UFC Vegas 83 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez: Edge Goes to Explosive Striker (Saturday, December 9)

Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez Odds

Ranked bantamweights headline UFC Vegas 83 on Saturday night as No. 7-ranked contender Song Yadong takes on No. 15 Chris Gutierrez.

Both title hopefuls are looking to build some momentum after winning their most recent fight, and a win here tonight in the UFC Vegas 83 main event should further propel them up the 135-pound rankings.

While neither is a household name, Yadong vs. Gutierrez promises to be a fun standup fight with a just a small likelihood of grappling.

Here's a look at my Yadong vs. Gutierrez prediction and picks for the UFC main event fight on Saturday, Dec. 9.

Tale of the Tape

As mentioned above, both fighters should look to keep this one on the feet. They've combined for less than a takedown per 15 minutes across their UFC careers, and most of those were reactions to their opponents' grappling.

Which is helpful, because we can analyze this from a pure striking standpoint, starting with Yadong.

Standing from an orthodox stance, Yadong will mix in the occasional heavy head kick from his power side, but he is primarily a boxer. He has perhaps as much one-punch power as any fighter in the division with five of his nine UFC wins coming via knockout.

Through most of Yadong's career, he's been a headhunter who looks to end the fight with every punch he throws. That's generally not ideal for five-round fights – as those heavy shots use far more energy – but he mitigates that with relatively low output.

To his credit, Yadong also worked in far more feints and jabs in his recent fight, making it easier to find a home for the big shots.

He also leaves openings for his opponents with his big strikes, and he tends to leap into the pocket and load up on his punches. His handspeed and power mean he generally gets the better of those exchanges, but counterstrikers – especially those with a reach advantage, like Cory Sandhagen – can find openings.

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Yadong's reliance on a lunging left hook also leaves him more open to strikes form southpaw opponents, which was also exploited by Sandhagen.

On paper, neither of those tendencies seems like it'll help Gutierrez. He has the exact same reach as Yadong, and he's listed as an orthodox fighter.

However, that doesn't paint the full picture. Gutierrez's best weapon is by far his leg kicks, giving him a longer "effective range" than most fighters with his height/reach. He's also a master of maintaining that range with solid footwork, and the ever-present threat of leg kicks makes it hard for opponents to close the gap.

Also, while "El Guapo" is listed as an orthodox fighter, he frequently operates from a southpaw stance. The main benefit is to change the angles of his leg kicks, making it tougher for opponent's to check since they could come from either side.

Once he establishes some rhythym with his leg kicks, he'll work his way up his opponent with body and occasional head kicks.

Like Yadong, he'll also throw the occasional spinning attack, particularly when he's not worried about defending takedowns.

Unlike Yadong – who's been in two – this is also the first five-round UFC fight for the underdog. On paper he's the more suited of the pair for long fights – he trains at elevation in Colorado, and his leg/body work should serve him well the longer a fight goes.

Still, we don't truly know how a fighter will hold up over 25 minutes until we see it, so giving him the cardio edge is more "educated guess" than confident opinion.

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Yadong vs. Gutierrez Pick

Gutierrez's excellent striking defense, range management and footwork should go a long way against an opponent who loads up on single shots. I fully expect the underdog to look like the better fighter for long stretches here as he frustrates Yadong from range.

Of course, explosive power is a massive equalizer. Gutierrez needs to control this fight for 25 minutes while Yadong needs one big moment to either steal a round or end the fight.

Of course, those moments will become harder and harder to come by as the fight goes on, particularly if he's hobbled by a barrage of leg kicks.

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Therefore, my favorite way to play this fight is pairing a prefight bet on Yadong by knockout at +135 with a live bet on Gutierrez after two or so rounds.

Even if that results in a worse line than his prefight moneyline of +300 or so, I'm willing to get a somewhat worse price in order to remove the riskiest moments in the fight from the equation. Of course, ideally we catch an even better line.

Alternatively, if wanting to pursue this angle prefight, my Gutierrez pick would be the "decision only" prop on DraftKings at +240. That bet would be refunded if either fighter gets a finish. I fully expect Gutierrez to be the better minute winner here, especially in the later rounds.

The Pick: Song Yadong by KO (+135 at FanDuel) | Live bet on Gutierrez

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