Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 75 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's ESPN and ESPN 2 event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +22.0 units and a 11.9% ROI to date.
This week marks the return of Prop Squad members Billy Ward, Dan Tom, Clint MacLean, Liam Heslin and Tony Sartori.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which airs on ESPN (10 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 (7 p.m. ET) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Billy Ward: Tereza Bleda by Submission (+500)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
Tereza Belda is nicknamed “Ronda” as in Rousey thanks to the 21-year-old's suffocating grappling style – and maybe a bit due to her extremely lackluster striking skills. While the nickname might be (is) presumptuous for a 6-1 upstart, it’s not totally without reason.
Like her (nick)namesake, Bleda has relentlessly pursued takedowns in her UFC/Contender Series fights while selling out with submission attempts on the ground. Things tend to turn south if she doesn’t get them, especially in the cardio department, but the effort has been there.
She also drew an extremely tough UFC debut against Natalia Silva, who’s now 3-0 in the promotion with two finishes. This time she’s fighting Gabriella Fernandes, who was taken down four times in her own UFC debut.
While it’s hard to know how susceptible to submissions Fernandes is, when we’re hunting for bets at Prop Squad odds, opportunity is more than enough. Bleda should be able to bring this one to the canvas early and often, putting her in position to secure the sub.
I’ll be pairing this one with her inside the distance line at around +200 since a ground-and-pound finish is nearly as likely. Given her cardio struggles and her -250 moneyline, a stoppage is the likeliest way this one ends.
Pick: Tereza Bleda by submission (+500) |
Clint MacLean: Carlos Hernandez by Submission (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Denys Bondar is a fighter whom I am struggling to wrap my head around.
He has a relatively padded record, and when he made his UFC debut, he got scooped up by Malcom Gordon – and then a freak injury blew out his elbow.
Gordon is the bottom bar in the UFC, in my opinion. If you can’t get by him, you don’t belong. And while Bondar gets a pass because of the arm injury, he got rocked badly and was getting manhandled prior to that.
Carlos Hernandez is coming off a loss, but he has two full UFC fights and a Contender Series fight under his belt. Hernandez is scrappy and a high-volume striker but also a very good scrambler. Half of Hernandez’s wins come by submission, and if you look at Bondar, he is primarily a grappler with two losses by submission.
I think we might find out Bondar isn’t real on Saturday night, and I think Hernandez catches him making a mistake.
The Pick: Carlos Hernandez via submission (+650 at BetRivers)
Dan Tom: Alessandro Costa in Round 2 (+500), Round 3 (+1100)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
This week, I decided to go back to the well with another surgical shotgun spray of round props by targeting a preliminary-card bout between Jimmy Flick and Alessandro Costa.
Both men were able to find success and produce highlights on the regional scene but have struggled in recent UFC showings.
Costa is a well-rounded Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who works the body well and has shown improved striking prior to getting the call to the big show. Flick, on the other hand, is a submission specialist with do-or-die sensibilities (which is both a common thread and key to the structure of these bets).
Although Costa isn't beyond being stung with a strike while standing, the Brazilian-born fighter won't likely have to sweat that threat considering that Flick has zero knockouts to his name. In addition, I'm not sure if Flick can submit a fellow black belt soberly as I suspect that Costa will likely use the first round to stymie and stall his American counterpart.
For that reason, I'm going to split my Prop Squad pick, and I'll take a couple of fliers on Costa to pick up the pieces and force a stoppage in Rounds 2 or 3.
The Picks: Alessandro Costa in Round 2 (+500 at Betway), Costa in Round 3 (+1100 at FanDuel)
Liam Heslin: Manuel Torres vs. Nikolas Motta Ends by Submission (+450)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
Nikolas Motta has been finished in all four of his professional losses, including one by submission.
Manuel Torres has been a prolific finisher, rattling off knockouts and submissions in the first round at a high clip. The only two losses he shows on his record are submission losses in meme-like fashion in the first round.
Both fighters are still developing their well-rounded skill sets, and they are prone to making huge fight-altering mistakes. Torres is the only one of the pair with a win via submission as a professional fighter, tallying six of 13 career wins via submission. Prior to arriving to the Contender Series, Torres had six consecutive bouts end via submission in the first round, posting a 4-2 record across those six bouts.
If either fighter gets hurt on the feet in this fight, the submission becomes live, and the size mismatch and unknown cardio dynamic could present additional opportunities for submissions if the fight gets extended.
I think Torres is likely to win if the fight ends by submission, but perhaps the more experienced Motta can secure his first submission victory against a fighter like Torres with massive deficiencies in his defensive grappling.
Pick: Manuel Torres vs. Nikolas Motta ends via submission (+450 at FanDuel) |
Tony Sartori: Arman Tsarukyan by Decision (+450)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
In the UFC Vegas 75 co-main event, we have a lightweight bout between No. 8-ranked contender Arman Tsarukyan and unranked Joaquim Silva. Quite frankly, and with all due respect to Silva, but I have no idea why this fight was even made.
Yes, obviously Renato Moicano dropped out of the fight a couple of weeks ago. However, that is more than enough to find at least a relatively suitable opponent for a possible title contender in Tsarukyan – not a guy who has lost three of his past five fights and has only one noteworthy win since joining the UFC in 2015.
But, the fight was made, and Silva is predictably one of the bigger underdogs (at least -1100) we have seen in quite some time. I think Tsarukyan is going to put on a clinic in this co-main event, but does that mean it will end inside the distance?
Tsarukyan is a wrestling specialist who will have no issues shooting for takedowns and achieving them. With that said, he may just wrestle his way to an easy unanimous-decision victory, just like he did in his wins against Damir Ismagulov, Matt Frevola, Davi Ramos and Olivier Aubin-Mercier.
Meanwhile, it is not inconceivable that Silva can last all three rounds in the octagon with the No. 8 lightweight. With a 12-3 professional record, he is obviously competent inside the cage, and his Brazilian jiu-jitsu background should help on the mat.
His chin is a big weakness, but if Tsarukyan just plans to wrestle anyways, then this fight could see the final bell.
The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan via decision (+450 at bet365)
