Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker Odds
| Ankalaev Odds | +400 |
| Walker Odds | -535 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-180 / +140) |
| Venue | UFC Apex in Las Vegas |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker 2 on Saturday, Jan. 13 – our expert MMA prediction and pick.
The first UFC main event of 2024 is a rematch from just three months ago at UFC 294.
An errant knee from Magomed Ankalaev to a downed Johnny Walker – and then a miscommunication with the ringside doctor – saw the bout waived off after just over three minutes of action.
Nothing in that fight really changed my opinion of either fighter. The standup portions were close with Ankalaev landing the bigger strikes but Walker piling up leg kicks that would have paid dividends later in the fight.
Ankalaev landed the takedown that led to the illegal knee, but Walker was close to standing back up when the foul was delivered.
With that said, I'll present my analysis from the original breakdown I did of that fight below, with updates where relevant.
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Tale of the Tape
| Ankalaev | Walker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-1-1 | 21-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:40 | 6:58 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'6" |
| Weight | 204.5 pounds | 205.5 pounds |
| Reach | 75 inches | 82 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/2/1992 | 3/30/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.56 | 3.87 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.20 | 2.64 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.07 | 0.50 |
| TD Acc | 31% | 100% |
| TD Def | 86% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 1.0 |
A fighter named Magomed fighting out of Dagestan while sporting a full beard with no mustache certainly seems like the prototypical all-grappling build. While Ankalaev certainly can wrestle, it's clearly the Plan B from Ankalaev.
Even when Ankalaev does, he's not much of a submission threat, and he has just one career win via tap-out.
He's primarily leaned on his wrestling late in fights, or when he's clipped on the feet. A true counter-puncher, Ankalaev likes to stay just inside his opponent's danger zone, baiting him to over-extend on strikes that he responds to violently.
Ankalaev typically throws single shots, but he has solid kicks and a quick jab that comes from all angles.
While he's listed as an orthodox fighter, Ankalaev typically begins fights as a southpaw, switching stances only to "mirror" his opponents when they go southpaw. Despite his insistence on keeping an opposite stance, he's fairly lackluster at winning the lead-foot battle.
This was evident in his bout with Jan Blachowicz, who consistently kept his lead foot to the outside while brutalizing Ankalaev's lead leg with kicks.
Which eventually caused Ankalaev to lean on his grappling, with which he pulled away late into the fight. He was able to take down Blachowicz fairly easily late in the fight with a smothering top game that left no room for escape.
Other fighters have had more success in escaping back to their feet, though, with Blachowicz totally gassed by the end of their unplanned five-round fight.
This one is just three rounds, which should favor Walker to an extent.
The tallest and longest active light heavyweight following the departure of Jon Jones, Walker is an explosive striker with a somewhat questionable gas tank. He keeps opponents at bay on the feet with kicks from range, and he found success landing leg kicks on southpaw Hill.
The fight against Hill was a good microcosm of Walker's game. He was probably winning the fight from the outside behind kicks and jabs while controlling the lead-foot battle. Then, he got suckered into a brawl by the superior boxer, and he found himself looking up at the UFC Apex lights.
That was his last loss, and he's been much better at staying away from his opponents' strengths since then.
Walker defended the desperate takedown attempts by Paul Craig, finishing him with strikes without engaging on the ground. Against Ion Cutelaba, he was able to reverse position on the ground, and he used his superior jiu-jitsu to force a submission.
Walker's a brown belt with an underrated submission game that could potentially keep Ankalaev uncomfortable on the ground.
The zenith of Walker's growth was against Anthony Smith, against whom he took a far more patient approach. He maintained the range perfectly, slipping just out of range of Smith's punches while answering with leg kicks and straight shots of his own en route to a unanimous-decision victory that Smith was fortunate to survive to the final bell.
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Ankalaev vs. Walker Pick
One thing that has changed since October is the betting line. Ankalaev has moved from a -400 or so favorite at close last time to -550 heading into the rematch.
That doesn't make much sense to me. The fight was, at worst, closer than expected the first time around. Walker was also putting money in the bank with leg kicks, and he showed off his solid ground game in escaping back to the feet.
The five-round nature of this fight is the only real difference from last time. While that probably helps Ankalaev a bit, the over/under of 1.5 rounds suggests it won't be much of a factor. Additionally, Ankalaev's cardio edge might disappear after one too many calf kicks from the rangy Walker.
At worst, the line should be similar to where it closed last time, with Walker around +320. I thought the Brazilian was a solid value at that line, so he's a steal at nearly a full dollar better this time around.
I'd play Walker down to the +320 or so he was lined at the last time around.
The Pick: Johnny Walker (+410 at DraftKings or BetRivers)
