undervalued
Carli Judice (-380) vs. Yuniesy Duben (+300)
There's plenty of heavy favorites on the card, and odds are at least one of them is going to fail to live up to their odds.
Probably my favorite among those is Carli Judice, who is 3-2 as a pro fighter, with those two losses coming on the Contender Series and in the UFC proper. Sure, they were both split decisions, but at best she fought close fights against lower-level competition. She's also never beaten an opponent with a winning record.
On the other hand, Yuneisy Duben was my biggest hit on last year's Contender Series, cashing as a +575 underdog with a first round knockout of her previously unbeaten opponent. That was the first win against an opponent with a winning record for Duben — but that's one more than Judice has.
While it's entirely possible Duben just landed a lucky punch, it's very hard to argue she should be this heavy of an underdog.
Act fast, because the line has already moved considerably from the +400 I got Sunday night. I'd take her moneyline down to +250, and the best currently available odds are +320 at FanDuel.
Verdict: Yuneisy Duben Undervalued
Josias Musasa (-700) vs. Carlos Vera (+500)
Another huge underdog I'm targeting here is TUF 31 veteran Carlos Vera.
In his UFC debut proper, Vera was controlled on the ground for more than 13 minutes of a 15 minute fight by Rinya Namakmura, a former world champion freestyle wrestler. Now, he gets an entirely different style of matchup against the brawling Josias Musasa.
Musasa is coming off the Contender Series, where he "earned" a split decision win despite being out struck and taken down four times. That was the only win by something other than knockout in his young career.
He has a massive athleticism edge over Vera, but is relatively raw from a skills standpoint, which could leave some openings for the more technical and experienced Vera to exploit. I don't necessarily expect Vera to be able to survive the early storm, but his odds of doing so are a lot better than five to one.
Plus, the +500 odds at DraftKings are a bit of an outlier, with other books ranging from +350 to +450 at the time of writing. That's worth a quarter unit sprinkle.
Verdict: Carlos Vera Undervalued
