(Editor's note: On Saturday evening, UFC officials announced the cancellation of the Ji Yeon Kim vs. Mandy Bohm preliminary-card bout due to Bohm's illness.)
Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 68 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's event.
In this weekly feature, Action Network's MMA team welcomes in a revolving cast of outside contributors and fellow combat-sports analysts. Since its formation, the Prop Squad has delivered a healthy 22.1% ROI, including two cashes with our last picks.
This week marks the return of squad members John LanFranca, Tony Sartori, Sean Zerillo, Billy Ward and Dann Stupp.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which streams on ESPN+ (10 p.m. ET) from Las Vegas, below.
As with all betting, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types.
Billy Ward: Mandy Bohm by Split/Majority Decision (+1100)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:50 p.m. ET (UPDATE: This fight has been canceled.)
Mandy Bohm probably isn’t a UFC-caliber fighter. She’s 0-2 in her stint with the promotion with a pair of unanimous 30-27 losses to her record.
Then again, it’s hard to say much better about Ji Yeon Kim. Bohm’s opponent for Saturday's fight has dropped four in a row in the UFC octagon, with her last win more than three years ago.
She’s 3-6 overall in the promotion, but two of her three wins were split decisions.
In her last fight, Bohm struggled with the grappling of Victoria Leonardo, who took her down in two of the three rounds. Kim is a much better matchup for her, as she’s yet to land a takedown in nine UFC fights (on three attempts).
That lack of grappling upside from either woman makes things hard on the judges. Both should throw a solid volume of punches, but neither has been finished by strikes in her professional career.
That makes it hard to determine who’s winning, as the likeliest fight here consists of a large volume of relatively low-damage striking. Once it gets to the judges in those scenarios, it’s anyone's contest.
Either fighter to win by split or majority decision is +350 and is the safer overall bet. But this is Prop Squad, and we’re hunting the big juice. The +1100 on the underdog is too good to pass up.
The Pick: Mandy Bohm by Split/Majority Decision (+1100 at DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Yi Zha wins by Decision (+750)
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
I view Yi Zha as the value side of his matchup from a moneyline perspective (projected +174), and I would bet him small down to about +190 in this preliminary card bout, which also serves as the Road to UFC featherweight tournament final.
Additionally, you can play Zha's decision prop (+750 at Fanduel), which is as low as +575 (BetRivers) domestically and +450 in overseas markets (projected +586).
With several lower-level fights on Saturday's card, there are odds discrepancies across the market.
Zha has significantly more fighting experience and a potential cardio advantage over his opponent, based on Lee's history of early finishes and lackluster optics when extended.
If this fight does hit the scorecards, Zha may have as much decision equity as Lee – if not more – and his decision prop is undoubtedly worth a sprinkle at long odds.
Pick: Yi Zha wins by Decision (+750) |
John LanFranca: Doo Ho Choi via Round 2/3 KO (+850)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:25 a.m. ET
Doo Ho Choi, once one of the hottest prospects in MMA, has not competed in over three years, and there are obvious question marks regarding what version we will see on Saturday. With that said, he will undoubtedly have a power advantage against Kyle Nelson, and I believe it’s only a matter of time until he can get the finish.
Before Choi’s three-fight skid, he scored three knockout wins in less than three minutes each, displaying the power and timing that made some believe he could be a future title contender.
However, it’s very difficult to expect that kind of performance to materialize for a fighter off such a long layoff. I expect Choi to use the first few minutes of the fight judiciously to get down his rhythm and timing.
And against Kyle Nelson, loves to bring a torrid pace to the opening frame, patience may be key. If Nelson is going to try and get his wrestling going, it is most likely to find success in the first round. He also will use leg kicks, though the explosiveness of his kicking attack wanes as the bout progresses, as does his striking defense.
Choi’s patience should pay dividends as Nelson clearly starts to slow down around the mid-point of Round 2.
The fight is lined to start round two at around -200 at almost every book, signaling approximately a 65% chance we will see the second round. If that's the case, Nelson's cardio will start to fade, and Choi will be the much more dangerous fighter.
To Nelson’s credit, he has never been finished in the first round in his career. Any delay in Choi’s usual fireworks show will give tremendous value to a Round 2 or 3 stoppage. I expect Choi to get comfortable in Round 2. That should time up perfectly with Nelson’s propensity to tire out, and Choi’s power should win out in the form of a KO or TKO.
FanDuel is offering this specific value under the "KO/TKO Round Combos" menu.
Pick: Doo Ho Choi by KO/TKO in Round 2 or Round 3 (+850) |
Tony Sartori: Da Un Jung via Submission (+850)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:25 a.m. ET
The co-main event features light heavyweights Da Un Jung vs. Devin Clark. Jung boasts a four-inch height and three-inch reach advantage, so it would not be shocking at all to see Clark shoot for takedowns and attempt to bring this fight to the mat.
Over his last 10 fights, Clark has amassed a whopping 52 takedown attempts. However, his desire for grappling has not led to a ton of success as he has lost five of those 10 scraps.
Clark's double-edged sword is that he is a well-rounded fighter who is decent at everything but not particularly dominant at anything. He has some power and is a fairly accurate striker who attempts a lot of grappling with minor success.
Across the octagon, Jung boasts a 4-1-1 record in the UFC and has demonstrated both his power and strong defense. As evidenced in his UFC-debut submission victory over Khadis Ibragimov, Jung has a great knack for stuffing takedown attempts while finding the opponent's neck.
If Clark shoots for takedowns inefficiently once again, then there is definitely a scenario in which Jung finishes him off with a counter-submission. The odds on Jung's submission prop are so long because he typically prefers to box.
With that said, he showcased his strong grappling in a dominating unanimous decision victory over William Knight and boasts two professional submission wins. Meanwhile, Clark has tapped three times through 14 UFC scraps.
Pick: Da Un Jung via Submission (+850) |
Dann Stupp: Sergey Spivak via Submission (+350)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:55 a.m. ET
Senior Editor at The Action Network
It's not the flashiest pick. It certainly doesn't have the longest odds. And it clearly lacks in the creativity department.
But hey, we're just looking for winners, right?
For Saturday's (err, Sunday morning's) headliner, I think the oddsmakers have it lined right with Sergey Spivak at about -230 and the comeback on Derrick Lewis at +195. I also think the total – a rather swift 1.5 rounds – sounds about right.
So, that forced me into the prop market, where I found a few plays I like in this middle-of-the-night heavyweight tilt. In addition to a flier on Lewis to win via Round 1 knockout (+700), I think we're getting solid odds on the other most obvious path to victory: Spivak via submission.
We know Spivak's best avenue in this matchup is in the clinch and on the mat. He simply can't give "The Black Beast" room to operate and hurl those bungalows, and he's got to keep the action tight and up close.
If Spivak remains in close quarters with Lewis, I think he'll eventually find an opening for a submission. Whether it's Lewis leaving his head and limbs exposed during a get-up – or exposing his neck during a scramble or takedown defense – Spivak may find that the path to least resistance is with his grappling and not his fists.
Sure, the "Polar Bear" would love to hop into mount and rain down punches, but he may find easier opportunities if Lewis' cardio gives out or he simply checks out once more.
With a 3.5-to-1 return on this very likely outcome, I'll happily take a swing.
The Pick: Sergey Spivak via Submission (+350 at BetRivers)
