Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva Odds
On Saturday at UFC Vegas 77, the UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas for an important main event for the women's bantamweight rankings.
No. 10-ranked UFC contender Mayra Bueno Silva takes on No. 3-ranked Holly Holm, the former champion and current No. 14 pound-for-pound fighter.
The 41-year-old Holm enters her 11th career five-round fight, including her third in her past four bouts. Conversely, 31-year-old Bueno Silva will see her professional MMA career's first five-round fight or main event.
The Brazilian enters on a three-fight winning streak – following a loss to the talented Manon Fiorot. Bueno Silva is a submission specialist, with seven of her 10 career victories by tap-out (five by armbar).
Holm is 3-1 in her past four fights – including a controversial split decision loss – and hopes to re-enter the title picture with a win in Saturday night's headliner.
The six-fight UFC Vegas 77 main card, including the bantamweight headliner, airs on ESPN (10 p.m. ET) with a simulcast on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections and utilize those factors to bet on the UFC Vegas 77 main event.
Tale of the Tape
| Holm | Bueno Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-6 | 10-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:29 | 8:50 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135.5 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 66" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/17/1981 | 8/22/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.17 | 4.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.77 | 4.71 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.92 | 0.38 |
| TD Acc | 31% | 50% |
| TD Def | 78% | 67% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.5 |
The 10-year age discrepancy immediately stands out in this fight.
As I have mentioned, the betting market undervalues the younger fighter in these matchups, winning 70.8% of the time (299-123) at an average odds of -145 (59.2% implied odds), more than 10% above expectation.
Holm has much more experience – and against better competition. She also has proven 25-minute cardio and is the bigger athlete, standing two inches taller with a three-inch reach advantage.
One would assume that Holm is the better striker, considering her professional boxing and amateur kickboxing experience.
Bueno Silva has improved her striking game in recent years and likely has the speed advantage as the younger athlete. I expect the Brazilian to keep the striking relatively competitive and to force Holm to search for clinch positions or takedowns to find a more distinct advantage.
As she has progressed in her MMA career, Holm has become much more reliant on her offensive grappling game. She's attempted 26 takedowns in her past three fights (3.15 takedown attempts per round).
Across those three fights, Holm has spent 25:08 – or more than 60% of those fights – in control positions while her opponents have managed 2:46 of control.
Bueno Silva regularly permits takedowns (67% defense), and I don't expect her to show much resistance to the first attempt or two; often, it seems like Bueno Silva would rather have her opponents take her down rather than exert her energy to get on top.
Bueno Silva has a lethal submission game off of her back. Still, if she can't threaten Holm from the bottom or finish the fight, she could lose minutes off her back after Holm consolidates top position.
Bueno Silva is a better finisher than a minute winner, particularly over a 25-minute fight against a more well-rounded combatant.
Ultimately, spending time on her back – rather than fighting to scramble and re-engage in the striking – could cost her valuable minutes in what figures to be a close and competitive affair.
Still, while Holm is the more skilled fighter, the athletic cliff has to come for her eventually; fighters in lighter weight classes rarely maintain this level of productivity into their early 40s – because their speed tends to dissipate quickly – and when Holm regresses, it might look dramatic.
Even her recent bouts against Ketlen Viera and Yana Santos weren't awe-inspiring efforts; Holm spends a ton of time fighting in clinch positions so that she can control her opponents up against the fence.
However, Bueno Silva excels at clinch-fighting too, and perhaps winning those positions will force Holm to keep striking distance and try to out-point her opponent from the outside, where she might be at a speed disadvantage.
Holm vs. Bueno Silva Pick
I projected Mayra Bueno Silva as a +151 underdog (39.8% implied odds) in this matchup. I would need +160 or better to bet Bueno Silva's moneyline.
I expect this bout to reach a decision 57% of the time (-133 implied odds), and I don't see value concerning the total.
In the winning-method market, Bueno Silva via submission (projected +319, listed +390) or inside the distance (projected +259, listed +350) both caught my attention.
I expect Holm to be the better minute-winner while Bueno Silva retains vastly more finishing upside.
Consider backing Bueno Silva in "finish only" markets.
Back Bueno Silva to win inside the distance at +300 or better, and also consider adding more on her moneyline if the price ticks higher.
The Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva to win by finish (+330 at DraftKings, 0.15u)
