Let's look at some early UFC Vegas 85 betting options, including some actionable plays now, with our UFC Luck Ratings for the Feb. 3 fight card, including the Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov main event on Saturday night.
UFC Vegas 85 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire 13-fight card is available on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*UFC Vegas 85 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Maximize your UFC betting action with our DraftKings promo code!
Nassourdine Imavov (-166) vs. Roman Dolidze (+140)
Both fighters in the UFC Vegas 85 main event had plenty of momentum this time last year, but both came crashing back to earth recently.
For Nassourdine Imavov, that included a decision loss to now-former middleweight champion Sean Strickland – in a fight Strickland took on short notice – followed by a no-contest against Chris Curtis. To be fair to Imavov, he was winning the Curtis fight, but Curtis isn't exactly a title contender himself.
Roman Dolidze took a four-fight winning streak that included three stoppages into a bout with perennial top-five contender Marvin Vettori, but he lost that fight clearly in a unanimous decision.
Both men had one prior UFC loss, also by decision.
That makes the Curtis defeat the only real "luck" factor for either fighter in this matchup. However, the market seems to be treating that as a win for Imavov, favoring him in the -165 range.
I think this is a quietly bad matchup for Imavov. He's picked up takedowns in three of his four UFC wins (four of five counting Curtis), with a 1-2 record in fights in which he's unable to secure one.
That's a bad trend against Dolidze, a former ADCC competitor who's extremely dangerous off his back. Still, that's not really a "luck" factor, and with the line shifting toward Imavov, we can wait on any Dolidze bets anyway.
Verdict: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Roman Dolidze Fairly Valued
Aliaskhab Khizriev (-180) vs. Makhmud Muradov (+150)
This is a weird fight, largely thanks to the inactivity from both fighters.
The favored Aliaskhab Khizriev earned his way into the UFC with a Contender Series victory way back in 2020, but he has fought just once since then: a submission win over Dennis Tiuliulin.
Makhmud Muradov isn't quite as extreme, but he also has just four fights since the start of 2020 following three straight 2019 wins.
All of which makes rust a considerable factor here. It also makes it difficult to truly assess either fighter since they theoretically could have made major changes to their game without anyone getting the chance to see it.
With that said, Muradov's only win in his last three fights was a decision over Bryan Barberena at middleweight. Barberena came into that fight on consecutive stoppage losses, and he had fought almost exclusively at 170 pounds prior to that bout. Not a great look for Muradov.
Khizriev is 14-0 in his pro career with nine finishes, and he has been dominant in his sporadic appearances. I've got no reason to think that changes against Muradov.
The line has bounced back slightly to the underdog after Khizriev was briefly -200, so we'll take that opportunity to jump on his moneyline. The best available odds are at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook, where he's -175.
Verdict: Aliaskhab Khizriev Undervalued
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Molly McCann (-285) vs. Diana Belbita (+230)
The UFC Vegas 85 prelims finish with a rematch absolutely nobody has been asking for: Diana Belbita gets her chance at revenge over Molly McCann.
Belbita lost a decision to McCann in her UFC debut in 2019, and she has gone 2-3 in the ensuing span.
"Meatball" McCann is 3-4 in that time frame, though it's worth noting that all five of their collective wins were against low-level competition.
The trends surrounding rematches are a mixed bag here. On the one hand, the former winner tends to win the second go-round at a high clip. On the other, the younger fighter typically has an edge, with Belbita about six years the junior of McCann. Both of those stats are relative to the betting line.
What breaks the tie here is the weight class. McCann is cutting to 115 pounds, where Belbita has fought since 2021. While McCann was on the smaller side at flyweight, I'm rarely in favor of fighters in their 30s dropping a weight class. It can feel like an easy solution to a losing skid, but smaller fighters tend to be faster – and speed diminishes with age.
McCann is a deserved favorite here, but the line on Belbita is too good to pass up. The best current line is +240 at BetMGM, but it seems to be trending upward, so it could be worth waiting a day or two for an even better number.
Verdict: Diana Belbita Undervalued
Themba Gorimbo (-245) vs. Pete Rodriguez (+200)
What do we really know about Pete Rodriguez?
He stepped up on short notice to take on Jack Della Maddalena in his UFC debut, getting predictably starched by the now-ranked welterweight. Then, he was rewarded for his courage with an absolute gift of a fight against Mike Jackson, and he finally rid the UFC of its least deserving fighter with an early knockout.
Neither one tells us much about his ability. The vast majority of UFC fighters (and probably a solid chunk of the general population) would have had similar results in both of those bouts.
Rodriguez is taking on Themba Gorimbo, who's also 1-1 in the UFC. However, Gorimbo's loss came against AJ Fletcher, who is now 1-3 in the promotion, while his win was against Takashi Sato by decision. Sato is 2-5 in the promotion, and the loss to Gorimbo was his fourth straight.
The broader point here is that both fighters are mostly unknowns, and yet one of them is more than a 2-1 favorite. While I'm not saying Rodriguez should be favored, he wins this one a lot more than one out of three times.
The public seems to agree with that sentiment, pushing his line down from +240 at open. Jump on it before it moves even further, with multiple books offering this line.
Verdict: Pete Rodriguez Undervalued
