The UFC finishes out 2022 with a 13-fight card at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. That's one last chance to get some action in – even if you aren't in a legal betting state.
That's thanks to PrizePicks, where you can parlay individual fighter stats like strikes, takedowns, and fight time. Below you'll find my top parlay for the card (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+), as well as some additional picks to further boost the odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Vegas 66 PrizePicks Parlay
Sergey Morozov – Under 50.5 Significant Strikes
Sergey Morozov has topped this line just once in four UFC fights, his decision win over Raulin Paiva. Morozov is primarily a grappler, landing just shy of three takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.
This is a hard line to clear if you spend the bulk of the fight grappling. That's likely to be his gameplan here, as he takes on Journey Newson, who succumbed to all three of the takedown attempts he's faced.
Morozov is also a pretty significant -300 favorite, and it's not because of his striking. That tells us that the markets expect him to be able to convert on many of these takedowns, which again limits the striking opportunities.
With his per-minute rate of significant strikes checking in at just over three, he's unlikely to get there even in a decision. Any win before that almost certainly seals the under, so there are more paths to the under than over – exactly the kind of bet we like.
Jake Matthews Over 53.5 Significant Strikes
Australia's Jake Matthews averages a little more than three significant strikes per minute, making this line look a bit high at first blush. That goes away when you consider the matchup.
He's fighting Matthew Semelsberger, an aggressive pressure fighter who's more than happy to take two shots to deliver one. Semelsberger absorbs more than five significant strikes per minute with a negative striking differential.
While both men mix in occasional takedowns – especially Matthews – they both also have solid takedown defense, and they are far more comfortable trading on their feet.
The bigger concern is a knockout from Matthews, who's a somewhat heavy favorite. Semelsberger has never been finished in the UFC, though, so if Matthews is to break that streak, he'll likely need a high volume of strikes.
Quick Picks
- Raga Garcia Over 2.5 Takedowns: Raga Garcia has cleared this line in four straight fights, including two losses. He's fighting Maheshate, who's yet to face a takedown attempt in the UFC but has a striking background. Garcia may not do much with them, but he should get these takedowns.
- Michal Oleksiejczuk Fight Time Under 6.5 Minutes: Oleksijczuk and his opponent, Cody Brundage, have a combined 11 UFC fights. Seven of those have ended in the first round. That's pretty good odds, with the extra 1.5 minutes a nice bonus.
