Anthony Smith vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Odds
The UFC Vegas 83 co-headliner on Saturday features an impromptu meeting at 205 pounds between Anthony Smith and Khalil Rountree Jr.
With this card originally scheduled to go down in Shanghai, Saturday's lineup has experienced some changes, to say the least.
Originally slated to face Azamat Murzakanov last week at UFC Austin, Rountree will now meet Smith on roughly two weeks' notice in tonight's ESPN+ co-main event.
Smith hasn't been seen since his second win over Ryan Spann in August of this year, but the 55-fight veteran is no stranger when it comes to stepping in on short notice.
Here's a look at the Smith vs. Rountree odds and my prediction for tonight's UFC Vegas 83 co-headliner.
Tale of the Tape
| Smith | Rountree | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 37-18 | 13-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:55 | 7:37 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'1" |
| Weight | 205.5 pounds | 204 pounds |
| Reach | 76 inches | 76 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 7/26/1988 | 2/26/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.52 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 0% |
| TD Def | 48% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Considering that Rountree was originally slated to face a stout southpaw striker in Murzakanov, "The War Horse" will likely have to adjust his gameplan against a fighter like Smith.
A relatively tall competitor for 205 pounds, Smith primarily fights from the orthodox position and, speaking from a muay Thai parlance, will utilize all eight of his proverbial limbs.
Whether Smith is changing up the levels of his kicks at a distance or looking to land elbows and knees in the clinch, "Lionheart" can be effective from multiple ranges.
That said, Smith is not exactly a defensive savant and will need to be mindful when coming forward opposite someone like Rountree.
A fellow muay Thai enthusiast, Rountree is a savvy southpaw who employs the weapons that someone who operates in his stance should never leave home without. From hard left kicks and crosses to sneaky check hooks off the counter, Rountree can be effective both coming forward and moving backward.
Rountree also possesses some dangerous and dynamic offerings in closed quarters, but the grappling pitfalls of his past fights often make those scenarios feel like tightrope walks.
Considering the opportunistic nature of Smith's submission game, Rountree will undoubtedly need to be on his best behavior when it comes to his counter-grappling choices.
Smith may not be a lights-out wrestler when it comes to his offensive takedowns, but the 35-year-old vet has shown to be more than capable of working to positive positions from negative ones.
I’ll finish this short thread with one of my favorite half-guard sweeps in recent memory being hit: Anthony Smith shows why cross-wrist control is also useful from the bottom, as he hits this sweet reversal on Andrew Sanchez. pic.twitter.com/59bhmVjRvF
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 30, 2020
Smith vs. Rountree Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Rountree -210 and Smith +168 as of this writing.
On a card full of volatile fights, this one might be the hardest of all to call.
Although I don't disagree with Rountree being favored, trusting either of these gentlemen at chalk prices is not something I suggest making a habit of.
However, despite both fighters arguably having more staying power than they are typically given credit for, I still find myself pulling the trigger on some chalk – albeit in a way that avoids being tied to a side.
Although Smith can be an admitted slow starter at times, he will respond in kind if his opponent comes in hot (e.g. his second to last fight in the UFC Apex against Devin Clark).
Couple that in with Rountree's early aggression and the chaos of the smaller octagon, and I suspect that the "Under 1.5 rounds" total is worth a look.
Aside from the fact that Rountree is 4-0 in the Apex, Smith – who officially stands at 1-2 opposite UFC-level lefties – has traditionally struggled with check right hooks from that stance.
Add in the brutal leg assaults that Rountree is also known for, and I suspect that he stops Smith early or gets submitted trying.
I'll also be looking at the "Smith by submission" prop (which can currently be found in the neighborhood of +600) as a potential bonus or hedge given its potency in the smaller cage – particularly if this fight extends past the halfway mark.
The Pick: Smith vs. Rountree Under 1.5 Rounds (-128 at FanDuel) | Bet to -145
