(Editor's note: Josh Parisian announced prior to the start of the event that a medical issue has forced him out of his main-card bout with heavyweight Chase Sherman.)
The UFC is at its Apex facility again for a relatively low-octane fight night headlined by Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos. While the names aren't as big as usual, the potential winnings are.
If you aren't in a legal betting state, you can still join in on the fun at PrizePicks. Even if you are – PrizePicks allows you to wager on player prop-style statistical outcomes in MMA.
Below is my favorite parlay for Saturday's UFC Vegas 64 (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+), and some additional selections for those seeking bigger potential payouts.
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UFC Vegas 64 PrizePicks Parlay
Marina Rodriguez Under 120.5 Significant Strikes
Saturday's main event features top-10 strawweights Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos. This one is expected to be contested primarily on the feet, with both women as very active strikers – hence the massive line on Rodriguez.
Rodriguez has averaged right around five significant strikes per minute in her UFC career. With Lemos having a roughly average defensive rate, I've got Rodriguez projected similarly to her average on a per-minute basis.
That means Rodriguez probably clears this line if the fight goes all 25 minutes. She's had two of those in her UFC career, and both went over this week's line. However, she's never passed it in a shorter fight.
This one is -150 to end inside the distance, which already means we likely have a slight edge on the prop. Additionally, Lemos is a far more dangerous striker than the other women whom Rodriguez fought in five-round bouts: Michelle Waterson and Mackenzie Dern.
We could see a more grappling-focused gameplan from Rodriguez here, which would obviously limit the opportunities to rack up a large volume of strikes.
Finally, this fight wasn't originally scheduled for five rounds. The main event was supposed to be Bryce Mitchell vs. Mosvar Evolev before the latter withdrew due to injury.
While that news came long enough ago that Rodriguez probably had time to adjust, there's still a case to be made that she won't have the gas tank to keep up her usual output over 25 minutes if she was initially preparing for only 15. I wouldn't make this pick solely based on that, but it's a nice little bonus.
Chase Sherman Over 45.5 Significant Strikes
In his 14-fight UFC career, Chase Sherman has gone 9-4 against this line. All four of the losses came in early stoppage losses for Sherman – two submissions and two knockouts, with one of the knockouts taking place via ground and pound.
On Saturday he's fighting Josh Parisian, with Sherman as the slight favorite here. That's the first good sign for his chances to rack up some volume. Additionally, Parisian averages just one takedown per 15 minutes of fight time, so there's a good chance this one stays standing.
Given Sherman's extreme output for the division (6.51 significant strikes per minute) and both men's willingness to stand and trade, Sherman should be able to clear this line fairly quickly.
The biggest concern is probably a Sherman knockout victory. However, he usually gets there with volume, not one-shot power. His three knockout victories in the UFC all cleared this line, with two of them going over 100 significant strikes.
Quick Picks
- Jake Hadley Under 2.0 Takedowns: Going under two takedowns is always a bit scary in a flyweight fight. However, I'm expecting the takedowns to flow in the other direction for this one. Hadley is fighting Carlos Candelario, who picked up five takedowns in his Contender Series bout and two in his UFC debut. Hadley should be the better striker here, but I doubt he looks to take it to the canvas.
- Grant Dawson Under 55.5 Significant Strikes: Grant Dawson is
wrestlingfighting Mark Madsen, in a bout in which both fighters average almost four takedowns per 15 minutes. That doesn't leave much time or space for striking. Dawson has topped this line just once in seven UFC fights, and even then it was just 57. He's unlikely to be able to hold down the Olympic medalist long enough to rack up that many strikes on the ground.
