Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines for UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs. Green on Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which ones are undervalued heading into the ESPN+ event.
UFC Vegas 80 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire 11-bout fight card streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) for the preliminary card and 7 p.m. ET for the main card.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
* Odds as of Monday and via FanDuel
Grant Dawson (-425) vs. Bobby Green (+300)
I understand the matchmaking here from the UFC. Grant Dawson is on an eight-fight unbeaten streak in the incredibly competitive UFC lightweight division, yet he hasn't gotten much traction from the fanbase. Putting him in there with a somewhat well-known fighter like Bobby Green in a main event should serve to raise his profile and potentially build Dawson up into being a draw.
On the other hand, it's not likely to be a competitive fight. Dawson is an elite grappler with five finishes on his current win streak, while Green is 1-2-1 over his last four. The 37-year-old Green is a fun fighter, but pretty clearly past his prime, and both of his last two losses have been finishes.
Dawson's only non-unanimous decision on his record was a majority draw against Ricky Glenn, where two judges gave 10-8 scores for Glenn in the final frame. While those were arguably deserved, the relative scarcity of 10-8 rounds means there's a case Dawson deserved the win there, too.
The line on Dawson has already plummeted since first being released around -330, but I can't in good conscience recommend taking Green. Instead, I'll be looking for inside-the-distance or submission lines on Dawson later in the week. With five rounds to work with, he should be able to put Green away at some point.
Verdict: Grant Dawson Undervalued, But Wait For Props
Bill Algeo (-135) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+114)
Both fighters need a win here to stay above .500 in the UFC with Bill Algeo currently at 4-3 and Alexander Hernandez at 6-5.
Algeo had a somewhat rough start to his UFC career but has won three of his last four, with the only loss a fairly close split decision to Andre Fili. I wouldn't classify it as a bad decision, but it was certainly a fight where an argument could be made for either fighter.
Conversely, Hernandez's only win in his last three fights was a too-close-for-comfort decision victory over nearly 40-year-old Jim Miller in a fight where he was more than a -200 favorite coming in. That's not an encouraging sign for Hernandez, whose UFC wins have been against largely lower level competition save a debut knockout of Beneil Dariush.
While Algeo has fought similarly weaker opposition as well, he's been in far better form in recent fights. It's also somewhat reasonable to dismiss the three quick knockout victories for Hernandez as having an element of luck, and I doubt Algeo will be caught off guard by an opening blitz.
The line seems to be drifting towards Hernandez here, so there's no need to rush to get Algeo bets in. However, I'll be looking his way later in the week, especially if the line travels any farther.
Verdict: Bill Algeo Undervalued
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-162) vs. Diana Belbita (+136)
It's easy to look at the three-fight winning streak from Kowalkiewicz and see why she's the betting favorite here. Of course, there's some major context that needs to be added to those wins.
Working backward chronologically, her most recent win was over Vanessa Demopolous, a one-dimensional grappler and 9-5 pro fighter. Prior to that was Silvana Gomez Juarez, who is 1-3 in the UFC and was 38 when she fought Kowalkiewicz. Finally, we have her rematch with Felice Herrig – who hadn't won an MMA fight in nearly five years when she lost to Kowalkiewicz (and still hasn't).
Prior to that, Kowalkiewicz had lost five straight, and seven of her last nine. Additionally, she's 2-0 in split decisions in her UFC career, so there's some regression due there as well.
On the other side, Belbita is a fairly low-level UFC fighter, with a 2-3 record in the promotion. Still just 27, she has shown signs of improvement in recent fights, with solid victories in two of her last three.
This line might make sense if these women were the same age and trending in the same direction. However, Belbita is more than a decade younger than Kowalkiewicz, whose best days are fairly clearly behind her. Take the underdog – and quickly, because this line has moved even since I started writing this section.
Verdict: Karolina Kowalkiewicz Overvalued
Montel Jackson (-180) vs. Chris Gutierrez (+150)
(Editor's note: This fight was canceled early on fight week.)
I can't believe this fight is buried on the prelims of a low-level Fight Night card. Both Jackson and Gutierrez are 7-2 in the UFC, with three finishes each and exciting fighting styles.
After dropping his debut, Chris "El Guapo" Gutierrez rattled off a 7-0-1 streak in the Octagon, culminating with a spinning-back elbow knockout of Danaa Batgerel and a knockout of Frankie Edgar in Edgar's retirement fight. That streak was halted by a close decision loss to Pedro Munhoz, but Gutierrez acquitted himself well against the top-10-ranked Munhoz.
Jackson has followed a similar arc, going 7-1 since dropping his Octagon debut. None of his fights have been split or majority decisions, and he's made it to the scorecards in each of his losses.
Gutierrez is 2-0 in split decisions, but that's roughly balanced out by a slightly tougher level of competition in recent fights — particularly his loss to Munhoz. I'm not confident in either fighter getting the win here, but this line should be closer than it is currently. I wouldn't have a problem with betting Gutierrez now, but the line seems to be holding mostly firm, so I'll take my time to do some further tape study. Still, this should be closer than it is.
Verdict: Chris Gutierrez Undervalued
Johnny Munoz (-110) vs. Aori Qileng (-110)
These prelim fighters have remarkably similar UFC careers so far – which explains the pick'em price on their moneylines. Both are 2-3 in the promotion, and each has one knockout loss in just over a minute to go with two unanimous decision losses. Furthermore, they each have one finish and one decision among their two wins.
The biggest thing I noticed when looking through their records and watching back some fights is Qileng's decision win over Jay Perrin. While it was a unanimous 29-28 victory on all scorecards, the wrong fighter was awarded the win. Perrin landed a takedown in every round and he out-struck Aoriqileng in two of the three. Even with the recent discount to takedowns and control time on the scorecards, Perrin should have won at least two rounds.
Similarly, Munoz landed takedowns in two of three rounds in his debut against Nate Maness while landing more significant strikes in every round. That fight could've easily gone his way, despite the unanimous decision loss. He also has "better losses" if such a thing exists, as I'm extremely high on Daniel Santos, his most recent opponent.
This line likely looks drastically different if Munoz is 3-2 and Qileng is 1-4 coming in, and there's a strong case that they should be. The best line on Munoz is the -110 offered by Caesars which can be paired with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for bonus bets.
