Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 80 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's ESPN+ event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +23.4 units and a +9.2% ROI per bet lifetime.
This week marks the return of squad members Dan Tom, Tony Sartori and Billy Ward.
Check out their UFC Vegas 80 props for Saturday's 11-bout fight card, which streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. ET), below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Dan Tom: Bill Algeo in Round 2 (+950), Round 3 (+1600)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target some potent rounds in the main-card opener between Bill Algeo and Alexander Hernandez.
When it comes to figuring out which rounds to take fliers on, I traditionally like to suss out matchups between a fighter with a suspect gas tank versus someone durable with a slow burn to their style.
Although Hernandez is a solid athlete who trains at elevation, the 31-year-old appears to struggle when he can't sustain himself as the proverbial hammer.
Because of this, all of Hernandez's stoppage losses have come past the first round.
Factor that in with Algeo's insane durability and gameness, and I suspect that "Senor Perfecto" is primed to have some strong late-round rounds this Saturday.
I initially aimed to play Algeo in the third frame, but after seeing that all of Hernandez's stoppage losses come in the second (a round in which Algeo owns the majority of his stoppage wins), I decided to split my bet this week between both given the excellent odds.
The Pick: Bill Algeo in Round 2 (+950) | Algeo in Round 3 (+1600)
Tony Sartori: Ricky Glenn by Decision (+800)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
I'm targeting a lightweight bout on the main card between Drew Dober and Ricky Glenn for this week's MMA Prop Squad pick.
This number is just far too wide in my opinion as Dober has not shown enough recently to justify laying five dollars against any competent fighter. He has gotten a lot of love from UFC fans (me included) for the way he fights; he will go in the pocket and just let it fly while taking a lot of punishment as he boasts an iron chin.
With this wild style, he has gotten some good knockout wins over the likes of Bobby Green, Rafael Alves and Terrance McKinney. However, none of those guys is a world-beater, and he has also lost just as many fights over that stretch with defeats to Islam Makhachev, Brad Riddell and Matt Frevola.
Frevola became the first guy to actually finish Dober via TKO in over a decade, and I don't think Glenn has that type of power in him. But if Glenn is able to pull off the upset, swaying the judges is the most likely outcome in my opinion.
When Riddell beat Dober, he relied on his takedown game to rack up points and get Dober out of his comfort zone, which is what I believe Glenn will attempt to do as well. We know this part of Glenn's game is possible, given his dominating win over Gavin Tucker when he landed four of seven takedowns and accumulated just south of eight minutes of control time.
He has a wrestling base and is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so I don't see why he would enter Dober's world of stand-and-bang fighting. If Glenn lands takedowns, he will give the judges to think about even if he's getting outworked on the feet.
Glenn's chin should also be able to survive the damage given that he has only been knocked out once professionally – though that occurred in his latest fight when he lost to Christos Giagos.
This is a guy who took Grant Dawson to a decision-draw, and if he avoids Dober's power and brings this fight to the mat, then Glenn is certainly live in this fight. I am playing both his decision prop and his moneyline, both at Circa. For those who are in a state where that sportsbook does not operate, I would also take his ML at the same price at FanDuel and his decision prop at anything over +800, which is available pretty much everywhere else.
Billy Ward: Joe Pyfer by Submission (+600)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
“Be Joe Pyfer” has become the unofficial rallying cry of the Dana White Contender Series following his gutsy second-round knockout victory last season. Pyfer was making his second attempt to break into the promotion following an injury loss in his first appearance on the show.
It’s been pretty good being Joe Pyfer since, with a pair of first-round knockout wins in the UFC proper and a new home training at Renzo Gracie Philly. Pyfer is known as a knockout artist, but the gym is full of high-level submission artists, including Jeremiah Wells, Sean Brady, Andre Petroski and Pat Sabatini.
Pyfer also competes in grappling events, picking up wins over UFC vets Gerald Meerschaert and Eryk Anders on Fury Pro shows. That shows a commitment to the ground game that the market might not be attuned to yet.
The ground game might be the easiest path to victory for Pyfer against Abdul Razak Alhassan, who’s been taken down a whopping 17 times across his last four losses. “Judo Thunder” has solid power in his own right, but is a poor wrestler by UFC standards.
While he’s managed to avoid submissions in those fights, they were all either at welterweight or against an opponent (Joaquin Buckley) who’s since dropped a weight class. This one is at middleweight, with Pyfer fairly big for the division.
Pyfer could take the easy route by bringing this one to the mat. We also get the added benefit of a possible “club and sub” scenario, where Pyfer hurts Alhassan on the feet but then locks up a choke. That’s enough outs for me at +600 odds, with the best line on FanDuel.
