The UFC is back after a week off, with UFC Vegas 62 serving as a bit of an appetizer for next week's stacked UFC 280. There's still money to be won, though, even if you just want to bet on players' prop-style performances.
PrizePicks lets you do just that, unlike most sports betting operators. Below is my favorite parlay from the 12-fight card, and some extra options for those wanting to take a bigger swing.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Vegas 62 PrizePicks Parlay
Dusko Todorovic Over 25.5 Significant Strikes
This is a bit of an interesting play for me. I'm lower than the market on Dusko Todorovic generally, but that's precisely why I'm taking the over on his strikes prop.
The 25.5 line is pretty clearly predicated on this being a quick win for "Thunder." He's +110 to pick up a first-round stoppage, for example. But Todorovic is just 2-3 in the UFC, and both of his victories came via ground and pound against since-cut fighters who had severe deficits in the grappling department.
He's fighting Jordan Wright on Saturday. Wright is no grappling ace, but he has a perfect 100% takedown defense rate in five UFC fights. Because of that, I'm anticipating a fairly close standup fight between two lower-level UFC middleweights.
With a strikes prop this low, it would be hard for Todorovic to fall below the line without a quick finish. He's landed more than five significant strikes per minute, with Wright absorbing more than seven per minute.
This one feels extremely safe as long as it makes it out of the first round.
Pete Rodriguez Over 25.5 Significant Strikes
Keeping with the theme of low totals on fights expected to be a walk-through, we have Pete Rodriguez. Rodriguez is fighting my good friend Mike Jackson on Saturday:
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣@Psychoward586, you've completely lost your fucking mind. There's no way you're that delusional. Lol! https://t.co/PGTCm13SPE
— Mike Jackson, Esq. (@TheTruthJackson) September 2, 2022
Jackson is a photographer who was brought into the UFC to lose to Mickey Gall (and then fight pro wrestler Phil "CM Punk" Brooks) back in 2016, and who's inexplicably made a return to the UFC this year.
While Jackson "won" his fight in April against Dean Barry, it was only due to Barry being (rightly) disqualified for a pair of illegal strikes.
Jackson is clearly not a UFC-caliber fighter. Hence the low number for Rodriguez – he's expected to dispatch Jackson easily and is -190 to win in Round 1.
But here's the issue: For all of his faults as an MMA fighter, Jackson is actually a reasonably competent kickboxer. He looked solid during the striking exchanges with Barry in his last fight.
Rodriguez is another opponent who seems unlikely to take the easy victory by grappling with Jackson, who also seems to have a solid chin – at the very least one that hasn't been damaged through years of hard training and fighting.
I expect Rodriguez to win the fight, but I don't think he does it with any of the first 25 strikes. Take the over, and hope this one doesn't have another fluky ending. Taking the over 4.0 minutes prop on Rodriguez is another way to work off this thesis.
Quick Picks
- Piera Rodriguez Under 2.0 Takedowns: Piera Rodriguez is fighting Sam Hughes on the undercard. "Sampage" is riding a two-fight winning streak z – after dropping her first three UFC fights – with the biggest difference being her utilization of grappling. Hughes was 0-for-3 on takedowns in her first three UFC fights, and six for 12 since. Which brings me to Rodriguez. Piera is almost assuredly the better striker here and unlikely to want to initiate the grappling with Hughes.
- Nick Maximov Under 34.5 Significant Strikes: In three UFC fights, Nick Maximov has significant strike totals of 29, 14 and four – and two of those fights went all three rounds. Both he and his opponent, Jacob Malkoun, will be more than happy to make this a grappling match. This line has already dropped from 37.5 strikes, so get on it fast.
