Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield Odds
The UFC returns to the small cage at the UFC Apex center on Saturday for a women's flyweight showdown between No. 10-ranked contender Erin Blanchfield and No. 3 Jessica Andrade, who headline the UFC Vegas 69 event.
The Brazilian Andrade is a former strawweight champion and flyweight title challenger. She's currently the No. 6 ranked contender in the 115-pound division – and intends to move back to that weight class. However, she took this fight with Blanchfield on short notice in place of Talia Santos after a dominant victory one month ago at UFC 283 against Lauren Murphy.
Blanchfield, a New Jersey native, will look to move to 5-0 in the UFC in her first career five-round fight. At age 23, she's viewed as one of the top prospects – and likeliest future title challengers – in the UFC.
Can Blanchfield extend her winning streak and continue her ascension?
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections and utilize those factors to bet on the main event for UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield, which streams entirely on ESPN+ (4 p.m. ET).
Tale of the Tape
| Andrade | Blanchfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-9 | 10-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:46 | 10:19 |
| Height | 5'1" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/25/1991 | 5/4/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.80 | 5.79 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.26 | 2.45 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.72 | 4.00 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 68% |
| TD Def | 73% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 1.4 |
- Blanchfield is more naturally suited to the 125-pound division, with an obvious height advantage (three inches taller) and reach (four-inch advantage).
- Still, Andrade likely hits as hard as any fighter in the UFC, pound for pound, and she should possess a clear technical striking advantage.
- Andrade is likely a future UFC Hall of Famer as the only woman in UFC to compete in three weight classes, with individual or shared records for the most wins (15), bouts (22) and bonuses (nine) in UFC women's history.
- Not only is Andrade incredibly violent, she is also creative, scoring a slam knockout over Rose Namajunas (to win a title) and the first standing arm triangle in UFC history in her most recent main event:
A standing arm triangle?! Wow, how can you not love Andrade haha. pic.twitter.com/FfVELuQGuw
— MS (@UFC_Obsessed) April 24, 2022
Still, Blanchfield likely has the grappling upside in this fight. The American isn't overzealous in pursuing the takedown (5.8 attempts per 15 minutes, 68% accuracy). Still, she is reliable in trying to execute her game plan and typically efficient in her shot selection.
Once Blanchfield gets opponents to the mat, she offers excellent top pressure for a lighter-weight class, violent elbows and ground strikes, and a high IQ for advancing to dominant positions.
While Andrade is both an explosive and well-rounded fighter, her takedown defense has proven problematic – particularly against larger fighters – and she can either get stuck on her back for extended stretches or give her back as she attempts to stand.
Andrade is dangerous everywhere, and she can certainly snatch up a submission in a scramble. Still, I expect Blanchfield to get the better of those transitions. Blanchfield should eventually find herself in back mount, where she can ride out a round or finish the fight – on at least one occasion.
Or she will look to advance to the crucifix against a stronger, but smaller, opponent.
Blanchfield struggled to complete takedowns against J.J. Aldrich last June and was potentially going to lose a decision (closed as high as -560) before securing a second-round submission.
And if Blanchfield can't get takedowns against Andrade – or at least slow down the early pace with some amount of clinching/grappling – the Brazilian will walk her down, step through her power, and likely beat her up on the feet.
However, if Blanhfield can survive that early onslaught, she may be able to find takedowns later on in the fight instead, even if they don't come immediately.
Andrade is a fast starter, but she has never had great cardio. Although she has some five-round experience, I suspect Blanchfield has a superior stamina base. And she may be able to consolidate takedowns and impose her will down the stretch.
Whoever wins the fight may do so in a dominant fashion, and in such cases, I typically side with the superior wrestler.
Andrade vs. Blanchfield Pick
I projected Erin Blanchfield as a slight (49.6%) underdog (+102 implied) in this matchup, and I would bet her moneyline down to +110 (47.6% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my number.
I don't see value on either side of the total, projecting the fight to end inside the distance at a 68% clip (-208 implied; -250 listed odds),
However, I see enough value on Blanchfield to win by submission (projected +348, listed +460 at FanDuel) or inside the distance (projected +237, listed +330 at DraftKings) to add a small prop bet.
The Picks: Erin Blanchfield (+115, 0.5u at DraftKings) | Blanchfield wins by any Knockout, Submission, or DQ (+330, 0.1u at DraftKings)
