Check out our UFC Vegas 105 predictions for the Saturday, April 5, event at the world famous UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The entire card airs on ESPN+ streaming starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 105 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 105 Prop Projections
Billy Ward: Talita Alencar vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:00 p.m. ET
There are not a lot of women on the UFC roster against whom I'd bet Talita Alencar without getting plus money. In fact, there might only be one — Vanessa Demopoulos.
Which makes it fortuitous that Alencar faces Demopoulos in the opening bout this weekend. Both women are jiu-jitsu/submission specialists with fairly limited skills in other aspects of fighting, but Alencar is clearly at a different level of submission grappler.
She's a three-time no-gi world champion as a black belt, with her first title coming in 2016. Demopoulos got her BJJ black belt last year and started training as an adult. It would be one thing if Alencar was much older and thus on the decline, but she's actually two years younger in this matchup.
To be fair to Demopoulos, her relative weakness (striking) isn't nearly as lacking as Alencar's, but I expect this fight to get to the mat at some point. Demopoulos has attempted takedowns in all but one of her UFC fights, with the only outlier being her last fight, where she was taken down and submitted in Round 1.
Alencar isn't a great wrestler, but she should be more than capable of overcoming Demopoulos' 27% takedown defense, particularly in the smaller Apex cage, where there's less room to keep the fight at distance.
Additionally, about 80% of public predictions have been on Demopoulos but the line has remained steady, which suggests bigger/sharper bets are coming in on Alencar to balance the scales, as Zerillo pointed out when we discussed this fight on our latest UFC Betting Preview:
The Pick: Talita Alencar -112 (DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:50 p.m. ET
Brad Tavares seemingly has the skillset to neutralize Gerald Meerschaert's offense; Tavares has shown excellent takedown defense (81%; denied 100 of 124 career attempts) across 25 UFC bouts, and Meerschaert – or GM3 – has finished 11 of his 12 UFC wins by submission; a middleweight record (and tied with Demian Maia for third-most in promotional history).
Still, Meerschaert offers underrated distance striking, fighting behind a powerful left-body kick from his southpaw stance. By the numbers, he has been nearly as efficient as Tavares from distance (+0.4 to +0.3 striking differential) – while maintaining a similar pace (4.4 and 4.5 landed per minute, respectively) in his 22 UFC bouts.
Meerschaert has a three-inch reach advantage, but Tavares should have quicker and cleaner hands in the boxing exchanges.
Still, I prefer Meerschaert's recent form in a battle of 37-year-old fighters—competitive in fights against younger, physical opponents like Reiner de Ridder, Andre Petroski, and Edmen Shahbazyan. In contrast, Tavares has shown decreased speed, lesser takedown defense (permitting four of 12 attempts), and durability in a knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues and a subsequent decision loss against Jun-Yong Park.
Moreover, while GM3 can struggle with durability against power punchers, Tavares is a point fighter who doesn't carry much power in his hands (13 of 15 UFC wins by decision). Still, he has shown good submission defense, and I project a fight between these two aging middleweights to reach the scorecards more often than the odds suggest.
I projected Meerschaert as a +136 underdog and would bet his moneyline to +150. Still, I prefer the goes-to decision prop (projected -158, listed -135) up to -145. I would place both bets, looking to turn a very slight profit if Meerschaert wins by finish, a more significant profit if he wins by decision, or push the fight if Tavares wins by decision.
The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert (+155 at BetRivers) | Fight Goes to Decision (-136 at BetRivers)
