We head back to the Apex for UFC Vegas 105, a 13-fight card headlined by undefeated featherweight contender Lerone Murphy taking on former interim title challenger Josh Emmett in the main event.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.M
UFC Vegas 105 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 105 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Lerone Murphy (-325) vs. Josh Emmett (+260)
It's pretty clear what outcome would be best for the UFC in this main event.
Lerone Murphy is an undefeated 33 year old from England, who would cover a lot of ground from a promotional standpoint for the promotion. Emmett is 40, already lost in an interim title fight and to former champion Ilia Topuria, and probably only has a fight or two left in him depending on how this one goes.
Emmett still has big power, as he showed in his knockout of Bryce Mitchell last year.
Murphy has been rocked on a couple of occasions inside the UFC. Outside of the proverbial puncher's chance, it's hard to see any other clear path for an Emmett victory here, though.
That power probably justifies this line not being even wider, but isn't enough for me to jump in on Emmett. As such, the line line is about right, though I expect it to shift a bit more to Murphy throughout the week.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Joanderson Brito (-200) vs. Pat Sabatini (+170)
After getting finished in the first round by future title challenger Diego Lopes, Pat Sabatini rebounded with a first round win of his own over Jonathan Pearce in his last fight.
Now he gets Joanderson Brito, who had his five-fight winning streak snapped via split decision against William Gomis.
This is a tricky one for the luck column, because most media and fan scorecards had Brito winning that fight. On the flip side, the line has shifted noticeably towards Sabatini already, after opening with the underdog lined around +200.
With some books still hanging +180 on the Philly product, it's likely that we'll be able to catch some closing line value on the underdog. I'm listing him as undervalued here for that reason, but I'll have a full preview of this fight later in the week where I figure out exactly how I want to bet it.
Verdict: Pat Sabatini Undervalued
Chan Ho Lee (-155) vs. Cortavious Romius (+130)
Chan Ho Lee is the latest Road to the UFC winner to make their actual UFC debut, though he's officially 1-0 in the promotion since the tournament championship was on a UFC card.
We've seen RUFC veterans have a very tough go of it recently, suggesting that the level of competition there is a bit lower than something like the Contender Series — which invites prospects from all over the world rather than just one specific region.
Plus, Lee's championship win came via split decision, so he wasn't even clearly the best fighter from that season.
Romius is a Contender Series vet who dropped his UFC debut, but was reasonably competitive with four takedowns in the bout. He also opened a bit higher at some books (FanDuel and Caesars had him as high as +145), so the market is viewing him as an upside underdog here.
Grab the +135 at BetRivers or +132 at FanDuel while you still can.
Verdict: Cortavious Romius Undervalued
Talita Alencar (-112) vs. Vanessa Demopolous (-108)
Officially, Vanessa Demopolous is 2-2 across her last four fights. However, she should probably be 0-4.
The more recent of those wins was a split decision over Emily Ducote, that 13 of 15 media members scored for Ducote. Before that, she was somehow given a unanimous decision victory over Kanako Murata, despite 13 of 14 media judges scoring the bout the other way.
Talita Alencar is 1-1 in the promotion with her win coming via split decision, and she also probably didn't deserve it. However, she also matches up extremely well with Demopolous.
Both women rely on their BJJ and little else, but Alencar is a three time no-gi champion at black belt with the first coming in 2016. Demopolous received her black belt in 2022, and was submitted in her last fight.
That's enough for me to lay the slight juice on Alencar, with the -112 line widely available on Monday.
Verdict: Talita Alencar Undervalued
