Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 83 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's ESPN+ event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +12.1 units and a +4.2% ROI per bet to date.
This week marks the return of squad members Liam Heslin, Tony Sartori, Dan Tom, Billy Ward and Clint Maclean, who have combed the prop markets for value on tonight's card.
Check out their picks for the event, which streams on ESPN+ beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT), below. However, all of this week's prop picks come from the UFC Vegas 83 main card, which kicks off at 10 p.m. ET.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
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Liam Heslin: Andre Muniz by KO (+1500)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
Andre Muniz has world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he has also secured four professional wins by knockout.
Muniz is entering this UFC Vegas 83 bout with a substantial height (three inches) and reach (five inches) advantage. His opponent, "The Iron Turtle" Jun Yong Park (-176), has shown himself to be very talented, but he has struggled to deal with bigger, more physical middleweights at times, and Muniz (+148) will likely be stronger and a slicker grappler when both men are fresh.
Park has the edge in cardio, but he has been taken out via TKO in the past against a big Brazilian jiu-jitsu player in "Robocop" Gregory Rodrigues within the first two rounds. So I won't rule out Muniz's ability to do so. Add in the context of the division, and we have a recipe for potential value.
The "fight to end inside the distance" prop is heavily chalked (-220). "Ends by KO" (+175) is about market average, and the Muniz KO equity is only being given a 6.3% chance of taking place. Thats simply too low for middleweight given his opponent.
You may also want to sprinkle the early-KO props as Muniz is frontloaded with cardio and will likely break and get finished himself if the fight goes deep.
The Pick: Andre Muniz by KO (+1500 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Andre Muniz by Decision (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
Kicking off the UFC Vegas 83 main card at this weekend's UFC event is a middleweight bout between Junyong Park (-177) and Andre Muniz (+143).
I think if you're going to take a shot on the underdog here, then there are worse fliers to take than Muniz's decision prop at +600 via BetRivers. Yes, these fighters enter this bout in different forms, with Park winning each of his past four fights while Muniz is coming off two straight losses.
But those two losses came against Brendan Allen (who is about to enter the title conversation at 185 pounds) and Paul Craig (the No. 12-ranked contender who just lost to Allen as well). Both of those fighters are in a class far superior to the four guys that Park has beaten during this winning streak.
Muniz's strength is certainly in the grappling department, given his BJJ background and the fact that he is a third degree black belt. Muniz's gameplan has never wavered since joining the UFC: He will try to take you down and either out-grapple you or hunt submissions.
Given that he has lost each of his past two fights, I don't think it is farfetched that he will go back to what got him his latest win when he dominated Uriah Hall on the mat en route to an effortless 30-27 (x3) unanimous-decision victory. In that bout, Muniz landed four of his 10 takedown attempts and amassed a whopping 10-plus minutes of control time.
The reason this line is so long is that Park has terrific takedown defense, and he will certainly make Muniz work extremely hard to bring the fight to the mat. But, if anything, that just increases the likelihood of Muniz winning by decision versus submission in this fight, given that it will take a lot of time to get those takedowns going.
This dynamic is exactly how we saw the Eryk Anders and Park fight play out in May 2022. Since Anders struggled so much to get takedowns, the fight lasted until the final bell.
However, he still got them in, and he only narrowly lost the fight via split decision. On top of that, nine of the 11 media scores gave the fight to Anders.
And let's keep in mind that Muniz is a much, much better grappler than Anders.
The Pick: Andre Muniz by Decision (+600 at BetRivers)
Dan Tom: Jamie Mullarkey by KO (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
For this week's Prop Squad submission, I targeted a method prop with potential in the main-card attraction between Jamie Mullarkey (+150) and Nasrat Haqparast (-185).
Despite Mullarkey's durability betraying him in his defeats, I believe that he has some quiet stylistic edges that might be able to shine in this matchup.
Aside from the fact that Haqparast's chin has proven to not be impervious to well-placed left hands, the Afghan-born fighter has also struggled to defend leg kicks throughout his UFC tenure.
Not only does Mullarkey consistently attack legs, but the Ted Danson doppelganger also does an excellent job of punctuating exchanges with his left hook.
Mullarkey does carry a spotty record opposite UFC-level lefties (officially standing at 1-1 if you don't include his knockout loss to a stance-switching Muhammadjon Naimov), but the common culprit in all of those contests was check right hooks – a punch that appears devoid in Haqparast's arsenal.
Whether this ends early or goes late, this fight will likely play out closer than the odds indicate.
For that reason, I believe that the betting value is on the underdog in Mullarkey – especially at the odds you're getting on him to win by knockout.
The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey by KO (+600 at BetMGM)
Billy Ward: Anthony Smith by Submission (+600)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 a.m. ET
Prior to his fight against Ryan Spann in August, I thought it might be over for Anthony Smith. He’d dropped two straight fights, and he looked to be on the verge of breaking in half whenever he was hit.
However, he took a fairly convincing decision win from a dangerous fighter in Ryan Spann, and he proved he still has some fight left in him. Now, Smith (+165) takes on a stylistically somewhat similar opponent in Khalil Rountree Jr. (-200) – an uber-powerful but somewhat one-dimensional striker.
Smith accepted this fight on around 10 days' notice, which adds a degree of difficulty to the task at hand. He likely won’t have the cardio for 15 minutes of back-and-forth fighting.
But Smith, a veteran of 55 professional fights, is smart. He knows how dangerous Rountree is on the feet and that he can’t afford to take heavy shots to his surgically repaired leg on the feet. He also knows an early finish makes the cardio concern a non-factor – and helps him climb closer to a title shot than a decision win.
All of which should lead to a grappling-heavy game plan from the black belt. “Lionheart” has one of the most underrated grappling games in the sport with four wins in the UFC octagon via submission and 15 overall. That’s also 15 more submission wins than Rountree has in his career, if you’re keeping score.
Finally, the smaller UFC Apex cage probably favors Smith here. It should be easier to turn this one into a grappling match. All of the above makes his +600 submission line a strong value, and I’d play it down to +500 before pivoting to his regular finish prop.
The Pick: Anthony Smith by Submission (+600 at Betfred)
Clint MacLean: Song Yadong by Submission (+1150)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
Song Yadong is being placed in the UFC Vegas 83 main event, which was originally supposed to be a China showcase card overseas.
Yadong's opponent, Chris Gutierrez (+295), has been tough in his MMA career, but he is far from the A side here, and I fully expect Yadong (-385) to show out as a contender in this spot.
Yadong is a fighter who tends to like to work with his hands, so the KO is the obvious threat here. But Gutierrez has never been finished by strikes.
The only time in his MMA career that Gutierrez has been finished was when Raoni Barchelos grounded him and snached his neck.
Yadong is at Team Alpha Male and is an underrated wrestler, so if he decides to grapple, I expect an edge there. But more so, the club and sub is available herem and we are getting a wild number for a man with three submission wins on his record.
The Pick: Song Yadong by Submission (+1150 at BetRivers)
