Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Odds
On Saturday the UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas for an 11-fight card headlined by an exciting lightweight bout between No. 6 contender Rafael Fiziev and No. 7-ranked Mateusz Gamrot.
Fiziev is 6-2 in the UFC and enters off a majority decision loss to Justin Gaethe in a Fight of the Night performance at UFC 286, one of the best scraps of the year. Fiziev has earned performance bonuses in six consecutive bouts, is 3-0 inside the smaller Apex cage, and won via fifth-round finish in his only prior main event or five-round fight.
Gamrot is 5-2 in the UFC but could easily be 6-1 or 4-3, depending upon the judges, while managing a 2-1 record in close and competitive fights against Guram Kutateladze (split loss), Jalin Turner (split win) and Arman Tsarukyan (controversial unanimous decision).
Still, Gamrot, the former KSW champion, has much more experience than Fiziev in five-round fights and seemingly superior cardio.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for tonight's UFC Vegas 79 main event between Mateusz Gamrot and Rafael Fiziev (7 p.m. ET main card, ESPN+) and utilize those factors to bet on these lightweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 8:55 p.m. ET.
Tale of the Tape
| Fiziev | Gamrot | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2 | 22-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:16 | 12:16 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 156 pounds | 156 pounds |
| Reach | 71 inches | 70 inches |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/5/1993 | 12/11/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 5.06 | 3.03 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 5.17 | 3.23 |
| SS Defense | 48% | 60% |
| Take Down Average | 0.31 | 4.54 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 31% |
| TD Def | 90% | 90% |
| Submission Average | 0.0 | 0.2 |
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup with Fiziev providing superior kickboxing and muay Thai acumen while Gamrot will attempt to overwhelm Fiziev with pace, pressure and takedown attempts.
Gamrot is an excellent chain wrestler and mixes his striking exceptionally well with his grappling, which creates offensive openings. He has elite durability and cardio, and he proved that he can maintain a ridiculous pace in that controversial win over Tsarukyan. He shot 21 takedown attempts in 25 minutes, in line with his UFC average of 14.5 takedown attempts per 15 minutes or nearly one per minute.
Gamrot is also a sound defensive striker (60% striking defense). He is adept at staying outside his opponent's range or getting all the way in on a leg, where he can avoid maximum leverage from opposing strikes. He moves awkwardly and is difficult for any opponent to win cleanly against, which made Beneil Dariush's win over Gamrot all the more impressive.
Still, the other close and controversial decisions involving Gamrot aren't a coincidence; he has an odd style to fight against, but since he's so focused on wrestling – as opposed to landing damage – his game isn't as practical under the modernized scoring system.
It's difficult for Gamrot to separate from opponents substantially, but he is always moving forward, so the optics often come down to a subjective preference by individual judges.
While Fiziev has shown strong takedown defense (90%), Gamrot eventually breaks through all his opponents' defensive wrestling. It may take 20 attempts, but he should eventually wear out Fiziev and be able to put him flat on his back. And from that point forward, the momentum may completely flip toward the underdog. The smaller UFC Apex cage certainly favors his style, as well.
I expect Fiziev to find his best success early on in this fight. If he can deny the takedowns and essentially keep the fight standing for the first two rounds, he should land the more impactful and damaging strikes and provide superior optics for the judges in what could be a messy, clinch-heavy affair at times.
Fiziev has shown some concerning cardio indicators throughout his career, fading in the third round against Gaethje and Bobby Green. Still, he alleviated some of those concerns with his fifth-round finish over future UFC Hall of Famer Rafael dos Anjos after permitting just two of 16 takedown attempts and spending more than a round (6:13) in control positions.
Fiziev led that fight 39-37 on two scorecards (and was tied 38-38 on the third) entering the fifth round but didn't seem quite as tired late as he was in the third rounds against Gaethje and Green – or even his third-round finish over Brad Riddell. In all three fights, he took noticeably more striking damage.
While Gamrot can push a pace – like a younger version of dos Anjos – he won't damage a hittable Fiziev (48% striking defense) nearly as much as those other, classier strikers. And it seems like Fiziev may tire out quicker from striking damage than counter-grappling for long stretches.
As a result, I'm less confident that Gamrot can force Fiziev to wilt purely with his pace, pressure and constant level changes. Still, I maintain that if or when the momentum swings toward Gamrot – whether it's in the second half, final third, final quarter or final round of this fight – his chances may look increasingly better as the bout progresses toward the final bell based upon the average pace both fighters prefer.
If Fiziev can damage Gamrot's legs early – to limit his movement and take some explosiveness away from his wrestling – that should help his chances later in the fight. However, unless Gamrot is noticeably damaged, I'll look for a live entry at a coinflip price or better on Gamrot after Rounds 2, 3, and 4, when his wrestling should begin to take more effect.
Gamrot's proven highly durable throughout his career. Still, I also don't think he has the stopping power to put away an equally durable Fiziev unless the latter's chin is cracked after several recent wars.
Fiziev vs. Gamrot Pick
I projected Mateusz Gamrot as a +129 underdog (43.7% implied) in this matchup and would want odds of at least +140 (41.7% implied) or better to bet Gamrot pre-fight at a 2% edge. Fiziev should win the first round or two more often than not, and we'll likely find a better price on Gamrot after the middle rounds of the fight.
I expect the fight to reach a decision 56% of the time (-127 implied odds) and would consider betting that prop to -117; however, I would prefer to lay a touch more juice and bet the Over 3.5 Rounds (to -175) or at least the Over 4.5 Rounds, considering the cardio discrepancy and potential for a late-round finish – whether one or both fighters gas out.
Similarly, I show value on Gamrot to win via decision (projected +227, listed +260 at FanDuel), and I'll consider betting that prop pre-fight at +250 or better. However, I would prefer to bet Gamrot to win in Rounds 4, 5, or by Decision (+200 at FanDuel), where it is available, to encapsulate more of his win condition.
Ultimately, the judges may still need to weigh Fiziev's striking damage against Gamrot's pressure wrestling, and even if this does go all 25 minutes – and Gamrot dominates the late rounds – we could still have more controversial scorecards in a UFC main event. As a result, Gamrot by split or majority decision (+900 at DraftKings) and Fiziev by split or majority decision (+1000) aren't terrible dart throws either.
The Picks:
- Fiziev vs. Gamrot Over 3.5 Rounds (-155 at BetRivers)
- Mateusz Gamrot Live after Rounds 2, 3 and 4
