Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape Odds
(Editor's note: This fight was canceled on Friday after Manel Kape missed weight for the 125-pound matchup. Kape issued a statement saying he's been dealing with a recent illness.)
The UFC Vegas 84 co-headliner on Saturday features a rematch at flyweight with Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape.
Nicolau was able to narrowly edge out Kape on the scorecards of their first encounter, which took place back in 2021.
Since then, both fighters have managed to climb the standings at 125 pounds, finding variating levels of success between them.
Although Nicolau is coming off a quick loss to former title challenger Brandon Royval, the 31-year-old still retains his top-5 spot in the UFC flyweight contender rankings.
Whereas Kape, who has reeled off four wins in a row since losing to Nicolau, sits right behind his Brazilian counterpart at No. 6.
Here's a look at the Nicolau vs. Kape 2 odds, prediction and betting pick for Saturday, Jan. 13.
Tale of the Tape
| Nicolau | Kape | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-4-1 | 19-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:14 | 11:28 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'5" |
| Weight | 126 pounds | 129.5 pounds |
| Reach | 66 inches | 68 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/6/1993 | 11/14/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.66 | 5.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.14 | 4.51 |
| SS Defense | 66% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.48 | 0.65 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 37% |
| TD Def | 93% | 77% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.4 |
Considering that both men are naturally counter-fighters, forecasting action between these two can be tricky.
As we saw in their first fight, the lack of leads can really throw a counter-fighter off and lead to lower-output affairs (particularly when each party is able to catch the other off guard early).
Nicolau, who is the more likely of the two to lay in wait, can counter his opponents in a multitude of ways.
NICOLAU WAS FEROCIOUS TO THE FINISH 👊 #UFCOrlandopic.twitter.com/4AYgG4agup
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) December 4, 2022
Aside from the level-changing takedown threats that were successful against Kape in the first round of their 2021 affair, Nicolau also has a knack for finding his right hand and left hook on the fly.
Demonstrating an inherent feel for range, Nicolau shows sharp timing on his crashing right-hand counters and can parlay his misses into crisp left hooks that deceptively cover distance.
That said, Nicolau's propensity to dip and stay in exchanges has cost him in the past, so don't be surprised if he keeps it conservative with Kape.
The more flexible counter-fighter of the two, Kape keeps the tension high in his fights through his creative movements and dynamic range of attacks.
Whether he's impersonating Sean O'Malley's basketball-style feints or Conor McGregor's behind-the-back baseball pitcher pose, Kape is constantly trying to draw out reactions that he can capitalize on.
From quick hooks and uppercuts in close to explosive knees up the centerline, Kape can change a fight's trajectory at the drop of a dime.
Kape also has some underrated wrestling in his back pocket, but I'm not sure he'll be looking to take down the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in Nicolau.
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Nicolau vs. Kape Pick
Despite the oddsmakers opening the line at dead even odds, public money has come pouring in on the slightly younger fighter, listing Kape -290 and Nicolau +215.
Although Nicolau won their first encounter, seeing money come in on Kape doesn't surprise me in the slightest.
Aside from backfoot counter-strikers like Nicolau traditionally getting little love from the gen pop in the MMA sphere, gamblers have been extremely bullish on Kape since he stepped onto the UFC scene and are ardent that "their guy" was shorted on the scorecards when these two first tangled.
Although I believe that the decision could've fairly gone either way (as someone who admittedly picked and played Nicolau, granted), being overly confident on either side can be a dangerous stance given both the styles match and the inflation of the favorite.
For that reason, I don't blame anyone for taking a small stab at Nicolau for anything north of 2-1 odds out of principle.
I wouldn't be shocked to see Nicolau look to grapple more given the common culprit in Kape's defeats, but controlling the native of Portugal has been harder and harder to do since "Starboy" started training stateside.
Now, working with the likes of Eric Nicksick at Xtreme Couture, Kape has shown improvements in everything from his leg kicks to his ring generalship.
Couple all those factors with Nicolau's dipping propensities, and I suspect that Kape's patent knees and uppercuts will have ample opportunity to land this Saturday.
Don't get me wrong: From a moneyline perspective, it's 'dog or pass at this point.
But if you're looking to have action on the Kape side, then I suggest looking to play him by knockout – which I believe has good value at FanDuel, which is +180 as of this writing.
The Pick: Manel Kape by Knockout (+180 at FanDuel)
