Let's look at some UFC Vegas 86 betting options with our UFC Luck Ratings for the Saturday, Feb. 10 fight card, including the Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer headliner and Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili co-headliner.
UFC Vegas 86 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire 14-fight card is available on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*UFC Vegas 86 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Maximize your UFC betting action with our DraftKings promo code!
Joe Pyfer (-238) vs. Jack Hermansson (+195)
For the second week in a row, we have a middleweight main event that will go a long way to determining the back half of the official UFC contender rankings.
Veteran Jack Hermansson is currently ranked 10th but has alternated wins and losses over the last five years after a strong start to his UFC career.
He's looking to fend off Joe Pyfer, who's off to a 3-0 start to his UFC career after joining the promotion in 2022. With all three of his wins via finish, there isn't much of a "luck" angle on his record.
It's worth noting that Dana White and UFC brass are big fans of Pyfer, however. That's led to some very winnable early matchups – and perhaps a premature push into a main-event spot.
"The Joker" has far more experience in main events than Pyfer. This will be has fifth scheduled five-round UFC fight, with three of those going the distance. One of those was a very close split decision loss to Sean Strickland, his only non-unanimous result in the UFC.
Losing a close decision to the then-future and now-former champ isn't anything to look down on.
Still, Hermansson is 35 and probably has his best days behind him, which explains the heavy favoritism for Pyfer with the current UFC Vegas 85 odds. This line seems a bit long but is broadly correct from a prefight perspective, so we'll call it fairly valued for now.
This seems like a good spot to bet Pyfer early or Hermansson late/live, but we'll get more into that later in the week.
Verdict: Joe Pyfer vs. Jack Hermansson Fairly Valued
Dan Ige (-175) vs. Andre Fili (+145)
There was a time when Dan Ige looked to be a future title contender. He ripped off six straight wins in two years from 2018-2020 and was near the top of the featherweight rankings.
Since then he's gone 3-5 with all of his losses via unanimous decision – putting him solidly in the "fun fighter" of "gatekeeper" (in the most complimentary sense of the word) category.
Looking through Ige's record, he's undefeated against unranked opponents since his debut with his five recent losses coming against currently ranked opponents (and Chan Sung Jung, who retired with a number next to his name). Ige's lone win against a ranked opponent was a split decision over Edson Barboza that probably should've gone the other way.
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Which makes this an interesting fight against Andre Fili – since we could say most of the same things about him. Both fighters even have identical results against common opponents Bryce Mitchell and Calvin Kattar.
It's worth noting that Ige was originally booked to face Lerone Murphy, making this a somewhat late-notice fight for Fili. That's probably why this line is set where it is as these fighters are extremely similar from a resume standpoint.
I'm not sure that's enough of a factor to justify the line, so I'll be taking a sprinkle on Fili.
Let's wait a bit and see if we can get a slightly better number, though, as it's moved in both directions a bit already.
Verdict: Andre Fili Undervalued
Rodolfo Viera (-125) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+105)
This is a rebooking from UFC Sao Paulo in November, when Armen Petrosyan pulled out at the last minute due to an illness. The line is basically the same as in that fight, though it has shifted slightly toward Rodolfo Viera.
Which makes sense, given the dynamics at play.
This is a pretty clear "striker vs. grappler" matchup with Viera representing the grappler. The original booking was in the larger UFC cage used on the road while this one is in the smaller UFC Apex octagon. That favors the grappler on paper as it forces the fighters into a closer range.
Beyond that, Petrosyan has a 1-1 record against Brazilian grapplers with the win coming via split decision. Media members slightly favored his opponent, so he's potentially overvalued based on an undeserved win on his record.
While I like Viera at his price, I'm even more interested in my original betting angle for this matchup. I wouldn't fault anyone for hopping on Viera now – I'd make him a somewhat larger favorite than the current line – but there's a better way to play it.
Verdict: Rodolfo Viera Undervalued
Jeremiah Wells (-170) vs. Max Griffin (+142)
There are two ways we can view Jeremia Wells' last appearance. Option No. 1 is as one of the most dominant losses in recent memory. Wells was cruising to an easy victory over Carlston Harris with live odds approaching -1000 heading into the final frame. From there, the grappling specialist was hoisted with his own petard, getting caught in an anaconda choke.
Which explains the other way to view his performance: Wells has no cardio.
To be fair, I'm not entirely sure it was cardio that led to the loss versus just making a mistake, but either way, it's not a great look. Through that lens, it's easy to see why Wells isn't a heavier favorite – with an argument to be made that the line should be even closer.
What breaks the tie so to speak is the "Dann Stupp fight for your money" factor. Rather than accept defeat and tap to the submission, Wells fought it to the final moment, taking a nap in the cage rather than surrender. If I'm laying juice on a fighter, that's the kind of commitment I want.
On the other side, Griffin is 1-2 over his last three with the lone win a split decision over Tim Means. This is a fight to get Wells back on track, and he should be a bigger favorite – though consider hedging off with a live bet if he can't get Griffin out of there.
Verdict: Jeremiah Wells Undervalued
Zac Pauga (-125) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+114)
The Ultimate Fighter Season 30 runner-up Zac Pauga is now 1-2 in the promotion officially, and he returned to light heavyweight following his knockout loss to Mohammed Usman at heavyweight.
His lone win in the promotion was over Jordan Wright – a former middleweight who's now out of the promotion after a fourth straight loss.
Bogdan Guskov has just one UFC fight, a short-notice assignment against Volkan Oezdemir back in September. While that one didn't go well for the newcomer, he made his debut on little notice against a top-10 opponent, so it's hard to read too much into that.
While it would be nice to have some time to dig deeper into the tape here, it doesn't seem like the plus-money on Guskov is going to last long. Late last week he was around +135, with the line dropping since then.
I'm jumping in on Guskov now, and hopefully if further tape study pushes me back in the other direction, there will be an opportunity for an arbitrage bet on Pauga at a better price late in the week.
