The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 63, an 11-fight card headlined by featherweight contenders Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar. We can get player prop style action in on all 11 fights, courtesy of PrizePicks.
Betting on statistical performance for MMA is an exciting way to get some action in, even if you don't live in a legal betting state.
Below are my favorite picks for UFC Vegas 63, and some further options if you're interested in chasing bigger payouts.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Vegas 63 PrizePicks Parlay
Chase Hooper Under 46.5 Significant Strikes
Chase "The Dream" Hooper is back in action after an impressive ground-and-pound finish over Felipe Colares in his last bout. This time he's fighting Steve Garcia, who's dropping to featherweight after going 1-2 at lightweight in the UFC.
Hooper is primarily a grappler, with all three of his UFC wins coming on the ground. Where it gets tricky for this prop is that two of those three came via ground and pound, which allowed him to rack up solid volume on significant strikes.
Still, he's not a voluminous striker, landing just under four per minute in his UFC career. Garcia also absorbs just 2.33 strikes per minute, bringing Hooper's per minute projection around 3.0.
That means Hooper will have a hard time hitting this prop unless the fight goes the full 15 minutes. It's currently -200 to end early. That's enough for me to be on the under, as even a fight that goes to a decision could have enough grappling to preclude Hooper from going over this line.
Arnold Allen Over 80.5 Significant Strikes
On the other side of the coin, the main event between Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar is a -135 favorite to go the distance. Of course, being a main event that means 25 minutes, not 15.
This one has all the makings of a high-volume striking affair, with Allen averaging 3.31 significant strikes per minute, but Kattar absorbing a ridiculous 7.15.
Kattar is also unlikely to do much grappling here, averaging less than half a takedown per 15 minutes in his UFC run. That's a good thing for Allen's striking chances. He won't have to burn minutes defending takedowns or working back to his feet.
While Allen is a more active wrestler, that could enable him to rack up strikes on the ground if he's able to get it there. As a general rule, I'm OK with taking the over on strikes for the fighter with takedown upside since strikes on the ground score as well.
So long as Allen's cardio can hold up for a 25 minute fight — and I've seen nothing to indicate it won't — he should be able to clear this line easily.
Quick Picks
- Cody Durden Under 2.5 Takedowns: Anytime we see a 2.5 or higher takedown prop for a three-round fight it's worth noting. While Durden averages over four takedowns per 15 minutes, he also averages just seven minutes of fight time per fight. Both of his UFC losses have come via submission, so it's fairly likely either he or his opponent finds a finish in the first two trips to the ground.
- Dustin Jacoby Under 9.0 Minutes Fight Time: Both Jacoby and his opponent, Khalil Rountree, are powerful strikers with knockdown rates well above the divisional average. Neither man has any interest in going for takedowns. It's more of a "when" than "if" somebody gets knocked out in this one, and I'm willing to bet it occurs within the first 60% of the fight.
