Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 82 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's ESPN+ event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of UFC props from our squad of prop betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +21.1 units and a +7.6% ROI per bet to date.
Today for UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs. Craig, we have prop predictions from squad members Dan Tom, Clint MacLean, Billy Ward and Tony Sartori.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which kicks off at 2 p.m. ET (11 a.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Dan Tom: Joanderson Brito in Round 1 (+420)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET
For this week's Prop Squad pick, I decided to target a round prop with some potential in the preliminary-card bout between Jonathan Pearce (-138) and Joanderson Brito (+108).
Although the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex slightly favors the sticky grappling style of Pearce on paper, I believe that this fight is closely lined for a reason.
I also can't help but notice the decent number attached to Brito's biggest winning conditions – which is chaos within the first round.
Not only are both fighters fast starters, but 10 of Brito's 13 stoppage victories have come within the first frame of the fight.
Add in the fact that all three of Pearce's losses have come in the first round, and I feel obliged to fire on a Brazilian like Brito, whom you don't have to worry about going for it.
The Pick: Joanderson Brito in Round 1 (+420)
Clint MacLean: Luana Pinheiro by KO (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
Amanda Ribas is moving back down to 115 pounds after a brutal KO finish at the hands of Macy Barber.
Prior to that move up to 125 pounds, Ribas cited the tough cut to 115 as being part of her durability issue, but the extra weight didn't seem to help.
Ribas has been KO'd three times as a professional MMA fighter and has been rocked far more than that. While she is exceptionally skilled, her chin issue seems to be Ribas' Achilles' heel.
Luana Pinheiro is a streaking young fighter who built her career off of being explosive and physical. Most of her wins are by submission, but we have seen her recent focus has been on her striking – and she does hit hard!
This is basically a system play for me. I'll look for Luana to pick up right where Barber left off.
The Pick: Luana Pinheiro by KO (+500)
Billy Ward: Luana Pinheiro vs. Amanda Ribas Ends by Split Decision (+450)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
Both women on the UFC Vegas 81 main card have somewhat controversial split decision results recently. For Amanda Ribas, it was a loss to Katlyn Chookagian that many people had scored the other way. For Luana Pinheiro, it was her win over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in April that she might not have deserved.
My initial thought was this was mostly just luck, which should even out in the long run. However, I watched both fights as part of the research for my breakdown on this one, which led me to change my opinion.
Ribas tends to react extremely poorly to getting hit, even in fights that she eventually wins. What appear to be relatively harmless strikes draw big reactions, which play poorly to the judges. In addition, her grappling-heavy style isn’t rewarded the way it once was, which creates a double-whammy of poor optics for the judges.
On the other hand, Pinheiro throws everything with bad intentions, loading up on wild shots on the feet. Even when those don’t land cleanly, they appear bigger than they are in the moment.
Additionally, both women are judo black belts, but Ribas prefers less impactful trips and hip throws while Pinheiro loads up for big shoulder and head throws, which could also sway the judges to her favor.
Or maybe they won’t since Ribas should have the cleaner technique, pick up more control time, and land more total strikes than Pinheiro in this fight.
Either way, both fighters leave a lot up to interpretation since it’s entirely possible to prefer the control time and accurate striking of Ribas over the brawling style and big throws from Pinheiro – or the other way around.
The Pick: Luana Pinheiro vs. Amanda Ribas Ends by Split/Majority Decision (+450 at DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Jordan Leavitt by Decision (+410 at BetRivers)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
On Saturday's UFC Vegas 82 main card, Chase Hooper takes on Jordan Leavitt in a lightweight bout.
We are likely to see a full arsenal of mixed martial arts in this scrap. Both guys can strike, wrestle and are capable of locking in submissions.
This bout can go in practically any direction, though I would argue that if you want to take a shot on the underdog, then doing so with the judges' help is the most likely outcome. Yes, Leavitt just knocked out Victor Martinez in his latest bout, but that was just his second career TKO victory (the other came from a slam).
On the other hand, Hooper has been caught just once in his professional career. When this fight is on the mat, Leavitt should have the wrestling advantage while Hooper will be more dangerous in the submission department.
Given that Leavitt is giving up four inches in height and three inches in reach, it would be wise for his corner to implore him to close that distance and look for those takedowns. If that is indeed the game plan, then an advantage in the wrestling department bodes well for taking someone by decision, given that he could just accumulate control time.
While Trey Ogden was the one to bring the fight to the mat against Leavitt in their 2022 bout, Leavitt was still able to accumulate north of five minutes of control time en route to his decision victory. Meanwhile, two of Hooper's three losses in the UFC have come via decision.
Additionally, Hooper has never been submitted in his career. If Hooper can avoid submissions but Leavitt is still able to garner control time on the mat, then we could definitely see the underdog get his hand raised after three hard-fought rounds.
The Pick: Jordan Leavitt by Decision (+410 at BetRivers)
