Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds
| Brady Odds | -120 |
| Gastelum Odds | +102 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-136 / +108) |
| Venue | Moody Center in Austin, Texas |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Saturday evening and via FanDuel. Maximize your UFC Austin betting action with our FanDuel promo code. | |
UFC Austin on Saturday is pretty stacked by "Fight Night" standards. For evidence, we have welterweights Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum with fourth billing on the ESPN-televised main card.
Brady is a top-10 welterweight who's looking to rebound from his first loss while Gastelum is a former TUF winner and middleweight title challenger making his return to 170 pounds.
And that makes this quite the fight for the first half of the main card as both men are a win or two away from the title picture.
Will Brady be able to bounce back from his first loss, or will Gastelum reinsert himself into the welterweight rankings?
Here's a look at the Brady vs. Gastelum odds and prediction for UFC Austin tonight.
Tale of the Tape
| Brady | Gastelum | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-1 | 18-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:30 | 13:38 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 170 pounds | 170 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/23/1992 | 10/24/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Minute | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Minute | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 30% |
| TD Def | 87% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.1 |
Despite Gastelum being just 32, this feels like the start of a third career for him.
After winning TUF 17 at 185 pounds, he returned to his pre-UFC weight class of 170 pounds in the promotion proper, going 4-1 with the loss being a split decision to future champion Tyron Woodley.
Plus there were his other losses to the scales; Gastelum had a pair of bad weight misses, and he was "asked" to move to middleweight.
He again found success at 185, challenging Israel Adesanya for the vacant title. He fought Adesanya to a close decision – and that's when the wheels fell off.
Since then, Gastelum is 2-4. Now, he's attempting to prove he can make 170 pounds rather than face massive length and strength disadvantages at middleweight.
At his best, Gastelum is one of the best pure boxers in the UFC. Fighting primarily as a southpaw, he has a piercing jab that he launches from awkward angles, solid head movement, and quick feet.
He's generally more than willing to stand in the pocket and trade with his granite chin and no career knockout losses.
#OnThisDay in 2017, Kelvin Gastelum showed us some serious power 👊
Catch @KelvinGastelum back in action next Saturday at #UFCAustin! pic.twitter.com/fEY4jupuQe
— UFC (@ufc) November 25, 2023
Gastelum generally has solid but not overwhelming power with finishes coming from volume rather than one massive strike. He chains punches together, throwing combinations before darting back out of his opponent's range.
That's led to problems against taller fighters, who've been able to land counters when Gastulum doesn't retreat far enough.
He also mixed in solid wrestling early on, primarily at welterweight. It's hard to say if Gastulum's change in approach was due to increasing confidence in his boxing or the inherent difficulty in grappling bigger opponents. Likely a mix of both – though neither case would lead to him proactively grappling here.
That's because Sean Brady is both an elite grappler and likely the stronger fighter.
The Daniel Gracie black belt is one of the strongest welterweights in the sport, and he should enjoy a fairly clear edge in overall athleticism over Gastelum.
He's also one of the best pure grapplers. Brady beat ADCC runner-up Craig Jones in a grappling competition, and he has two submissions in six UFC bouts.
PHILLY TOUGH.
🔔 @SeanBradyMMA locks in the RD 3 sub!
[ LIVE on @UFCFightPass, ESPN2, #ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/vF2Eq8M1nO
— UFC (@ufc) March 6, 2021
Like his Renzo Gracie Philly teammates, he mixes in solid takedowns with his technical jiu-jitsu, taking down every opponent except Belal Muhammad.
Brady's standup remains a work in progress. His power and athleticism are obvious, but he has a fairly vanilla approach of straight punches, leg kicks and the occasional haymaker. In his TKO loss to Muhammad, I was struck by how tense Brady seemed on the feet; even when landing strikes, he was braced for impact from Muhammad.
That, predictably, led to Brady being overwhelmed with strikes late in the second round by the smoother Muhammad.
To be fair to Brady, he never went down, and it was probably an early stoppage, but he'll find much more success if he can loosen up a bit in the striking exchanges.
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the UFC Austin action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
Brady vs. Gastelum Pick
Gastelum's footwork, angles and overall smoothness should give him a considerable edge on the feet here. I expect him to have no trouble landing his usual mix of jabs and lead hooks – as long as this one remains standing.
Unfortunately for Gastelum, I don't think it does for long. Brady has excellent takedowns, and he should be able to physically dominate Gastelum in close quarters.
As just a slight favorite, I'm more than happy to take Brady's moneyline at around -120. However, we can do better.
While this is a binary fight from a striker/grappler perspective, it's also fairly split in terms of early and late. Brady is clearly uncomfortable striking for extended periods, and he will eventually wear out from chasing Gastelum around the ring.
Therefore, my favorite way to bet this one is Brady's moneyline while looking to bet Gastelum live.
If you don't have the chance for a live bet, I'd pair Brady in Rounds 1 or 2 at +280 on FanDuel (under the "Alt. Round Betting" menu) with Gastelum in Round 3 or by decision at +220.
I trust Brady's chin enough that an early stoppage for Gastelum feels unlikely here, so this pairing should cover most possible outcomes in this fight.
The Picks: Brady in Round 1 or 2 (+280 at FanDuel) | Gastelum in Round 3 or Decision (+220 at FanDuel)
