Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier Odds
| Vettori Odds | -124 |
| Cannonier Odds | +106 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-215 / +166) |
| Venue | UFC Apex in Las Vegas |
| Time | 12:25 a.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN |
| Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel | |
Two of the UFC's top middleweights square off in the UFC Vegas 75 main event on Saturday in what is effectively the division's bronze-medal match.
Both Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier have effectively cleaned out the division behind champion Israel Adesanya and former champ Robert Whittaker. Now, either could go a long way toward staking his claim to another title shot with a win in the ESPN-televised headliner.
Does 39-year-old Cannonier have one last run at the belt in him? Or will Vettori send him to the back of the line?
Let's break it all down, including the best way to bet Vettori vs. Cannonier.
Tale of the Tape
| Vettori | Cannonier | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-6-1 | 16-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:21 | 12:04 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 77" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 9/20/1993 | 3/16/1984 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.38 | 4.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.65 | 3.86 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.77 | 0.17 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 25% |
| TD Def | 75% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Vettori's unbeaten streak against opponents outside of Adesanya and Whittaker is currently sitting at nine fights. His durability and technical striking have been too much for everyone else to handle.
Vettori is a southpaw, and I've been very impressed with his footwork during my tape study for this bout.
A crucial aspect of fighting opposite-stance opponents is the battle of the lead foot. Whoever is able to keep his lead foot outside of his opponent has a huge edge in the striking, and it's a battle Vettori consistently wins. This enables him to repeatedly punish his opponents with leg kicks, softening them up for punches to the head.
Vettori's also a solid grappler with above-average takedown defense while opportunistically hunting takedowns of his own. He's the only middleweight to land multiple takedowns in a fight against Adesanya, picking up a total of six across their eight rounds of cage time together.
Vettori has also never been stopped as a professional, a fact made even more impressive considering his past opponents. Going the distance with Adesanya twice is no small feat. It was made possible by both his strong chin and his sound technical defense.
The biggest criticism of Vettori's game is his lack of power. He has no knockouts in his UFC career, and he has just two finishes by submission among his nine wins. Winning minutes consistently at this level is difficult, but he's been relatively successful in that pursuit so far.
An epic middleweight showdown 𝐈𝐒 𝐂𝐎𝐌𝐈𝐍𝐆…😤👀
Don't miss @MarvinVettori vs Jared Cannonier Saturday LIVE on @ESPN!#UFCVegas75 | Main Card 10pmET pic.twitter.com/T2ANgRM2xb
— UFC (@ufc) June 15, 2023
A lack of power isn't an issue for Cannonier, who entered the UFC as a heavyweight before eventually working his way all the way down to middleweight. He's finished six of his nine wins via knockout, and he's lost to only Whittaker and Adesanya at middleweight.
As his string of knockouts suggests, Cannonier throws heavy shots with both his hands and his legs. While he's primarily an orthodox fighter, he switches stances frequently in order to throw heavy power kicks from his left leg to all levels.
While they're effective, I suspect Vettori and his team are prepared for them – especially since even I was able to pick up on that tendency while breaking down this fight.
Cannonier's volume lags a bit behind Vettori, but he's still an active striker. And like the Italian, he throws plenty of leg kicks. That will make the lead foot battle even more critical here, as it's difficult if not impossible to kick the leg of an opponent with outside leverage.
Cannonier's best plan for this fight is to stay at range and use his three-inch reach advantage to land heavy shots from the outside. With that said, Vettori usually has no issue with longer opponents, so Cannonier will need to keep his footwork and distance management sharp.
Vettori vs. Cannonier Pick
With Cannonier's biggest edge here being his power, a matchup with the ultra-durable Vettori is a tough one for him. We've seen the line creep Vettori's way throughout the week as the betting public comes around to that fact.
The likeliest scenario here is that Vettori is able to put money in the bank with leg kicks and volume while avoiding the power shots of Cannonier. With this being a five-round fight, it could very well come down to which fighter damages the other's leg more effectively. If it does, my money is on Vettori thanks to his footwork.
Add in his ability to steal minutes and rounds with the occasional opportunistic takedown, and we have a recipe for Vettori pulling away down the stretch. The line has moved enough that I'm not seeing a ton of value on the moneyline – but I also don't see a quick Vettori win.
Therefore, I've landed on FanDuel's "Round 4, 5, or decision" alternate round betting line. It's currently +105, and it's worth sacrificing the 25 cents on his decision-only line at +130.
If you don't have access to FanDuel – or the former line moves – I'm also fine with taking his decision line straight up.
Pick: Vettori in Rounds 4, 5, or by decision (+105) |
