Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen Odds
A future Featherweight title challenger could emerge from Saturday's UFC Vegas 63 main event between No. 5-ranked contender Calvin Kattar and No. 6-ranked Arnold Allen.
Kattar — Massachusetts born and trained — dropped a controversial decision in his last matchup against Josh Emmett and is 7-4 under the UFC banner. Saturday's Fight Night (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) will mark his fifth consecutive main event appearance in his 29-bout career.
The Englishman, Allen, enters on an 11-fight winning streak with a 9-0 record in the UFC. Saturday's bout is his first UFC Main Event, and he's never been past the third round in his career.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday's matchup and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Kattar | Allen | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-6 | 18-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:36 | 12:59 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/26/1988 | 1/22/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.19 | 3.31 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 7.15 | 2.22 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg. | 0.44 | 1.41 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 50% |
| TD Def | 91% | 76% |
| Submission Avg. | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Kattar is both the taller and longer fighter and the superior boxer. He keeps a higher pace on the feet (13.3 to 7.8 significant strike attempts per minute) than Allen, and his cardio is proven over five rounds.
He's also faced a far superior strength of schedule, taking on top-15 caliber Featherweights since 2017; Allen has one win over a ranked contender, and Kattar is undoubtedly the most challenging test of his career.
It's also worth mentioning that Kattar's metrics (7.15 strikes absorbed per minute, 54% strike defense) are permanently skewed by his record-setting loss against Max Holloway (41% defense, 447 strikes absorbed). His striking defense against Dan Ige (62%), Giga Chikadze (64%), and Josh Emmett (68%) are far more indicative measurements of his actual skill level.
Without that Holloway fight, Kattar and Allen's stats are much more similar; Kattar has just kept a higher pace — and against better fighters.
I'm uncertain as to which fighter carries more power. "The Boston Finisher" hasn't necessarily lived up to his nickname in UFC Main Events — though he has brutalized some of his opponents, particularly with his elbows.
His damage is more based on attrition than loading up with any particular strike. He has the better hands — and elbows — but Allen makes better use of his lower half, mixing up his boxing with knees and kicks.
Hand fighting and dirty boxing — and transitions between distance striking and clinching — will be essential. If Kattar can consistently land elbows in tight or rip Allen with hooks to the body, that could be a significant factor in the outcome.
Kattar tends to heat hunt — and fails to attack his opponents' legs or body — but he has an aesthetic flow between his punches and elbows, and he can make opponents pay from awkward angles.
Allen's left hand may be the most impactful weapon in the fight. Although Kattar has the reach advantage, Allen is likely a bit faster and can neutralize the discrepancy. He sets it up well with his strikes and combinations, but he can get stuck staring at his opponents through stretches of his bouts; and often relies on scoring knockdowns or wobbling opponents to swing rounds.
Kattar is the superior minute-winner on the feet and is also exceedingly durable. And I doubt that Allen carries as much power as Josh Emmett, who never had Kattar in serious trouble.
I'm unsure how much grappling will factor in. Allen is more reliable in shooting takedowns, historically. However, Kattar has mixed some more offensive wrestling into his game during these five-round fights.
The American offers excellent takedown defense (91%), and I suspect he's the better defensive grappler between the two, while Allen is the superior offensive grappler, so it's likely a wash.
Ultimately, the assessment comes down to Kattar's five-round output, cardio, durability, and strength of schedule measured against a fighter who seems his equal based on past performance but who also has question marks in all those areas. Unless Allen has taken a step forward as a fighter, Kattar should control the minute winning — mainly down the stretch.
Kattar vs. Allen Pick
I projected Calvin Kattar as a 55.3% favorite (-124 implied odds) in this fight, and I would bet his moneyline up to -114 (53.3%) at a two percent edge compared to my projection.
Moreover, I project slight value on the fight to reach a decision (projected -144, listed -130 at BetRivers), but I'm not interested in playing any Over on this matchup; there's seemingly little chance of a slow-paced affair.
In the winning method market, I see value in Kattar by decision (projected +262, listed +270 at Rivers), Kattar by KO/TKO (projected +352, listed +440 at FanDuel), and Kattar inside the distance (projected +262, listed +340 at FanDuel) depending upon the book.
I'll bet Kattar's moneyline, sprinkle the finish props and look for a live bet after Rounds 2 and 3 at a better number.
The Pick: Calvin Kattar (+100, 1u at Caesars), bet to -114 | Kattar wins by KO/TKO/Submission (+340, 0.1u at FanDuel), bet to +290 | Live Bet Kattar after Rounds 2, 3
