Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober – the UFC Vegas 85 co-main event on Saturday, Feb. 3 – with my expert UFC prediction and pick.
Tonight's ESPN+ co-headliner is a fun fight between ranked lightweights in Moicano and Dober.
Moicano, whose popularity with fans has continued to grow despite his octagon absence, hasn't been seen in action since his win over Brad Riddell back in 2022.
The Brazilian spent 2023 recovering from an injury that took him out of a scheduled bout with Arman Tsarukyan, but he appears to be more than ready for war when going through his socials.
Dober, on the other hand, is coming off an impressive bounce-back win over Ricky Glenn that went down in October.
Here's my Moicano vs. Dober breakdown and my betting angle for Saturday's UFC Vegas 85 co-headliner at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
Tale of the Tape
| Moicano | Dober | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-5-1 | 27-12 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:02 | 7:39 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 5/21/1989 | 10/19/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.07 | 4.46 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.66 | 0.68 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 17% |
| TD Def | 74% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.1 |
Although both fighters are more well-rounded than given credit for, this fight comes with some serious "striker-vs.-grappler" feels attached.
An action-friendly southpaw, Dober does not mind sorting things out on the feet.
Possessing a left hand with comparable power to a cannonball, Dober does a decent job of keeping his opposition guessing with changeups to both the head and body.
When feeling in stride, Dober will attach some heavy kicks off the open side – especially if he can corral his counterpart toward the cage.
However, despite making improvements to both his striking and grappling defense, Dober is not beyond being countered for his aggression.
Enter Moicano.
Although Moicano is mainly known for his transitional jiu-jitsu prowess, the 34-year-old Brazilian has always carried a competent kickboxing game.
Keeping crisp punches on a hair-trigger, Moicano is not afraid to fire back by countering in combination.
From hard hooks to the ability to connect off of collar ties, Moicano can mix up his range of attacks fairly smoothly.
That said, Moicano's more realistic path to victory likely resides in the grappling realm.
Moicano may not be a lights-out wrestler, but his chains and transitions look to have markedly improved since he moved shop to American Top Team in South Florida.
Whether he's shooting in the open or looking to shuck by his opposition in the clinch, Moicano seems much more capable and confident when it comes to establishing his win conditions.
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Moicano vs. Dober Pick
Despite opening at pick'em odds, public money has been trickling in on the Brazilian, listing Moicano -190 and Dober +150 as of this writing.
I can understand the love for Moicano at his initial opener, but his price tag is starting to get a bit too steep for my blood.
And even though I believe that the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex will favor Moicano's submission sensibilities from a stylistic standpoint, the small cage can also be indiscriminate regarding the chaos it encourages.
For that reason, I believe that the under carries the most "bang for your buck" from a betting perspective.
Not only does the stylistic matchup and setting portend for some serious violence, but both fighters tend to secure a majority of their finishes before the 1.5 mark from a total perspective.
I'm officially picking Moicano to win (and also sprinkling on him small to win in Round 2), but put me down for the "under 1.5 rounds" for any price under -145.
The Pick: Moicano vs. Dober Under 1.5 Rounds (-117 at BetRivers)
