Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 81 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's ESPN+ event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +27.4 units and a +10.6% ROI per bet through nearly a year and a half of MMA betting action.
This week marks the return of squad members Clint MacLean, Bryan Fonseca, Dan Tom and Tony Sartori.
Below, check out their picks for Saturday's event, which kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
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Clint MacLean: Emily Ducote by KO (+470)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:55 p.m. ET
Emily Ducote started off hot in the UFC with a brutalizing decision win over Jessica Penne.
If you recall that fight, Ducote had Penne compromised and nearly TKO'd her with leg kicks early in the very first round. But she eased off and allowed Penne to survive so that she could win her UFC debut and avoid potential danger or damage.
Prior to Ducote making it to the UFC, three of her previous four had ended via stoppage.
Ashley Yoder might have never been finished in her professional MMA career, but she has been showing signs of damage adding up recently. The fights against Angela Hill and Randa Markos especially showed that Yoder is not reacting well to strikes, and she had to force grappling exchanges to survive.
Ducote has solid takedown defense, and her long skinny legs combined with her slow hand speed, I believe, will allow Ducote to do exactly what she did against Penne – except this time she gets the finish. I'll take her to win by KO with juicy +470 odds.
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Bryan Fonseca: Brendon Marotte (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
Terrance McKinney was scheduled to fight Chris Duncan, who withdrew due to visa issues prior to the event. Duncan's been replaced by Brendon Marotte, who has an 8-1 record and is making his UFC debut on short notice.
McKinney, at 14-6, has never fought to a decision in 20 career MMA fights – the last seven of which have been in the UFC, where he's 4-3. Six of his 14 wins have arrived by KO and eight by submission. He's also been knocked out four times and tapped out twice.
So why do I like Marotte, an unknown, to beat him?
Marotte, 26, brings a three-fight winning streak against the 29-year-old McKinney, as well as a pair of heavy hands. The New Hampshire native has five career knockouts in his eight wins, one submission, and a pair of decision victories, having actually gone to distance, unlike McKinney.
His lone decision loss came in 2019 against Aaron Pico at Bellator 277 via TKO as a short-notice fill-in for Jeremy Kennedy.
Marotte is clearly the inferior fighter, but I'll take a sprinkle on a heavy underdog with legitimate finishing ability against a guy, in McKinney, who has four KO losses – including ones to non-descript fighters. It's not a prop play, but with these long odds, this moneyline play feels appropriate for MMA Prop Squad.
The Pick: Brendon Marotte (+500 at PointsBet)
Dan Tom: Christian Rodriguez by Submission (+475)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a potential finishing method in the main-card opener between Christian Rodriguez and Cameron Saaiman.
When it comes to sniffing out submission props, I tend to pull the trigger a bit more confidently when the action is taking place in the smaller octagon of they use at the UFC Apex facility, which host tonight's event.
Not only do the strikers have less space to run, but the limited fighting surface naturally encourages more closed-quarter combat and finishes alike.
Add in a wild fighter like Saaiman who has a knack for putting himself in precarious positions, and I can't help but take a stab at the savvy submission skills of Rodriguez this Saturday.
Rodriguez may have tipped the scales a little heavy on Friday, but that hasn't stopped the Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt from out-grappling and undefeated prospect before.
Give me Rodriguez via submission, which is +475 at BetRivers as of Saturday morning.
The Pick: Christian Rodriguez by Submission (+475 at BetRivers)
Tony Sartori: Jennifer Maia by KO (+1600)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
In the co-main event on Saturday's UFC Vegas 81 fight card, Jennifer Maia takes on Viviane Araujo in a flyweight bout.
Maia, the No. 9-ranked contender in the UFC women's 125-pound division, prefers to stay on the feet at this stage of her career. She has landed just one takedown over her past five fights and is 3-2 over that span with all five bouts going the distance.
The most likely path to victory for Maia in this fight is to utilize her striking abilities to rack up points and rely on the judges to help get her hand raised against Araujo. While I think that is how this fight will go, I don't agree that she only wins via KO/TKO a mere 5.9% of the time in this matchup, which is what her +1600 odds in this market imply.
Stylistically, this fight will likely spend much more time on the feet than it will on the mat. Araujo may shoot for takedowns, but she is just six for 18 when doing so over her past four bouts (with just one win over that stretch).
On the other hand, Maia has been taken down just three times on nine attempts over her past four fights. When this scrap stays on the feet, Maia will have to push forward more and get closer in the pocket considering her four-inch reach disadvantage.
If she brings the striking in closer rather than staying at distance, more damage is going to be done in each direction, which increases the likelihood of a finish. Both Maia and Araujo are good strikers and know how to avoid the most damaging shots, but it's not inconceivable that Maia gets the job done inside the distance.
Two of Maia's past 12 wins have come via KO/TKO while Araujo has been knocked out once over her five career professional losses. I expect to see some close-quarters action from Maia given her reach disadvantage, and at 16/1, there are worse fliers to take than her landing a clean shot while in the pocket.
The Pick: Jennifer Maia by KO (+1600 in DraftKings)
