Check out our UFC Vegas 81 best bets for the Saturday event at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, which streams on ESPN+.
UFC Vegas 81 features 11 fights in all, including a featherweight main event of Sodiq Yusuff vs Edson Barboza. The event kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with main-card action starting at 7 p.m. ET.
So where should be looking to place your UFC Vegas 81 bets tonight? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on the Yusuff vs Barboza fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
(Make your UFC Vegas 81 bets with the latest BetMGM bonus code!)
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Irina Alekseeva vs Melissa Dixon
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET
Under the current UFC model, less-proven fighters rarely make their way onto the main roster without "earning" a contract on the Contender Series feeder shows. Still, both fighters in this matchup are exceptions to the pathway that has become the UFC's preferred pipeline for cheap talent.
Alekseeva, a 33-year-old Russian with six professional bouts, scored a first-round win via kneebar over UFC veteran Stephanie Egger as a +280 underdog in April. She missed weight, however – coming in four pounds over the bantamweight limit – but tipped the scales at 135 pounds on Friday for UFC Vegas 81 on Saturday.
Nicknamed "Russian Rousey," Alekseeva does her best work on the mat; she's an opportunistic submission grappler with solid ground and pound if she can put opponents flat on their backs.
Still, Dixon, a 32-year-old undefeated Brit with nearly double the experience when including her amateur career, may be the better overall grappler in the matchup. She prefers to rack up control time against opponents – both on the mat and up against the fence – and will look to pace Alekseeva while mixing her striking and grappling.
The bout is close to a pick'em to reach a decision – below the divisional average of 60% (-150 implied odds). However, I view Dixon as the superior minute-winner, and a more extended fight should favor her chances. Her game is more coherent and less reliant on securing a finish.
And I expect Dixon to win this fight more than 60% of the time (projected -161); bet her moneyline up to -150 or include it in a parlay. Consider using Dixon's decision prop (projected +149, listed +215 at BetRivers) as a round-robin leg too.
The Pick: Melissa Dixon (-140 at BetMGM)
Billy Ward: Cameron Saaiman vs Christian Rodriguez
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
This is a bit of a surprising booking for UFC Vegas 81 between two of the brighter young prospects in the bantamweight division (and UFC as a whole).
Undefeated Cameron Saaiman is 9-0 at just 22, and he's taking on 9-1 Christian Rodriguez, who’s just 25.
Having these two meet at this point in their careers is already surprising, but to bury it on a low-level Fight Night event as the main-card opener is even more interesting. Rodriguez is coming off of a win over another young prospect in Raul Rosas Jr., and this booking makes it seem like the UFC doesn’t especially want to be in the Christian Rodriguez business.
South Africa's Saaiman is a former national kickboxing champ in his native country, and he trains with once and hopefully future No. 1 middleweight contender Dricus Du Plessis. He’s shown massive improvement in his last few fights, cleaning up issues in takedown defense and fight IQ that nearly cost him his undefeated record.
In his last fight, he showed greatly improved grappling on the mat as well, threatening his opponent with submissions from the bottom before working his way back to his feet. That will be a crucial skill against Rodriguez, who probably needs to pick up some takedowns and top control to win this one.
While Rodriguez is a more than capable striker, he doesn’t have the credentials in that area that Saaiman brings. Nor does he have the power. Saaiman has two knockdowns through four UFC fights to none for Rodriguez.
Ultimately, this is a bet on the 22-year-old Saaiman continuing to improve his grappling – both takedown defense and what happens when he is taken down. I’m expecting him to continue to improve – plus get the benefit of the doubt from the judges even if he spends some time on his back. I’d take his moneyline down to +120.
The Pick: Cameron Saaiman (+140 at DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Andre Petroski vs Michel Pereira
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
On Saturday's UFC Vegas 81 main card, we get a middleweight bout between Andre Petroski and Michel Pereira.
Both fighters enter this weekend in great form with Petroski still boasting a zero in the loss column since joining the UFC while Pereira has won his past five fights. Both guys are tremendous mixed martial artists who can handle themselves in every aspect of the fight – whether it's standing, in the clinch or on the mat.
With that said, whenever you are catching the better wrestler as an underdog in a fight in which both guys are good in every facet of the sport, it's worth a serious look. The reason I say this is because, especially in this matchup, the clearest path to victory for either fighter is Petroski's wrestling.
If the fight stays on the feet, both guys are going to land at an efficient rate, and both carry knockout power, though Pereira will possess the advantage here. If there are grappling exchanges both in the clinch and on the mat, both fighters' jiu-jitsu can lead to a submission victory.
However, if we get to a full-on wrestling match on the mat, that is the one area where Petroski is going to dominate. Given that extra avenue to victory in an otherwise relatively even fight, I really like Petroski in this spot at +175 at bet365 as of this writing.
Petroski won as a bigger underdog against Nick Maximov with a submission victory in the first round. Meanwhile, many of you may remember Pereira's massive upset loss to Tristan Connelly.
In that fight, Connelly utilized control time to get the decision nod against a Pereira who lost his gas tank as the fight progressed. Granted, Pereira is a better (and presumably smarter) fighter than he was back then, but if we get to the later rounds here and Petroski is holding top position, Pereira is going to be in a lot of trouble.
The Pick: Andre Petroski (+175 at bet365)
Dann Stupp: Jennifer Maia vs Viviane Araujo
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Well, for my UFC Vegas 81 best bet, I kinda feel like a procrastinator who copied off the smart kid's homework.
I got a late start in studying up for Saturday's event, but it gave me an opportunity to see whom the fight nerds and fellow MMA bettors like this week. That ultimately led me to my longtime colleague and friend Dan Tom.
Quite simply, Dan nailed the Jennifer Maia vs. Viviane Araujo breakdown when he wrote it up for Action Network earlier this week. I don't think I could do it any better, so be sure to read his breakdown, where he makes a case that Maia's durability edge will likely be the deciding factor in this matchup.
As Dan wrote – and as I've long espoused – women's MMA fights are often ripe for underdog plays. With the majority of women's fights going the distance – and with judging as unpredictable as ever in this sport – moderate and even massive underdogs often have value because judges screw it up so often.
But in the case of Saturday's UFC Vegas 81 co-main event, I think the value is clearly on the favorite Maia. As of this writing, Maia is available at market-best odds of -155 (60.1% implied win probability) at Caesars. Sure, the "payoff" isn't spectacular (a winning $100 bet would net you $66.67 in profit), but the "value" is still there.
Considering I predict Maia to win this fight 75% of the time (-233) – largely because of her ability to win rounds convincingly – we're getting a heck of a deal with those -155 odds. There's the value. And if you continue to make value bets, you're going to come out ahead in the long run.
I'm comfortable playing Maia down to -185 (65%), which still leaves a healthy edge based on our own odds. And honestly? With Araujo's durability and chin issues, I'm also going to sprinkle on Maia to win by KO at super-juicy and widely available +1600 odds (which is also my colleague Tony Sartori's MMA Prop Squad pick this week).
The Pick: Jennifer Maia (-155 at Caesars)
