(Editor's note: On Saturday evening, UFC officials announced the cancellation of the Ji Yeon Kim vs. Mandy Bohm preliminary-card bout due to Bohm's illness.)
UFC Vegas 68 is going to make for a late night when Saturday evening's event kicks off at 10 p.m. ET (7 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.
With the five-fight main card set to kick off at 1 a.m. ET and the main event slated for 3 a.m. ET walkouts, fight fans may need a few energy drinks with their UFC Vegas 68 bets.
So where should you be looking to place those wagers? Our crew has pinpointed three fights on Saturday’s late-night fight card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Billy Ward: Jeka Saragih vs. Anshul Jubli
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Jeka Saragih and Anshul Jubli are facing off for a UFC contract as part of the final of the Road to UFC lightweight tournament.
Saragih qualified for the finale on the back of two knockout wins: a beautiful spinning backfist in the quarterfinals followed by a right hand in the semis.
He throws hard leg kicks, and he has a bit of a habit of “taking turns” with his combinations rather than trying to catch his opponent coming in. He likes to catch his opponents' kicks (rather than evade or block), another muay Thai hallmark. With that said, his defense held up well in his RUFC fights.
He features surprisingly strong wrestling, landing opportunistic takedowns when the moment strikes.
Jubli has an identical 69-inch reach, but he's the lankier man at 6-foot-0. That means he’ll be giving up some power and strength to Saragih, who can pack more muscle on a smaller frame.
Jubli is a fast starter who likes to brawl, but he takes some damage himself. He picked up a split-decision victory in a back-and-forth contest in the RUFC. While he performed well early, he lost the final round and was visibly wearing down late.
He’s a puncher/boxer who likes to swarm with strikes. While he does a great job mixing in body shots, he rarely throws kicks. He was taken down on occasion but scrambled back to his feet relatively quickly each time.
I’m expecting a striking battle here, with both men comfortable exchanging blows. Saragih has the takedown upside in theory. However, I was impressed enough by Jubli’s getups to think that grappling exchanges won’t last long. Still, some moments of control time won’t hurt in the eyes of the judges, while serving to tire out Jubli.
Saragih’s heavy strikes tend to leave him overextended, but that’s less concerning against an opponent who won’t look for takedowns. They also give him an edge against Jubli, who tends to take a lot of damage. With Jubli also not kicking much, my concerns about Saragih’s defense are lessened.
When you couple that Saragih’s power/explosiveness edge, I expect him to eventually find a home for some big strikes. I’m surprised he’s a slight underdog here, given Jubli’s split-decision victory to get into the finals.
I’d bet Saraigh down to -120, and I’m also interested in his stoppage odds at +180.
Pick: Jeka Saragih (-102) |
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Sean Zerillo: Tatsuro Taira vs. Jesus Aguilar
Staff Writer at The Action Network
With several low-level fights on tap for Saturday, there are vast differences in odds – in similar markets – from one book to the next.
If you’re looking to take a top-down approach to bet MMA, compare odds across multiple books on the same market and bet the discrepancy.
For example, some books have the Tatsura Taira vs. Jesus Aguilar bout lined as high as -280 (73.7% implied) to end inside the distance, while DraftKings is as low as -200 (66.7% implied).
Additionally, Taira is between -135 (DraftKings) and -167 to win by submission across the market. Except at BetRivers, however, where he is -108 (51.9%).
Moreover, BetRivers has a prop for either fighter to win by submission at -114. And considering Aguilar’s propensity to jump guillotine – in addition to the likelihood of a high-paced, scramble-filled affair between these opponents – that seems like an easy wager to place.
I projected the bout to end inside the distance 74% of the time (-286 implied), and I would rather bet the fight to end inside the distance at -200 – at a 7.4% edge – as opposed to betting Taira to win inside the distance at -175 (DraftKings). That's compared to my projection at -215 – an edge of just 4.6%.
You can bet that line up to -250 and place Taira’s submission prop (projected -144) up to -130.
The Picks: Fight ends Inside the Distance (-200 at DraftKings) | Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission (-108 at BetRivers) | Either fighter wins by Submission (-114 at BetRivers)
Dann Stupp: Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Adam Fugitt
Senior Editor at The Action Network
What's the only thing as good as winning a bet because your breakdown worked to perfection? Winning a bet even when your breakdown was crap.
That's why I'm targeting the main-card opener of Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Adam Fugitt for my UFC Vegas 68 best bet.
After all, even if I'm wrong with my initial assessment of this fight, I think I still have a really solid shot of cashing my bet anyway.
Gotta love that.
Anyway, as far as these welterweights go, I'm pretty convinced that Kinoshita, who's fresh off a Contender Series win, is the real deal. The Japanese fighter has legit striking skills, and at just 22, he also has the type of young bravado you want to see in top prospects who are tapped for stardom.
I think oddsmakers and bettors may see Kinoshita's 6-1 record (which arguably should be 7-0) and his lack of big-name opponents and then write him off as a prematurely overhyped unknown. But Kinoshita could easily walk in there and end this fight in lightning-quick – and highlight-reel – fashion.
Fugitt (8-3) isn't so much a test or gatekeeper as he is a warm body for his Japanese opponent. I know that sounds harsh – and I've got nothing at all against Fugitt personally, of course – but he doesn't have a notable win on his record. In fact, his only real claim to fame is taking Michael Morales to the third round before ultimately getting punched out in his ill-fated UFC debut last year.
Still, Fugitt possesses some grappling upside, and as the underdog (+260) in what's essentially a no-lose situation, he may be willing to go for broke standing or – ideally – on the mat.
More than likely, though, 34-year-old Fugitt is simply too willing to stand and trade with the young Kinoshita, and he pays the price for it.
Either way, a bet on "under 2.5 rounds" should come through. Whether Kinoshita is the real deal like I suspect – or simply a bust waiting to be exploited – under 2.5 works. And at an affordable price of -140, I'm willing to bite.
I'd play this down to -160, though I'd avoid the u1.5 that some books are offering.
The Pick: Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Adam Fugitt under 2.5 rounds (-140 at Caesars)
