Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines for UFC Vegas 81: Yusuff vs. Barboza tonight and see which fighters are overvalued and which ones are undervalued heading into the ESPN+ event.
UFC Vegas 81 takes place Saturday afternoon at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The full 11-bout lineup streams on ESPN+. The event kicks off with the six-bout preliminary card at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) and the five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
* Odds as of Monday and via FanDuel
Sodiq Yusuff (-178) vs. Edson Barboza (+138)
A series of injuries have kept Sodiq Yusuff out of action for a bit more than a year, but prior to that, he was one of the brighter prospects in the featherweight division. After securing a spot in the UFC with a win on the Contender Series, he went 6-1 in the UFC octagon with the only loss coming to top-five featherweight Arnold Allen.
Edson Barboza is in his 14th year with the promotion, occasionally pushing into the rankings but never reaching top-contender status. He's 17-11 in his UFC tenure with a 2-2 record in split or majority decisions. However, the two wins were more than a decade ago while the two split-decision losses were in consecutive fights in 2019 and 2020.
Still, it's unlikely that those carry much weight given the five appearances Barboza's made since then.
Outside of the Allen fight, Yusuff's level of opponent has been consistently lower than Barboza's – but Barboza has consistently lost when stepping up against ranked or high-level opposition in recent years. That works out to roughly a wash in my book as it's hard to give too much credit for losing to top fighters.
All in all, there's nothing particularly "lucky" about either man's record. I could see a case for Barboza being undervalued due to the injuries as well as the time off from Yusuff, but that alone isn't enough to push me to an early bet.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Jennifer Maia (-162) vs. Viviane Araujo (+126)
The resumes for these top-10 flyweights are remarkably similar. Both have one stoppage win in the UFC, no stoppage losses, and a .500 record in fights that make it to the judges. Neither has a split decision on her UFC record.
However, Viviane Araujo was by far the more prolific finisher prior to their UFC debuts, joining the promotion with a 6-1 record comprised entirely of wins inside the distance.
Jennifer Maia finished just over half of her pre-UFC bouts, and none for mid-major promotion Invicta FC.
That's point No. 1 for Araujo. She's also the more voluminous striker and takedown artist, both of which should look good to the judges in a fight highly likely to involve their services.
The broader point though is that these two women are far too similar for this broad of a betting line. Early opening books have already begun to shift this closer to a pick'em, with DraftKings cutting Araujo's odds from +124 to +110. She's still +126 on FanDuel but won't be for long, so we'll pounce on that opportunity while it's still there – while looking for arbitrage opportunities on Maia if the line moves enough.
Verdict: Viviane Araujo Undervalued
Michel Pereira (-150) vs. Andre Petroski (+125)
It was the four-pound weight miss by Michel Pereira for his scheduled bout against Stephen Thompson in July that kicked off the debate about fighter pay when fighters refuse to fight an overweight opponent.
It also sent Pereira back to the middleweight division – his primary home before signing with the UFC. Pereira was massive for the welterweight division, and that was his second weight miss, so the move certainly makes sense.
This time, he was supposed to fight Marc-Andre Barriault, but the French-Canadian withdrew due to an injury. Instead, he gets the 10-1 Andre Petroski, who's 5-0 in the UFC proper after competing on Season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter.
I'm quick to forgive poor performances in the strange environment of the TUF house. Fighters fight much more frequently than they normally would, making weight cuts a big issue. They're also separated from their normal teams and coaching staff, which throws off their preparation significantly.
Petroski is still being undervalued by the market due to his loss to Bryan Battle on the show – despite Battle's 5-1 UFC record.
Both men are coming off split-decision wins, the first split decisions either had been in during his career. While it's short notice for Petroski, he likely has a size and strength edge on Pereira, who hasn't had a ton of time to put on extra muscle since his attempted cut to 170 just over two months ago.
Here, I like Petroski, who should also have a big grappling edge. PointsBet has opened up odds first for this fight, with Petroski as a +125 underdog. I'd take that if needed, but I would prefer to wait until other books open up to see if we can get a better price.
Verdict: Andre Petroski Undervalued
Edgar Chairez (-330) vs. Daniel Lacerda (+240)
(Editor's note: UFC officials canceled this fight on Friday due to a medical issue for Lacerda.)
This is an interesting one as these two flyweights originally fought on the UFC Noche fight card. The bout was a no-contest due to the referee incorrectly deciding Daniel Lacerda was unconscious while he was fending off a (not very threatening) submission attempt.
Lacerda's record justifies the line. He is 0-4 in the UFC with four stoppage losses. Edgar Chairez has just one (official) UFC bout, in which he was sacrificed to Japanese phenom Tatsuro Taira. There's no shame in that loss – though it doesn't give us any evidence that Chairez is UFC caliber, either.
What's notable here is that Chairez closed between -220 and -240 for the first booking of this fight. The market seems to be reacting as if he was about to win the fight, with only a premature stoppage from referee Chris Tognoni preventing that. However, that's not really what happened.
While the former fight was standing, it was fairly close with Lacerda landing some leg kicks but primarily controlling the range from the outside. Lacerda was the one to initiate the grappling, though, landing a takedown about halfway through the round. He was in on another takedown that he likely would've finished but for the guillotine attempt by Cahirez that Tognoni thought submitted Lacerda.
Regardless, Lacerda certainly didn't look like a +240 (or longer) underdog in that fight, so it's puzzling that he's lined as one now. The best line on Lacerda is +260 at Caesars, which I'll gladly be taking.
