Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 79 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's ESPN+ event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +4.4 units and a +1.7% ROI per bet to date.
This week marks the return of squad members Sean Zerillo, Dann Stup, Tony Sartori and John LanFranca.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which streams on ESPN+ (4 p.m. ET) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Sean Zerillo: Jake Collier by Decision (+420)
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
Since moving up from middleweight, Jake Collier has used the speed and athleticism beneath his 255-pound frame to attempt to outpace more natural heavyweights.
Aside from his 45-second knockout loss to potential future champion Tom Aspinall in his heavyweight debut, Collier has averaged 6.7 strikes landed per minute (a pace of 100.5 per fight) and 15.6 attempts per minute (a pace of 234 per fight) across six additional heavyweight bouts.
Conversely, Muhammad Usman attempted just 41 significant strikes from distance across nine minutes (4.5 attempts per minute) in his TUF 30 Finale win over Zac Pauga before dominating Justin Tafa on the mat and up against the fence (12:03 control time). Usman chipped away from tight positions but didn't land much of note (79 total strikes landed, seven significant).
While Usman may be the more muscular man, Collier is the more highly skilled grappler, and I largely expect Collier to keep this fight standing, rack up volume on the more powerful Usman from range, and control the minute-winning.
Collier has seen his effectiveness wane in the later rounds of his fights. I would give Usman more finishing upside overall; however, if this fight does reach the scorecards, Collier is likelier to lead in significant strikes from a distance in every round.
I projected Collier's decision line at +307; bet that prop to +345.
Dann Stupp: Cody Brundage in Round 1 (+1600)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
In the buildup to UFC Vegas 79 and the prelim fight of Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage, my thoughts and breakdown have remained largely the same: Malkoun (-605) is likely to win this fight, but Brundage is a threat, especially in the first round.
It just seems odd to find Brundage's most likely path to victory – a Round 1 victory – priced so well.
Betfred is offering a market-bet +1600 payoff for Brundage to win in the opening frame, and FanDuel isn't far behind at +1400. I'd take this bet down to +1200.
We know Brundage has struggled in recent bouts and now owns a three-fight skid. But he's little more than a year removed from the back-to-back first-round stoppage victories (over Tresean Gore and Dalcha Lungiambula) under the UFC banner. In fact, five of his eight pro wins have come in the first round.
Granted, Malkoun is the card's biggest favorite for a reason. His relentless wrestling could very well make this a long and frustrating night for Brundage. However, Malkoun has little finishing ability (three decisions in three UFC wins), and we've already seen him defeated quickly in the UFC (to Phil Hawes in 18 seconds).
However with Brundage knowing a pink slip likely awaits if he loses but also having the type of power to stop about anyone in the middleweight division, I'm happy to take a 16-1 flier. Sure, Brundage is going to make a mistake or two if this fight extends, and we could his fortitude wane if things aren't going his way. But I just don't think Malkoun has earned this massive-favorite status – at least yet.
Although I'll also be making a bet on Brundage to win inside the distance (+650), in the spirit of MMA Prop Squad long shot, I'm going to get greedy and officially go for Brundage to win in the first round at +1600.
The Pick: Cody Brundage in Round 1 (+1600 at Betfred)
Tony Sartori: Tim Means by KO (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
I'm targeting a welterweight bout on the UFC Vegas 79 prelims between Tim Means and Andre Fialho.
Both of these fighters have three straight losses, but I am more concerned about Fialho's recent stretch than Means'. And here is why.
Fialho's chin appears to be completely gone. Joaquin Buckley starched him with a head kick, Muslim Salikhov broke him down with a head kick to the point Fialho was not fighting back, and Jake Matthews starched him up high with a combo as well.
In a fight that is most likely to stay standing, how could you not take a flier on Means to win via KO at 5/1?
We know Fialho is highly unlikely to even contemplate a takedown (something he has never successfully done in the UFC), and I would be surprised if Means goes down that path as well (unless he is in trouble) given Fialho's questionable chin and striking defense.
Fialho is the more talented mixed martial artist, which is why he is correctly priced as the favorite. However, that chin and striking defense has looked miserable over the past two years, and an underdog getting a finish is typically the avenue you want to take as the "worse" mixed martial artist is not as likely to go out there and dominate a fight en route to a decision victory versus getting that "surprise" finish.
Perhaps this is where Fialho turns his fortunes around, but given how easily he has been pieced up on the feet over his past three fights, he could be staring down the barrel of his final stretch here in the UFC. If Fialho keeps leaving those hands down, which has been a massive issue, then Means is a capable-enough striker to take advantage.
John LanFranca: Dan Ige by Decision (+450)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Bryce Mitchell opened around -150 in this fight with Dan Ige before being steamed up to a 2-to-1 favorite.
I tend to agree with the oddsmakers' original lining of this bout due to the competition Ige has faced over the course of his career. Ige’s 56% takedown defense is quite misleading as he has taken on some very strong wrestlers. Mosvar Evloev was able to take Ige down nine times back in 2022, but Mitchell does not possess the offensive wrestling skills of Evloev.
Ige still seems to be improving at age 32, disposing of two stiff tests in Nate Landweher and Damon Jackson in 2023 thus far. He was not taken down in either of those fights, and against Mitchell, he will almost assuredly be the one landing the more damaging shots.
As we have seen in recent judging, damage has been scored as a premium over control. That could be the case if Mitchell is able to get Ige to the mat, but not advance position. Ige has never been finished, and Mitchell is very durable in his own right.
I won’t rule out Ige landing a power shot on Mitchell that leads to a TKO, but I still believe his likeliest path to victory is on the judges’ scorecards. Getting +450 on a fighter who opened around +125 to win the fight seems like an incredible value.
In Mitchell’s previous three unanimous decision victories prior to his most recent loss, he didn’t have a single round in which he landed 20 significant strikes. Whenever the fight is standing, Ige will be landing more and clearly be the more dangerous fighter.
It may not take more than a few clean shots each round to sway the judges in outweighing any control time Ige does give up, and I am not even sure that gameplan will be an easy one to execute for Mitchell.
