The UFC returns to ESPN, and we've got UFC Vegas 75 best bets for Saturday's 12-bout fight card.
UFC Vegas 75 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The main card airs on ESPN (10 p.m. ET) following prelims on ESPN2 (7 p.m. ET). The full fight card also simulcasts on ESPN+.
So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Dann Stupp: Jimmy Flick vs. Alessandro Costa
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
I'm going to keep this breakdown fairly simple since it's a pretty straightforward approach to this bet.
Jimmy Flick's best and perhaps only shot at victory against Alessandro Costa is likely via submission. However, Costa is not only more than competent there – the BJJ black belt has never been submitted, and he's dished out six submissions of his own in 12 career wins – but he should also have a decided edge in striking.
Flick recently came out of retirement and looked pretty bad in a loss to Charles Johnson earlier this year. I can't imagine Flick's going to display an improved level of motivation or skills at this point in his career. And durability was a concern even before the layoff.
If anything, I think oddsmakers and bettors may still be overvaluing Flick's flying-triangle win over Cody Durden in 2020 that preceded Flick's short-lived retirement.
Additionally, I think Costa may actually be a bit undervalued due to his recent UFC-debut loss to Amir Albazi. Keep in mind: Albazi is the No. 3-ranked contender at flyweight, so it wasn't exactly a typical promotional debut for Costa, who was a substantial underdog.
So, with Flick perhaps a bit overvalued, and with Costa perhaps a bit undervalued, the play seems obvious. But rather than betting into that chalky moneyline (-275), I'm going to put faith in his finishing ability and bet Costa to win inside the distance.
Bet365 has a market-best -115 at the time of this writing, and I'd bet Acosta via finish down to -150.
The Pick: Alessandro Costa by KO, TKO, submission or DQ (-115 at Bet365)
Billy Ward: Nicolas Dalby vs. Muslim Salikhov
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
I’ve written pretty extensively about this fight this week, but I keep coming back to it. It should be an extremely entertaining affair between Nicolas Dalby and “The King of Kung Fu” Muslim Salikhov.
Both men have traditional martial arts backgrounds featuring tons of flashy striking techniques, and both are in the later stages of their careers. It’s a sharp booking from the UFCs matchmaking department; neither man is likely to challenge for a title, but both are still capable of putting on fun fights.
I was impressed by the recent outings from both fighters. Salikhov connected with a beautiful spinning back kick to put away Andre Fialho while Dalby put a pace on Warlley Alves en route to a split-decision win. A split decision over a Brazilian in Brazil is as good as a unanimous decision anywhere else in my book.
Two factors lead me to Dalby in this one, though. First is the grappling. Dalby was able to survive the ground with – and at times win grappling exchanges against – high-level jiu-jitsu fighters in Alves and Claudio Silva. Dalby is a brown belt himself with slick submissions of his own.
While Salikhov is likely to be the better wrestler, he’d probably do himself more harm than good if he landed a takedown. He comes from a background in sanda, a combat sport that features striking and takedowns, but no ground work.
Assuming it stays mostly standing, Dalby’s pace and pressure will be a nightmare stylistically for Salikhov. His flashy kicks need time and space to set up, but Dalby generally allows neither for his opponents.
I also think Dalby has the better cardio here – or invests in body and leg strikes enough to wear out his opponents – to take over late. I have no issue with chasing juicier lines with Dalby by decision, or Dalby and round "overs" in a same game parlay.
Still, the moneyline is good enough for me, and I’d take it down to +120.
The Pick: Nicolas Dalby (+165 at DraftKings)
Dan Tom: Armen Petrosyan vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
Despite coming in looking to take a stab at the underdog, I ended up liking the favorite – so much so that I ended up zeroing in on a prop.
The main card of UFC Vegas 75 features a middleweight showdown between Contender Series product Armen Petrosyan and former Cage Warriors champion Christian Leroy Duncan.
Although Petrosyan has more UFC experience and works at a slightly more consistent pace, I couldn't help but notice his stylistic troubles with both the southpaw stance and left hands, in general.
Not only does Duncan like to fight out of a southpaw stance, but the English fighter also appears to have excellent eyes in exchanges and a knack for improvisational striking.
Add in his heavy left hook from the orthodox stance and what appears to be superb finishing instincts, and I'll happily take a shot on the fighter with the higher ceiling to force a stoppage in the smaller cage.
I'm not sure what it is about Petrosyan's style that makes him so susceptible to left hands, but for 2-1 odds on Duncan's knockouts prop, I'm willing to find out.
Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan by KO (+210) |
Tony Sartori: Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
In the UFC Vegas 75 main event, we have a middleweight bout between No. 3-ranked contender Marvin Vettori and No. 4 Jared Cannonier. Both of these guys have already had their shot at champion Israel Adesanya, so the winner of this fight gets to stay in the title picture while the loser will likely have a very long road to getting another shot at the 185-pound strap.
This scrap should be a tremendous showcase of high-level MMA since both guys have always been "good but not good enough." Vettori is 5-3 over his past eight fights with his three losses coming to Robert Whittaker (No. 2 contender) and Adesanya (twice).
Meanwhile, Cannonier is 6-2 over his past eight fights with his two losses coming against – you guessed it – Whittaker and Adesanya. Both of these guys are terrific middleweights but have just not been able to enter that elite status.
So, how will this fight play out? It should be a back-and-forth affair from the moment the first bell rings since both guys stack up similarly. Cannonier is longer and could use his reach to his advantage, especially considering he is the more technical striker.
But, will that be enough in a five-round affair against a guy who does not get knocked out? Vettori has a chin made of iron, having never been beaten inside the distance in his entire professional career despite facing some absolute killers in the octagon.
This is where I think Cannonier will get in trouble. Because as the fight goes on, I think Vettori's stamina will prevail. He will likely try to bring Cannonier to the mat several times as well, and a takedown can always steal a round even if Cannonier was winning in the striking department.
With more ways to rack up points and a chin of iron, give me the younger Vettori to outpace Cannonier en route to a decision victory.
