Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 77 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of UFC props from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts. The squad has tallied 32.7 units of profit and a +15.9% ROI per bet over the past year.
This week marks the return of squad members Tony Sartori, Dann Stupp, Dan Tom, Clint Maclean and Billy Ward.
Check out expect prop picks for Saturday's UFC Vegas 77 event, which airs on ESPN (7 p.m. ET) from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Tony Sartori: Austin Lingo by KO (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
On the preliminary card, we have a featherweight bout between Austin Lingo and Melquizael Costa. Simply put, neither of these guys is remotely good enough to be laying north of two dollars on the moneyline in this scrap, which immediately drew my attention to Lingo.
Costa should absolutely be favored, but -225? This is a guy who is just 2-2 over his past four fights and has yet to secure a win in the UFC.
Yes, that last loss came against Thiago Moises, who is right on the cusp of a ranking in the lightweight division.
Following that loss, Costa made the decision to drop down to the 145-pound division. However, that does not concern me in this matchup since he and Lingo are nearly the same exact size both in height and reach.
With a flashy kickboxing style, Costa can be fun to watch, but that is a problematic way to fight when you have an average skill set. He opened up himself against Moises numerous times as a result of this flashy style, which allowed Moises to take him down and dominate him with some ground and pound before getting the submission.
Lingo is capable of bringing the fight to the mat, but he can also finish the fight on the feet. He has a ton of power, evidenced by his knockdowns of both Luis Saldana and Jacob Kilburn.
He also got Nate Landwehr's attention multiple times in his latest bout, though he eventually lost via submission as Lingo's biggest weakness is how easily he gives up his back.
But with Costa's preferred method of kickboxing, it would not be shocking if Lingo catches him, making +600 a good flier for this fight.
The Pick: Austin Lingo by KO, TKO or DQ (+600 at BetRivers)
Dann Stupp: Tucker Lutz in Round 3 (+1800)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
For a full breakdown of Tucker Lutz vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan, check out our UFC Vegas 77 best bets column.
As I detailed in that piece, I really like Lutz as an underdog play on Saturday, and I think we're getting some solid value on him to keep this fight close.
Ultimately, I think Lutz survives an early onslaught, finds some success with aggression on his feet, and then uses it to set up takedowns. The longer the fight goes, the more I like the chances of Lutz pulling ahead and winning.
We also know that Baghdasaryan doesn't always manage his gas tank well, and that may further encourage Lutz to take advantage of his wrestling edge.
If he implements that game plan, I think Lutz may even find an opening for a finish. He's got solid cardio and immense strength, and if he can get Baghdasaryan to the mat, the Armenian fighter could get choked out.
Both of Baghdasaryan's career losses came via submission, including his recent bout with Joshua Culibao, who simply took over once the bout went to the canvas.
FanDuel is offering us +1800 odds on Lutz to win in Round 3. I'm all aboard that flier.
Pick: Tucker Lutz wins in Round 3 (+1800) |
Dan Tom: Chelsea Chandler by KO (+480)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
For this week's Prop Squad submission, I decided to lean into the value that can be found on the underdog sides of women's MMA matchups.
Although I can understand why money has been trickling in on Norma Dumont as the more proven UFC product, I believe opponent Chelsea Chandler is live at plus money – particularly by knockout.
Dumont is definitely the more technical striker, but the Brazilian fights at a very low volume and is not beyond being dropped or rocked in both victory and defeat.
Add in Dumont's propensity to fight to her opponent's strengths and welcome 50/50 exchanges, and I can't help but see a powerful and willing slugger such as Chandler being able to create the potential fight opportunities she needs.
Not only will the smaller octagon encourage the ugly action that Chandler thrives in, but Dumont's habit of exposing her back in scrambles could get her in trouble against a fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt who has a solid sambo background to boot.
Chandler seems to prefer pounding out opposition over submitting them, so I'll be sprinkling on her knockout prop at +480 odds.
The Pick: Chelsea Chandler by KO, TKO or DQ (+480 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: Mayra Bueno Silva by KO (+1500)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
Holly Holm is a living legend at this point. At 41 years old, she seems to still just be a cut above most women in the UFC
Holm was also closing in on another title shot. However, we are seeing signs of her sliding down.
Ketlen Vieira hurt Holm multiple times in their fight and nearly submitted her with a standing rear-naked choke.
Father Time is undefeated, and I believe he is coming for Holm on Saturday.
Mayra Bueno Silva is 10 years younger, exceptionally dangerous on the ground, and has a nasty clinch striking game. In the small UFC Apex cage, Holm won’t be safe anywhere.
Bueno Silva has been training with Kayla Harrison from the PFL to sharpen her counter wrestling. Holm will be stuck at range with Silva, and I don’t think that ends well for her.
The Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva by KO, TKO or DQ (+1500 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva Ends by Split Decision (+450)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
If I’m a UFC judge, my least favorite thing to judge is probably clinch work up against the cage. Especially when neither fighter is doing a ton, how do you score it?
On the one hand, the fighter who’s forced her opponent’s back on the fence is controlling the action. On the other hand, position without damage isn’t supposed to be rewarded.
To make it even trickier, imagine that the fighter with her back on the fence is the more active striker in this situation. She's trying to knee and elbow their bigger, stronger opponent, but can’t get much going due to the position. Do we punish her for being controlled, or reward her mostly futile efforts?
That exact scenario is how we could spend a good chunk of this weekend’s UFC Vegas 77 main event. The 41-year-old Holly Holm has compensated for her decline in speed and reflexes by jamming opponents into the cage relentlessly.
While she’ll pick up the occasional takedown, she could be hesitant to do so against Mayra Bueno Silva, who has a dangerous submission game off her back.
Why take that risk when you can simply stall her out in the clinch?
That doesn’t make for an exciting fight, or one that’s easy to judge. All it takes is one dissenting judge for this bet to pay off – and possible even just in one round.
I’m hedging this pick with a Bueno Silva moneyline bet since she’s the likely beneficiary for a deviation from the usual Holm formula. Of course, we could also hit the double whammy, with Bueno Silva getting the nod on two judges' scorecards.
The Pick: Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva to be won by split or majority decision (+450 at DraftKings)
