Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Vegas 85 props for Saturday's ESPN+ fight card, including a Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov prop pick.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +24.6 units and a +7.9% ROI per bet to date. Those results include big prop scores with Gillian Robertson by KO (+950) and Neil Magny by Round 2/3 KO (+1800) in the most recent UFC event.
This week's UFC Vegas 85 event kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. And we have five prop bets for the card, courtesy of Tony Sartori, Liam Heslin, Billy Ward, Dan Tom and Clint MacLean.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel
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Liam Heslin: Molly McCann by Submission (+850)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
This week's MMA Prop Squad pick with the longest odds is coming in the featured prelim and rematch between strawweights Molly McCann (-260) and Diana Belbita (+215).
And though this pick is our longest prop shot at UFC Vegas 85, the rationale is pretty straightforward.
McCann won the duo's first meeting back in 2019, when she used five takedowns, one submission attempt and 3:39 of control time to sweep the cards with 30-25 scores (which included a Belbita point deduction for a fence-grab).
Obviously, a lot can happen in four-plus years, but if anything, I think McCann is even better prepared to implement a similar game plan – and even get the submission finish this time.
Sure, McCann has never earned a win via tap-out, but she's been training with Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett and skilled practitioners to continue to fine-tune her skills. McCann even won a recent grappling match with a first-round armbar. That's bound to provide at least a little confidence heading into Saturday's potential grapplefest.
Also, keep in mind that Belbita has been submitted four times in her career and three via armbar – including to Liana Jojua immediately after that first McCann fight. (Plus, Belbita was openly contemplating retirement after her most recent fight. That's never a good look – and it's almost always fadeable.)
The Pick: Molly McCann by Submission (+850 at BetRivers)
Tony Sartori: Makhmud Muradov by KO (+450)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
There is a fascinating middleweight bout set to take place between two unranked contenders on Saturday's main card as Aliaskhab Khizriev (-154) takes on Makhmud Muradov (+130). Khizriev brings in his perfect 14-0 professional record while Muradov returns with a more experienced yet more flawed 26-8 mark.
Muradov has spent far more time in a UFC cage, where he's 4-2 with his two losses coming to big-time contender Caio Borralho and the always-game Gerald Meerschaert. Meanwhile, Khizriev has yet to face anyone of real challenge thus far.
This is why I am a tad skeptical of Khizriev's inflated -145 price on the moneyline, and if we are going to take a flier on the underdog to win, then there are worse bets to make than taking Muradov to win by KO/TKO at +450 via Betway. First of all, this number should almost be taken blindly from a pure value perspective: This price is between +320 and +380 at all the other books at the time of writing.
But, even despite the mathematical edge of taking +450, I believe that Muradov by KO is his most likely path to victory. Yes, he is a takedown machine, but he also carries some strong power as two of his past three wins came by KO/TKO while he also knocked down Bryan Barberena twice en route to a unanimous-decision victory.
Of Muradov's 26 professional wins, 17 have come by knockout. Khizriev has never been stopped inside the cage, which is why this number is so long, but he also hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy either.
This will be the biggest test of his career by far, and I am not sold that he is as good as advertised. We know Khizriev is going to want to wrestle/grapple, but there is no doubt in my mind that Muradov can hang in there with him in that department.
If Muradov can outlast the constant shooting and eventually wear down his opponent, then I don't think it is out of the question he capitalizes in the later rounds with a knockout over the exhausted Khizriev.
The Pick: Makhmud Muradov by KO (+450 at Betway)
Billy Ward: Natalia Silva by KO (+540)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
The main-card bout between flyweights Viviane Araujo (+270) and Natalia Silva (-335) is something of an unstoppable-force-meets-immovable-object matchup. The heavily favored Silva is 4-0 to start her UFC career with two knockouts in those four fights.
Araujo has 10 fights in the UFC with nine of those seeing the judges, including all four of her losses. She’s been finished just once in her professional career, back in 2017 in a regional strawweight fight.
Something has to give here, and my money – or at least a small chunk of it – is on Araujo’s streak of making it to the judges' decision. There are a couple of factors at play.
First, everyone has a great chin – until they don’t. We’ve seen that story play out plenty of times with other fighters (including fellow main-carder Drew Dober) over the years. Araujo is now 37, and she was dropped by Andrea Lee in a 2022 fight.
The other factor is of course Silva herself. She’s one of the most aggressive fighters in the division, landing more than five significant strikes per minute – including a pair of highlight-reel head-kicks in her knockout victories. She’s also a decade younger with a big edge in speed on the feet.
Over the course of her career, Silva has more wins by submission (seven) than knockout (five), so I wouldn’t fault anyone for playing the inside-the-distance line (+280 on FanDuel), but in the spirit of the Prop Squad, I’m swinging big – and hoping Silva does the same.
The Pick: Natalia Silva by KO (+540 at BetRivers)
Dan Tom: Randy Brown by Submission (+400)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a main-card attraction between Randy Brown (-275) and Muslim Salikhov (+225).
If you like Brown to win the fight but don't like the price tag attached to his moneyline, then I suggest taking a look at the Jamaican-American to win by submission, which can be widely found at 4-1 odds.
Although Brown has had a propensity to play with his food in past matchups, the 33-year-old has recently been training with Marquez MMA (home of fighters such as Joe Pyfer and Sean Brady) to further sharpen his submission-grappling prowess.
This change in camp and focus was apparent in Brown's last fight opposite Wellington Turman, in which he appeared much more grappling-focused.
Considering that a majority of Salikhov's losses come by way of submission, it's a no-brainer for Brown to take down the Russian striker this Saturday.
Add in the fact that they will be fighting in the smaller octagon (which tends to encourage more action and finishes alike), and I can't help but sprinkle on Brown to opportunistically snatch up a submission before the final bell.
The Pick: Randy Brown by Submission (+400 at FanDuel)
Clint MacLean: Roman Dolidze by Submission (+575)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
We have seen a resurrection in fighters who are a physical force having success in the UFC. Dricus Du Plessis is a perfect example of just being too much for his opponents.
Saturday's UFC Vegas 85 headliner Roman Dolidze is cut from the same cloth.
Dolidze (+138) is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and he is a big and physical middleweight. We have seen his opponent, Nassourdine Imavov (-164), evolve as a fighter. But we have also seen him in some bad situations, in which he tends to slow down in his fights, leading to mistakes.
Saturday's ESPN+ main event is taking place in the small cage of the UFC Apex facility, and that tends to favor the grappler and the more physical fighter.
I believe that at some point in this fight, Imavov will tire and make a mistake. And when that happens, Dolidze will grab a limb or a neck to end thins.
The Pick: Roman Dolidze by Submission (+575 at BetRivers)
